Statistical uptick of russians “about to attack”, and russian airplanes “about to fire” very likely in the upcoming days…

21. Juni 2024

Ukrai­ne may fire US-provided mis­si­les into Rus­sia whe­re­ver it is com­ing under attack, Pen­ta­gon says

src: click (ABC)

This is not about geo­gra­phy. It’s about com­mon sen­se,” said spo­kes­man Army Maj. Char­lie Dietz. “If Rus­sia is attacking or about to attack from its ter­ri­to­ry into Ukrai­ne, it only makes sen­se to allow Ukrai­ne to hit back [on the attacking par­ty that was only “about to attack them” so - I think we call that first stri­ke­ab­le, right?] against the for­ces that are hit­ting it from across the border.”

Addi­tio­nal­ly, they can use air defen­se sys­tems sup­plied by the United Sta­tes to take Rus­si­an pla­nes out of the sky, even if tho­se Rus­si­an pla­nes are in Rus­si­an air­space, if they’re about to fire into Ukrai­ni­an air­space,” Dietz said in a statement.

I’m tel­ling you, that rus­si­an was about to fire! Good thing I saw him, befo­re he did!

So - ukrai­ni­an attacks on rus­sia are now limi­ted by “wait a minu­te, do you think we might need tho­se rockets to attack sup­ply rou­tes in Crimea”?

Ah, good were the days - when a Car­lo Masa­la would tell ger­man audi­en­ces, that the batt­le over Lyman was “very” important, becau­se from the­re - Ukrai­nes liter­al­ly could reach all train hubs, they alrea­dy could attack befo­re, becau­se they alrea­dy were wit­hin ran­ge before…

Now new in the port­fo­lio of “This by no means is sala­mi sli­ce tac­tics, this is a “Lear­ning Cur­ve”” regar­ding what Ger­ma­ny needs to green­light for the Ukrai­ni­ans to use at any given moment: They can now use ever­ything, to fire at anything - if they think - it was about to fire at Ukraine.

Eska­la­ti­ons­spi­ra­le? I wo -- “Lern­kur­ve”, hat uns Clau­dia Major von der Stif­tung Wis­sen­schaft und Poli­tik doch bei­gebracht!

edit: Wait -- lets not for­get the “This is not about geo­gra­phy. It’s about com­mon sen­se,…” part! So -- what was the pro­vo­ca­ti­on that lead to the US esca­la­ting in that fashion? You know, from only allowing mis­si­les to attack rus­si­an for­ces in rus­sia, near Char­kiev? Oh, right… The­re was none. The esca­la­ti­on real­ly was just “about com­mon sen­se” and did not need any “geo­gra­phic restric­tions” becau­se they were soooo two weeks ago.

edit: Es gibt aber auch wie­der gute Nach­rich­ten. Der Stan­dard wider­spricht gera­de Forbes…

Don’t Fear Russia’s 3.3-Ton Glide-Bomb. It’s Mas­si­ve Over­kill When A 1.1-Ton Glide-Bomb Will Kill You Just Fine. (For­bes)

Russ­land setz­te neue ton­nen­schwe­re Bom­be im Krieg ein (Der Standard)

Auch des­we­gen hat Kiew neben einer ver­stärk­ten Flug­ab­wehr auch immer wie­der gefor­dert, mit west­li­chen Waf­fen auch mili­tä­ri­sche Zie­le über rus­si­schem Gebiet angrei­fen zu können.

Aso - wegen der Bom­be die eh kei­nen Unter­schied macht.

Klar, war­um bin ich nicht drauf gekommen…

But as a glide-bomb, the FAB-3000 also would be unwie­l­dy and likely lacking in ran­ge [30km]. Don’t worry about the 3.3-ton FAB-3000. Ins­tead, worry about the Rus­si­an glide-bombs that aren’t imp­rac­ti­cal for ever­y­day use: the FAB-500, FAB-1000 and FAB-1500.

src: click

Food security now also includes metals

19. Juni 2024

Gre­at news from good friends at Euro­pean Prav­da! They actual­ly mana­ged to influ­ence Switz­er­land to rephra­se their final Bür­gen­stock com­mu­ni­quee in 5 vital points:

Ukrai­ne Peace Sum­mit turns hard on Rus­sia. How lea­ders amen­ded the final decisi­on under criticism

THURSDAY, 13 JUNE 2024 — SERGIY SYDORENKO, EUROPEAN PRAVDA

Har­sh cri­ti­cism of the agreed draft reso­lu­ti­on of the Peace Sum­mit, voi­ced both in Ukrai­ne and by Ukraine’s allies, for­ced the orga­nisers to make con­ces­si­ons. Switz­er­land, which is orga­ni­sing the Glo­bal Peace Sum­mit, sent a radi­cal­ly revi­sed docu­ment to all capi­tals of the par­ti­ci­pa­ting coun­tries, cor­rec­ting key issu­es high­ligh­ted by Euro­pean Pravda.

