So here is your short track on what russian disinformation is according to a Wilson Center panel of experts:
- Not one step eastward didnt exist
- There were no Biolabs
- We did it because of the Nazis, which no one believed, haha
- Its a war with the west
- Mearsheimer IS BEST WHEN HE IS CANCELED
Thats the entire knowledge of the US field of disinformation studies in four and a half bullet points.
And here is what I see when I’m watching that video.
- Just believe in yourself, and the country and us being good, as a prerequisite to “counter disinformation” check
Societal impact of that - horrible, terrible.
- Just stone everyone who mentions that “not one step eastward” did exist as an oral meeting narrative spiel that was omnipresent in debates around germanys unification, but that it never was put into writing (nsarchive.gwu.edu), and there were no contracts that ever said as much.
- Also dont mention that Mearsheimer picked that up, not because of russian propaganda, but because of international relations theory, namely the realist school of international relations theory -- the one he is the main proponent of currently, and for that was deplatformed on March 6th 2022, two weeks after the war started, by an enitre newly founded “panel interview series” at the Hoover Institution for holding that opinion (three prong strategy play, see: The New Yorker article)
Societal impact of that - devastating
Why? Because in germany that was a large minorities shortcut on what was happening in foreign politics over the better part of 15 years. Namely that Merkel and her french counterpart prevented Nato enlargement. Because they - and Merkel stated as such, thought that it would prevent a military confrontation. (The last time, 11 days ago: click)
Why? Because the inverse - that Ukraine just should be able to enter NATO, just because they really want to and have written that into their constitution - just so obviously is not the case.
Why? Because from a narratives perspective, this is the closest narrative expression to “russia identified its black sea harbors (40% of russian exports, power projection into the mediteranian, black sea regions and africa) as a strategic asset, and at least partly went to war because of those, also because they were under high risk of loosing all of that in 20 years time, when their power through military means concept would not work as well anymore because of demographic reasons.” A stance which Fiona Hills source at the Brookings institution:
and
Herfried Münkler
and
Stoltenberg
and
Merkel
Have held over time to explain what they have witnessed, and as a narrative, had impacted their decision process at the time.
Granted, Merkel without being burdened by the majority of ukrainians being for NATO membership - but the others even in disregard of that nuance.
So out of every potential narrative (including Putin wants to be a Tsar and reconquer Poland, and the Baltic States, not just Moldowa and Georgia) out there that still is the closest one to a more complex narrativ including detail that doesnt resort to fortune telling. Or exaggeration. (Putin is taking parts of europe with 200.000, later 600.000 active soldiers, … (1.5 million german soldiers fought in Poland, someone ought to notice the subsequently needed two more reqruitement pushes, they just have to…))
So just because its “the russian talking point” you cant forbid people to think along the lines of that mental shortcut. Regardless of if Gorbachev said thats never been what he agreed on in those negotiations over the unity of Germany.
- Its a war with the west - is currently, as we speak, picked up by western propaganda, as the next war narrative, to counter the german peoples reluctance of “causing” or sleepwalking into world war 3. Because - and now everyone repeat the ZDF narrative with me - we already are in a war with russia. Just a hybrid one. Which we cant fight, because we wouldnt know how to and which we need a strong NATO for to fight for us.
Societal impact: No one fucking believes it.
At least not right now, when the chances for a frozen conflict are as high as never before.
- Russia did it because of the Nazis was never believed haha -
While true in the west after the start of the full scale invasion, it was believed in Crimea and the Donbas after 2014. It was one of the, if not the main functioning propaganda narrative during the take over of crimea. Put fear into people, then rescue them.
It was more than to be expected, that russia would use this narrative again. As it became obvious, that Ukraine didnt exactly wanted to be rescued, that narrative went out of the window, as the panel correctly states.
Societal impact: None in the west
- There were Biolabs
Horray, give your self a payment increase for figuring that one out as a russian propaganda narrative.
Societal impact: None in the west
- No one should listen to Mearsheimer, because Fiona “we all need to invent and tell narratives, so the russian narratives dont get traction” - quote - this video:
should be listened to instead, because she told us, she is creating those wonderful counternarratives, that are needed for a society in war?
Societal impact: Oh none, in the short term, it just drives the folks insane, that know that thats happening. Because you constantly tell people, if they dont believe in what Fiona says - then you are disseminating russian propaganda. Over time, this is a disaster in the making. Loss of trust, basically.
Oh, and why do I mention, that I have wasted one hour here?
Because all of that is low effort.
The thought of some idiots that claim, that their job is to detect Russian disinformation.
I mean this video released 8 days ago as part of the Woodrow Wilson Center debate track.
For this:
- Not one step eastward didnt exist
Mearsheimer was canceled by the Hoover institution in week two of the full scale war.
- There were Biolabs
Was a story NPR reported as false one month into the war.
- We did it because of the Nazis, which no one believed, haha
Was Part of Putins war speech on the day of the start of the war.
- Its a war with the west
Was identified as a russian myth by the european commission after one year of war.
By cepa.org in october of 2022
And “identified” by Sergey Karaganov in April of 2022 one month after the war started.
- Mearsheimer IS BEST WHEN HE IS CANCELED
Was layed out in week two after the war started. By the Hoover institution.
So what the fuck, if you pardon my french, did your entire field do for the past two years, and four months?
Tell the public, that counter narratives are so important, because russia is a revisionist, nay neocolonial [shit the global south isnt buying this], nay imperialistic power?
Welcome to the world of countering russian disinformation.
Where countering the narratives within the german society almost creates more problems than it solves.
Aber Hauptsache, man kanns heute studieren und hat dann einen Karrierepfad vor sich, sag ich immer. Gut, und wenn in dem Studienzweig zwei Jahre und vier Monate nichts weitergeht - während eines laufenden Kriegs, dann, ehm -- dann ehm, erzählen wir uns einfach die tollen Counternarrative die wir uns im Monat eins nach dem Krieg überlegt haben!
Pfiew! Gottseidank hat der Russe bis jetzt nicht reagiert, neuere hätte nämlich ein gesamtes Panel im Woodrow Wilson Center vor 8 Tagen nicht entdeckt…
Dieser Russe schon wieder, immer gefinkelt wie ein Fuchs, bleibt der einfach bei seinen Narrativen, die wir bereits vor zwei Jahren und vier Monaten entkräftet haben! Der weiss halt noch, dass Repetition so wichtig ist, der Russe! [Or your entire scientific field is shit.]
edit: At 1:06:50, so 3 minutes and 40 seconds before the end of the video, the main “here is the structure of it” proponent of the panel starts her “I’m worried that the world is very confusing, I’m worried about people thinking, is there a truth, is there any truth out there, can we believe anything that is out there that quesiton is very […] If you dont believe that there is any truth out there, your entire world view, just - it gives up.” spiel. Just imagine getting that story told by another american, whos never left their country, in their lives (might be true, might be not) and you conceptually get what I’m seeing here. Give us SIMPLE, old Voice of America lady! The audience screams silently.
