The official results show the Georgian Dream’s share slightly lower compared to the Gorbi exit polls commissioned by pro-government Imedi TV, while the official results are in dramatic contrast to the exit polls conducted by HarrisX (for pro-opposition Mtavari Arkhi) Edison Research (for opposition-leaning Formula-TV), with the latter being known traditionally as most accurate in election-day polling. Both HarrisX and Edison Research had projected the opposition as winners.
src: click
Difference (Georgian Dream results) Edison polling (40.9%) to official 2024 election result (53.93%) = 13,03% points
Voter turnout 58.94%
Georgian population: 3.8 million
3.8 million -23% (roundabout, see click) to get eligible voters is 2.93
2.93 million - (100-58,94=41,06)% = 1,73 million to account for voter turnout.
13,03% of 1,73 million = 225.419 of alleged (by opposition parties) wrongly allocated votes.
Georgian CEC of course now declared the Marneuli district results invalid because of the aformentioned video evidence of ballot stuffing.
That district has a population of 20.211 minus 23% for eligible voters minus 41,06% to account for voter turnout (20211-23%)-41,06% = 9172 voters.
Georgian Dream Vote percentage in Marneuli: 79,62%
79,62% of 9172 = 7303
So now we have 7303 votes of an alleged 225.419 fraudulently cast under reevaluation!
Great, so whats next?
My Vote pointed to “mass” incidents of voters being given two or more ballots instead of one during the first half of the day, and said there were also cases where the ruling party’s field was already marked on the ballot. The mission said it also “became clear” that numerous reports of confiscating or “renting” voters’ ID cards and collecting their personal information during the campaign were used to carry out the same rigging scheme.
[…]
According to My Vote, as of 10-11 p.m., the mission’s observers identified 347 violations of the marking process, 89 reports of violations of the secrecy of the vote, 341 cases of unauthorized persons in the polling station, and 96 cases of physical violence, threats, and confrontations, as well as 163 cases of obstruction of My Vote observers.
The violations were “systematic” in some areas, including in Marneuli, Bolnisi, Kareli, Gori, Kaspi, Khashuri, Senaki, Gardabani, Gurjaani, Signaghi, Dedoplistskaro, Kobuleti, Sagarejo, Batumi, Zugdidi, Telavi, Chkhorotsku, Akhaltsikhe, Mtskheta, Akhalkalaki, Rustavi, Gldani (Tbilisi), Isani (Tbilisi), Samgori (Tbilisi), and Kharagauli districts.
src: click
Total population of the alleged districts:
20211+8967+6654+48143+13423+26135+21596+10753+8024+
1485+5940+16546+10871+172100+42998+19629+3141+17903+
7940+8295+130100+177500+125610+177844+1965 ==
(1.083.773-23%)-41,06% = 491857 actual people voting. (Including Marneuli.)
Georgian dreams alleged vote percentage = 53.93%
53.93% of 491857 == 265258 potentially affected voting opportunities.
So thats 265.258 potentially affected voting opportunities out of an alleged 225.419 alleged fraudulent votes. (The 13,03% difference of Georgian Dreams results in exit polls compared to official results.)
Meaning 8.5 out of 10 of those 265.258 MUST have voted at least twice, for the result to be explained by double voting.
For those (225.419 alleged fraudulent votes) the NGO My Vote offers up
According to My Vote, as of 10-11 p.m., the mission’s observers identified 347 violations of the marking process, 89 reports of violations of the secrecy of the vote, 341 cases of unauthorized persons in the polling station, and 96 cases of physical violence, threats, and confrontations, as well as 163 cases of obstruction of My Vote observers.
src: click
347 cases of violations in the marking process, and 89 violations of the secrecy of the vote, as well as 96 cases of potential threats.
347+89+96 = 532
Wolfram Alpha, what percentage is 532 out of 225419?
Answer: 0,236%
Which we all learned in the case of the US elections by now is not statistically significant. To prove that the violations were “systematic”.
Georgia, oh my Georgia.
So aside from this making no sense statistically, any other pleasant surprises?
Well…
Speaker Papuashvili Claims Opposition, CSOs Spread “Election-Related Disinformation”
Georgian Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili defended the ruling Georgian Dream party’s highly controversial nearly 54 percent victory in the October 26 elections, denying allegations of fraud by opposition and observers. At the October 28 briefing, he accused opposition forces and civil society organizations of trying to stir unrest in the country through disinformation campaigns. “They don’t want to accept people’s will,” he said.
src: click
contrasting this:
.@edisonresearch exit poll (blue) vs the CEC official results (orange) over the years. Another mathematical proof of blatant rigging. pic.twitter.com/YLmVcpKzXA
— Giorgi Kandelaki (@kandelakigiorgi) October 27, 2024
(That Delta shows the 13,03% points difference in 2024.)
Sigh…
So 2 minute summery?
- Double voting in the districts where irregularities were documented, cant explain the discrepancy in alleged votes.
- The documented ballot stuffing (one or two cases documented) cant explain the discrepancy in alleged votes.
- The documented alleged instances of voting irregularities are not statistically significant to account for an alleged vote discrepancy of 225419 votes
Which leaves electronic voting manipulation as the most likely means remaining to account for a 225419 votes discrepancy (13,03% points) between the usually most reliable exit poll polling agency and the official election result figures.
