Moderator: “Then there’s going to be next week in Switzerland this what’s called a peace summit. Russia’s not invited. China’s not attending. Is it, what how would you label it?”
Anastasiya Shapochkina (Lecturer in geopolitics at Science Po and President of Eastern Circles): “First of all, this thing that’s - I think the peace summit is designed by the - as far as I understand - by the Ukrainian diplomatic establishment as a, as as a way to regroup as many nations as possible behind the peace plan of President Selenskyj and it’s a way to also test the diplomatic effort of the last two and a half years, to see if Ukraine can actually gather as a sign of support, international support, not just western partners but also as many as possible partners from the global south and thus showing and making people show --”
Moderator: “As we’re speaking the Ukrainian president has taken a quick trip away from Europe to Saudi Arabia, he’s met with the Crown Prince there.”
Anastasiya Shapochkina: “Not very logical, but exactly see, like in terms of geography - very logical in terms of the peace process, exactly - because of course Saudi Arabia as a crucial Regional actor anti-iran actor, while Iran being aligned with Russia, Saudi Arabia is traditionally aligned either with the US or against against Iran, at least more recently, and this is a crucial player who can influence other countries in the region, because what Ukraine is aiming at at the peace Summit is not just quality but also quantity and aiming to kind of make it as an alternative to the UN General Assembly Gatherings and votings where Russia is very heavily present and influencing as an alternative kind of gathering - to show how, much support it can actually garner and this is going to be a real test, I think - to Ukrainian diplomacy, really just to show for it -- however of course whether about peace we’re going to see any breakthroughs, I do not expect to see any actual breakthroughs about peace. It’s not about peace negotiations it’s about the support for Ukraine, diplomatic support and then behind diplomatic support, countries like Saudi Arabia of course can play a much greater role about which I expect them to be more circumspect.”
Moderator: “Elizabeth Braw, uh Selenskyj very badly wanted Joe Biden to attend, it’s not going to happen - instead he’s going to send his vice president Kamila Harris - why, why does he, why has Ukraine’s president invested so much political capital in this uh summit next week in Switzerland?”
Elizabeth Braw: “Well as as was just said it’s it’s an effort to show that the countries supporting Ukraine in this war are not just Western countries and and uh from my own experience for example -- when I when I talk to Indian audiences I always hear, well you know the West shouldn’t tell us what position to tell about, to to take on Ukraine and we decide for ourselves -- so it’s important for for Selenskyj to be able to show that support for Ukraine is not just a western thing, it’s not just a western dictated thing - and that really matters beyond diplomatic gestures, because a number of non-western countries uh have essentially remained on the sidelines and while being on the sidelines, have also uh directly or indirectly been supporting uh the Russian economy, by continuing to to trade with Russia -- because they haven’t imposed sanctions they essentially uh not only continue to trade with Russia but undermine Western sanctions and and they would say well it’s up to us whom we trade with but that uh essentially, well it strength- strengthens Russia weakens Ukraine even as their diplomatic posture is that they are neutral, so that as many of these countries as Selinskyj can, can convince to publicly side with Ukraine in some fashion uh - the better it is for for for for Ukraine in this war regardless of the outcome of of any talks at at this peace summit or anywhere else.”
Moderator: “Gulliver Gragg, Selenskyj -- how’s it being felt where you are, the the fact that he’s he’s gone off on you know for all these for all these summitry uh the uh..
Gulliver Gragg: “There have been some opposition voices criticizing him for being away from the country for such a long time, he was in Singapore the Philippines and he came back for one day, then he went to Sweden then of course France, Germany now these but these are all really very important meetings, and I think that you know there’s a broad understanding um of what the idea of this so-called peace summit um in Switzerland is, and I think even Ukrainians who are critical of Selenskyj and his team on a number of issues, aren’t really um suggesting that this isn’t fundamentally a good idea - because, clearly - the idea of breaking the Russian Narrative of Russia and the rest versus uh the west - by showing that Ukraine’s got a lot of countries from the rest of the world on its side as well - is, is not a bad idea in itself, but um the way things are going with the preparations of it um it doesn’t look that good - I mean earlier ukrainians were saying that if they had a hundred countries taking part they’d call it a success, and they were expecting at least Joe Biden to be there, they were expecting the Chinese to be represented albeit at a lower level -- the chinese aren’t coming they’re, putting forward a different proposal, Joe Biden’s not coming and it looks like falling well short of the um target of 100 countries so um - you know, we’ll see what happen happens in Switzerland um -- we’ll see whether or not there is a final declaration at the uh at the end of this summit, I mean I think that if there is - the ukrainians will feel that they’ve got something to work with going forward - if there isn’t, then some people in Ukraine may be saying that the Selenskyj team managed it badly, and um flopped it.”
