Georgia, oh my Georgia

29. Oktober 2024

The offi­cial results show the Geor­gi­an Dream’s share slight­ly lower com­pa­red to the Gor­bi exit polls com­mis­sio­ned by pro-government Ime­di TV, while the offi­cial results are in dra­ma­tic con­trast to the exit polls con­duc­ted by Har­risX (for pro-opposition Mta­va­ri Arkhi) Edi­son Rese­arch (for opposition-leaning Formula-TV), with the lat­ter being known tra­di­tio­nal­ly as most accu­ra­te in election-day pol­ling. Both Har­risX and Edi­son Rese­arch had pro­jec­ted the oppo­si­ti­on as winners.

src: click

Dif­fe­rence (Geor­gi­an Dream results) Edi­son pol­ling (40.9%) to offi­cial 2024 elec­tion result (53.93%) = 13,03% points

Voter tur­nout 58.94%

Geor­gi­an popu­la­ti­on: 3.8 million

3.8 mil­li­on -23% (round­about, see click) to get eli­gi­ble voters is 2.93

2.93 mil­li­on - (100-58,94=41,06)% = 1,73 mil­li­on to account for voter turnout.

13,03% of 1,73 mil­li­on = 225.419 of alle­ged (by oppo­si­ti­on par­ties) wron­gly allo­ca­ted votes.

Geor­gi­an CEC of cour­se now decla­red the Mar­neu­li district results inva­lid becau­se of the aformen­tio­ned video evi­dence of bal­lot stuffing.

That district has a popu­la­ti­on of 20.211 minus 23% for eli­gi­ble voters minus 41,06% to account for voter tur­nout (20211-23%)-41,06% = 9172 voters.

Geor­gi­an Dream Vote per­cen­ta­ge in Mar­neu­li: 79,62%

79,62% of 9172 = 7303

So now we have 7303 votes of an alle­ged 225.419 frau­du­lent­ly cast under reevaluation!

Gre­at, so whats next?

My Vote poin­ted to “mass” inci­dents of voters being given two or more bal­lots ins­tead of one during the first half of the day, and said the­re were also cases whe­re the ruling party’s field was alrea­dy mar­ked on the bal­lot. The mis­si­on said it also “beca­me clear” that nume­rous reports of con­fis­ca­ting or “ren­ting” voters’ ID cards and collec­ting their per­so­nal infor­ma­ti­on during the cam­pai­gn were used to car­ry out the same rig­ging scheme.

[…]

Accord­ing to My Vote, as of 10-11 p.m., the mission’s obser­vers iden­ti­fied 347 vio­la­ti­ons of the mar­king pro­cess, 89 reports of vio­la­ti­ons of the secrecy of the vote, 341 cases of unaut­ho­ri­zed per­sons in the pol­ling sta­ti­on, and 96 cases of phy­si­cal vio­lence, thre­ats, and con­fron­ta­ti­ons, as well as 163 cases of obst­ruc­tion of My Vote observers.

The vio­la­ti­ons were “sys­te­ma­tic” in some are­as, inclu­ding in Mar­neu­li, Bol­ni­si, Kare­li, Gori, Kas­pi, Khas­h­u­ri, Sen­a­ki, Garda­ba­ni, Gur­jaa­ni, Signaghi, Dedo­p­lists­ka­ro, Kobu­leti, Sag­a­re­jo, Batu­mi, Zug­di­di, Tela­vi, Chkho­rot­s­ku, Akhalts­ik­he, Mts­k­he­ta, Akhal­ka­la­ki, Rus­ta­vi, Gld­ani (Tbi­li­si), Isa­ni (Tbi­li­si), Sam­go­ri (Tbi­li­si), and Kha­ragau­li districts.

src: click

Total popu­la­ti­on of the alle­ged districts:

20211+8967+6654+48143+13423+26135+21596+10753+8024+
1485+5940+16546+10871+172100+42998+19629+3141+17903+
7940+8295+130100+177500+125610+177844+1965 ==

(1.083.773-23%)-41,06% = 491857 actu­al peop­le voting. (Inclu­ding Marneuli.) 