The updated draft is ent­i­re­ly accep­ta­ble for Ukrai­ne. It expli­ci­tly calls the war “Rus­si­an aggres­si­on.” Loo­p­ho­les that could have paved the way for ter­ri­to­ri­al con­ces­si­ons from Ukrai­ne were remo­ved from the text. Several sta­tes that had plan­ned to attend the Peace Sum­mit in Switz­er­land have deci­ded not to go the­re after the draft decisi­on was chan­ged in favour of Ukraine.

Euro­pean Prav­da has lear­ned the details of the nego­tia­ti­ons and the decisi­on that will be adop­ted this weekend.

Behind the sce­nes of the Peace Summit
The time­li­ne of the­se events is cru­cial: it shows how urgent the chan­ges that occur­red over the past week were.

The idea to hold the Peace Sum­mit in Switz­er­land was agreed upon at the begin­ning of the year. On 10 April, Switz­er­land announ­ced the agreed date and loca­ti­on for the sum­mit. Lea­ders of about 160 coun­tries, four inter­na­tio­nal orga­ni­sa­ti­ons (UN, EU, Coun­cil of Euro­pe, OSCE), the Pope and the Ecu­me­ni­cal Patri­arch were invi­ted to the Bür­gen­stock Alpi­ne Spa. It was pre­de­ter­mi­ned that Rus­sia would not be pre­sent at the first Peace Sum­mit, which Ukrai­ne deman­ded in the first place.

Both Kyiv and Bern aimed to adopt a decisi­on fol­lowing the sum­mit. Howe­ver, the wor­d­ing nee­ded to be agreed upon by all participants.

Pre­pa­ra­ti­on for this docu­ment star­ted more than two mon­ths ago. Euro­pean Prav­da has the April draft of the joint com­mu­ni­qué, whe­re the sum­mit dates were still ten­ta­ti­ve. That docu­ment was pre­pa­red in Kyiv and was ent­i­re­ly accep­ta­ble for Ukrai­ne, adhe­ring to the important red lines for Ukrai­ni­an society.

Howe­ver, Switz­er­land per­sua­ded Ukrai­ne to sof­ten it as much as pos­si­ble, con­si­de­ring the wis­hes of all par­ti­ci­pants. On 28 May, a com­pro­mi­se ver­si­on was sent from Bern to all capi­tals, and initi­al­ly, Kyiv had to agree to it.

Ever­ything chan­ged when the public lear­ned that this draft was dan­ge­rous for Ukraine.

The dis­cus­sion began with an arti­cle by Euro­pean Prav­da, publis­hed on 5 June. The next day, on 6 June, Kyiv was for­ced to make public state­ments asser­ting that “Ukrai­ne will not retre­at from the Peace For­mu­la.” This fue­led dis­cus­sions in the capi­tals of Ukraine’s allies, which were also not thril­led with the wor­d­ing of the Swiss docu­ment. At least a few of them con­ta­c­ted Bern with a pro­po­sal to revi­se the joint statement.

On 9 June, Switz­er­land had sent a com­ple­te­ly new draft to all coun­tries. Amen­ding the com­mu­ni­qué took mere days, not mon­ths as before.

What has changed
The summit’s decisi­on remains unch­an­ged in for­mat and struc­tu­re. This is a two-page docu­ment dedi­ca­ted to three issu­es: nuclear secu­ri­ty, food secu­ri­ty and the pri­so­ners of war. Key issu­es that lay out­side the­se points have been addres­sed though.

Rus­si­an Aggression
– Old wor­d­ing: The May draft decisi­on of the Peace Sum­mit did not men­ti­on the word “aggres­si­on,” mea­ning the inter­na­tio­nal crime whe­re Rus­sia is the per­pe­tra­tor and Ukrai­ne the victim.

– New wor­d­ing: This has been amen­ded. The joint com­mu­ni­qué now refers to “the aggres­si­on of the Rus­si­an Fede­ra­ti­on against Ukraine”.

