https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/inflection-points/dispatch-from-ukraine-the-path-to-a-durable-peace-is-emerging/
War, war and, oh yes, war.
Ukrainians know that a complete and just victory in this war is impossible for the moment.
[…]
That leaves three more realistic possibilities. The least desirable is an extended war of attrition, which would favor Russia given its larger population, military, and manufacturing base. Nearly as bad is what Ukrainian officials call a “fake peace,” in which Russia stops the fighting for a time but under conditions that fail to secure Ukraine or prevent a future attack. The best outcome among plausible scenarios is a fair and durable peace with some Ukrainian territory lost for now but [retain everything in 10 years!] European military boots on the ground, an American security backstop, and an accelerated path to EU membership for Ukraine. [Are we still talking about ending the war, or Ukraines wedding trip plans?]
There’s a sense in Ukraine that the third scenario is more likely today than it was at the beginning of this year, when the Trump administration appeared ambivalent about Ukraine’s fate and European inattention endangered the country’s future. For now, US President Donald Trump has begun supporting Ukraine more. And Europe has experienced what Atlantic Council nonresident senior fellow Oksana Nechyporenko describes to me as an “awakening” about its own security perils, which “has brought Ukraine a second wind” of military, political, and financial support, including additional sanctions on Russia.
src: click
with Selenskyj - the peace president.
Also - the “best scenario” requires the longest stretch of war ahead.
Depending on if Crimea can be “lost” for 99 years. Seleskyj says never.
Depending on if the Donbas can be “lost” for 50 years. Selenskyj says never.
So now briliant Selenskyj plan comes into play. Have west bankrupt russian economy, so russia has to accept “fair” goal of give everything back in ten years.
Ten years which Selenskyj needs to reprogram crimean people, that for some reason now have russian passports. This he cant solve in less than ten years.
The rest in Selenskyj plan is solved by joint US and EU military and economic intervention. As always, just much, much more.
You know the normal way wars are won. Suck so long on the hegemons dick until, …
So now we fight for longer to potentially reduce that 50 year period to 10. And get Crimea back.
Or have russia reach its minimal war goals, say FUCK YOU to the collective west and go for scenario two.
Which currently does seem like the likeliest mid term scenario.
Also - less war that way.
To which the entire west responds - yes, but more potential for future war!
So west needs “just peace” - which is of course achieved by threatening AND bankrupting russia - oh and stealing all of its western banked money:
Though Trump didn’t use the term “sanctions,” he told his Ukrainian counterparts that he favored punitive tariffs and restrictive economic measures against Putin to push him to more rapidly and willingly negotiate peace. These measures include actions against Russia’s big energy companies and, together with Europe, against countries such as India and China, which are purchasing Russian oil and thus supporting the Russian economy.
Yeah. Yeah, right. Ukrainian US Lobby working hard. You can do it!
Quick, we need more technobabble so people believe in glorious concept of long war, that is also fast!
No choice but to press on—and fast
One of the strongest impressions I got on the ground in Ukraine is that the war is now characterized more by a technology race than a battle for territory, though one informs the other. The advanced drone technology that both sides are employing is increasing the ever-expanding width of the “kill zone” on the front lines—the area within which soldiers can’t survive and tanks can’t travel without being destroyed—to twenty kilometers or more.
“We’re experiencing another revolution in military affairs,” Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former minister of defense and a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, tells me. “Victory will go to the side that comes up with solutions faster. The goal of our technology ecosystem is to evolve faster than the enemy,” and hence bring about Russia’s “functional defeat through strategic neutralization of Russian capabilities.” In short, he says, the war primarily has become one more against time than for territory.
And most people in my country still believe Selenskyj is the peace president.
Because of great media descriptor “just peace”.
