harlekin.me

Atlan­tic Coun­cil - Janu­a­ry 2025:

Is 2025 the year that Russia’s eco­no­my final­ly free­zes up under sanctions?

[…]

Three years later, the pic­tu­re loo­ks dif­fe­rent. The Rus­si­an eco­no­my is now begin­ning to see the full effects of inter­na­tio­nal sanc­tions. If the­se trends con­ti­nue, then the full impact of the­se finan­cial punish­ments, com­bi­ned with strong Ukrai­ni­an resis­tance to Rus­si­an for­ces, could at last put enough pres­su­re on the Krem­lin to end its war.

The first signs appeared at the end of 2024. The ruble has wea­ke­ned, with the Rus­si­an cur­ren­cy having lost more than half of its value against the US dol­lar and the euro, accord­ing to a recent ana­ly­sis by the Kyiv School of Eco­no­mics. Inter­na­tio­nal sanc­tions on Rus­si­an finan­cial insti­tu­ti­ons play­ed a cri­ti­cal part in this deva­lua­ti­on. In addi­ti­on, accord­ing to the Kyiv School of Eco­no­mics, Rus­si­an oil exports “drop­ped to $64.40 per bar­rel” at the end of 2024 (exports were initi­al­ly $70 per bar­rel). This sug­gests that the Rus­si­an government is genera­ting less reve­nue from oil sales.

Rising infla­ti­on is causing con­cerns in Rus­sia, too. In his annu­al tele­vi­sed question-and-answer ses­si­on last mon­th, Rus­si­an Pre­si­dent Vla­di­mir Putin said that infla­ti­on is a pro­blem and that the Rus­si­an eco­no­my is “over­hea­ting.” He ack­now­led­ged that the pri­ce of goods has incre­a­sed, but he attemp­ted to coun­ter this by say­ing that wages for Rus­si­an citi­zens have also incre­a­sed. He then con­clu­ded that the Rus­si­an Cen­tral Bank was working to adjust its bench­mark to address rising inflation.

Putin’s points on infla­ti­on were tel­ling. The Rus­si­an lea­der sel­dom dis­cus­ses pro­blems per­tai­ning to Rus­si­an society.

src: click

Car­ne­gy - May 2024:

Rus­sia Has the Resour­ces for a Long War in Ukraine

Vla­di­mir Putin has rea­son to be con­fi­dent that Rus­sia can main­tain cur­rent mili­ta­ry spen­ding levels for a rela­tively long time. This is bad news for Ukrai­ne, its Wes­tern part­ners and neigh­bors, and over­all glo­bal security.

[…]

src: click

edit: Oh, and btw. I had to cor­rect the main figu­re in this blog­post by a fac­tor of 5x. Plea­se reread:

Hey, es hat sich ein Voll­trot­tel gefunden!

Veröffentlicht by me am Mittwoch, 15. Januar 2025 unter Allgemein, Media.