Geor­gi­an dreams alle­ged vote per­cen­ta­ge = 53.93%

53.93% of 491857 == 265258 poten­ti­al­ly affec­ted voting opportunities.

So thats 265.258 poten­ti­al­ly affec­ted voting oppor­tu­nities out of an alle­ged 225.419 alle­ged frau­du­lent votes. (The 13,03% dif­fe­rence of Geor­gi­an Dreams results in exit polls com­pa­red to offi­cial results.)

Mea­ning 8.5 out of 10 of tho­se 265.258 MUST have voted at least twice, for the result to be exp­lai­ned by dou­ble voting.

For tho­se (225.419 alle­ged frau­du­lent votes) the NGO My Vote offers up

Accord­ing to My Vote, as of 10-11 p.m., the mission’s obser­vers iden­ti­fied 347 vio­la­ti­ons of the mar­king pro­cess, 89 reports of vio­la­ti­ons of the secrecy of the vote, 341 cases of unaut­ho­ri­zed per­sons in the pol­ling sta­ti­on, and 96 cases of phy­si­cal vio­lence, thre­ats, and con­fron­ta­ti­ons, as well as 163 cases of obst­ruc­tion of My Vote observers.

src: click

347 cases of vio­la­ti­ons in the mar­king pro­cess, and 89 vio­la­ti­ons of the secrecy of the vote, as well as 96 cases of poten­ti­al threats.

347+89+96 = 532

Wolf­ram Alpha, what per­cen­ta­ge is 532 out of 225419?

Ans­wer: 0,236%

Which we all lear­ned in the case of the US elec­tions by now is not sta­tis­ti­cal­ly signi­fi­cant. To pro­ve that the vio­la­ti­ons were “sys­te­ma­tic”.

Geor­gia, oh my Georgia.

So asi­de from this making no sen­se sta­tis­ti­cal­ly, any other plea­sant surprises?

Well…

Spea­ker Papuash­vi­li Claims Oppo­si­ti­on, CSOs Spread “Election-Related Disinformation”

Geor­gi­an Par­lia­ment Spea­ker Shal­va Papuash­vi­li defen­ded the ruling Geor­gi­an Dream party’s high­ly con­tro­ver­si­al near­ly 54 per­cent vic­to­ry in the Octo­ber 26 elec­tions, deny­ing alle­ga­ti­ons of fraud by oppo­si­ti­on and obser­vers. At the Octo­ber 28 brie­fing, he accu­sed oppo­si­ti­on for­ces and civil socie­ty orga­niz­a­ti­ons of try­ing to stir unrest in the coun­try through dis­in­for­ma­ti­on cam­pai­gns. “They don’t want to accept people’s will,” he said.

src: click

con­tras­ting this:


(That Del­ta shows the 13,03% dif­fe­rence in 2024.)

Sigh…

So 2 minu­te summery?

- Dou­ble voting in the districts whe­re irre­gu­la­ri­ties were docu­men­ted, cant exp­lain the dis­crepan­cy in alle­ged votes.
- The docu­men­ted bal­lot stuf­fing (one or two cases docu­men­ted) cant exp­lain the dis­crepan­cy in alle­ged votes.
- The docu­men­ted alle­ged instan­ces of voting irre­gu­la­ri­ties are not sta­tis­ti­cal­ly signi­fi­cant to account for an alle­ged vote dis­crepan­cy of 225419 votes

Which lea­ves elec­tro­nic voting mani­pu­la­ti­on as the most likely means remai­ning to account for a 225419 votes dis­crepan­cy (13,03% points) bet­ween the usual­ly most reli­able exit poll pol­ling agen­cy and the offi­cial elec­tion result figures.









Hinterlasse eine Antwort