Moderator “Selenskyj has had the Midas touch since uh, at least on the world stage uh since February uh of 2022, but from what we’ve just talked about so far in this discussion - Shina, this cabinet shake up ahead of a big conference, where you’re trying to convince people that you’re a good country to invest in. The fact that they’re not going to get as many participants in this peace summit next week as they would have liked -- is Selenskyj losing the magic the the midas touch?”
Elizabeth Braw: “Yeah, I think that there is there kind of different um ways of seeing it right, we see this as this is what’s on the surface so to say this is the what’s, what’s going on now on the other hand when you fix a big target and you announce it -- that’s that looks very good, but also it’s a target for yourself, it means that even if you fall short of it - it may still be good for you, because it depends who are the people who are actually going to show up, who wouldn’t have shown up in the general assembly of the UN -- if the big regional players heavy weights like Saudi Arabia are brought on board - etc, etc. I don’t know if there was a realistic expectation that Biden is going to actually again come to Europe - In such a short time even given his physical condition honestly -- ”
Gulliver Gragg: “He has to be at the G7 right?
Aint it --”Moderator “Yeah, let’s talk about that. Before Bürgenstock in Switzerland, there’s a G7 Summit in Italy uh he’s he’s already boarded the Air Force One and he’s coming back to Europe!”
Elizabeth Braw: “*interrupting* -- that didn’t work, that didn’t work at all, then then then they blew it - but but just to say that for me even if they fall short of the expectation already that we have to see how many people do they manage to g - to garner and whether whether it’s going to be a successful exercise -- in general the exercise is a communication exercise. Nobody expects any result from the summit, in sense of peace decisions, some -- the decisions about the progress in the war, what’s going to happen to the future, what’s going to happen to security of europe --- it is indeed a purely image-, communication exercise and in that way - maybe would maybe -- it’s a message in---including from by the US that - better concentrate your efforts, on something that can actually yield results - like for example reconstruction meetings, or the uh the reconstruction summit in Berlin - or the Washington Summit hopefully - hopefully leads also results that’s the big one also, we forgot so…”
Moderator “Elizabeth Braw, did you hear that, there’s a fourth summit - we didn’t mention it yet it’s the NATO Summit taking place uh actually it’s due to begin the day after the second round of uh french legislative elections - we’ll know then if the far right’s in power or not in this country, uh is that the big one?”
Elizabeth Braw: “Well it is the big one as as far as NATO is concerned, but it’s not going, it’s not going to to lead any breakthroughs when it comes to the Ukraine war and and since we are also discussing people who, who will not be at various Summits -- the Washington Summit will be just a few days after the UK elections, so it’s uh it’s who will participate from the UK government is is still shrouded in mystery - and we may not know until the day of of the summit [doesnt matter much all parties are pro Ukraine] this day - the summit begins who will represent the UK but um the Washington Summit really is about NATO itself and yes, there will be various uh overtures to Ukraine -- shows of support, but this is about uh decisions uh about NATO internally how to to, how the alliance should be set up - it’s it’s much less about Ukraine, but I think that the the - what has changed in these past two years is that Selenskyj has become a regular guest at various gatherings at which Ukraine would not have been invited to -- which Ukraine would not have been invited two and a half years ago, and he’s he’s invited as essentially as a star guest and a special guest uh and not as a full participant - but it’s it’s it is striking, because Ukraine is always the that additional guest that is invited and and then when it comes to to Selenskyj lo-- losing his midas touch, that was always going to happen -- it was going to be uh trendy and and uh important, right -- at the beginning of the war for everybody to to support Ukraine and they wanted to -- they felt very passionately about it, it was always the case that, that passion was going to wane after a while and it has waned by the fact that he is continuing these uh uh these constant visits to the West - is both a sign of the fact that he’s invited to the west and other countries, is both a sign of the fact that he’s still invited -- still welcome and of the fact that these countries feel that is still there is, still a viable case for supporting Ukraine - if they didn’t think that was there was anything more they could do he would not be invited.”
Summary: “Whats he doing?” “Well, Idk - it seems like hes still getting support, so let him.”