Ter­ri­to­ri­al Inte­gri­ty and the UN Charter
– Old wor­d­ing: the pre­vious sum­mit decisi­on ver­si­on crea­ted a legal win­dow to inclu­de Ukrai­ne aban­do­ning part of its ter­ri­to­ry in the con­di­ti­ons of “sus­tainab­le peace with Rus­sia”, if necessary.

– New wor­d­ing: the new draft decisi­on clear­ly sta­tes that the basis for sus­tainab­le peace will be only “a solu­ti­on based on the princip­le of respect for the ter­ri­to­ri­al inte­gri­ty and sov­er­eig­n­ty of all sta­tes”. [Cri­mea back to Ukrai­ne, and no neu­tra­li­ty that inclu­des “limi­ta­ti­on on mili­ta­ry forces”]

Alter­na­ti­ve Peace Formulas
– Old wor­d­ing: the pre­vious draft blur­red the mea­ning of the Peace For­mu­la and ope­ned up space for inter­na­tio­nal dis­cus­sion of all alter­na­ti­ve visi­ons of peace, such as the Chinese-Brazilian one, which envi­sa­ges a halt to the streng­t­he­ning of Ukraine’s Armed For­ces and a ces­sa­ti­on of hostilities.

– New wor­d­ing: the new wor­d­ing sta­tes that only peace pro­po­sals that com­ply with inter­na­tio­nal law (i.e. an uncon­di­tio­nal return of the 1991 bor­ders, unless revi­sed by Ukrai­ne its­elf) and the UN Char­ter (in par­ti­cu­lar, Ukraine’s uncon­di­tio­nal [no for­ce limi­ta­ti­on] right to con­ti­nue repel­ling Rus­si­an aggres­si­on and libe­ra­ting the occu­p­ied ter­ri­to­ries) will be taken into account.

Invol­ve­ment of Russia
– Old wor­d­ing: the ear­lier ver­si­on tur­ned Rus­sia from an aggres­sor into a par­ti­ci­pant in peace talks, requi­ring only vague “confidence-building mea­su­res” on nuclear and food security.

– New wor­d­ing: this sec­tion has been rewrit­ten from scratch. The Swiss agreed not to men­ti­on Rus­sia at all in the pro­vi­si­on on peace talks, ins­tead refer­ring to “all par­ties”. The­re is no lon­ger a wea­ke­ned requi­re­ment for “confidence-building mea­su­res”, but ins­tead “spe­ci­fic actions” are requi­red. And most import­ant­ly, the refe­ren­ces to a “second peace sum­mit” that hin­ted at a com­mit­ment to invi­te Rus­sia to par­ti­ci­pa­te have been removed.

Food Secu­ri­ty
– New addi­ti­on: The updated docu­ment inclu­des the state­ment that “attacks on mer­chant ships in ports and along the ent­i­re rou­te, as well as against civi­li­an ports and civi­li­an port infra­st­ruc­tu­re, are unac­cep­ta­ble”. This falls under the glo­bal food secu­ri­ty sec­tion but app­lies to all civi­li­an ves­sels, inclu­ding con­tai­ner ships or tho­se expor­ting Ukrai­ni­an metals. Con­ti­nued attacks would block Russia’s par­ti­ci­pa­ti­on in peace initiatives.

The­se signi­fi­cant chan­ges ensu­re that the new draft of the sum­mit decisi­on is more accep­ta­ble to Ukrai­ne, rein­for­cing its ter­ri­to­ri­al inte­gri­ty, addres­sing Rus­si­an aggres­si­on accu­rate­ly and main­tai­ning strin­gent con­di­ti­ons on peace nego­tia­ti­ons invol­ving Russia.

The docu­ment is accep­ta­ble for Ukraine
The Joint Com­mu­ni­qué on a Peace Frame­work in its new ver­si­on aligns with Ukraine’s inte­rests. Alt­hough the­re are still minor remarks, the main dan­gers have been addres­sed. Cur­r­ent­ly, the draft is not yet final: the­re is still a pos­si­bi­li­ty of point chan­ges on 13-14 June. Howe­ver, Euro­pean Pravda’s sources are incli­ned to belie­ve that the updated con­tent of the decisi­on will remain.

Rea­listic expec­ta­ti­ons are necessa­ry. This sum­mit will not lead to a bre­akthrough or end the war. Ukrai­ne is merely taking one of the first steps on a long path. Howe­ver, it is cru­cial that this step is in the right direc­tion and does not crea­te new problems.

The hig­her ambi­ti­on of the docu­ment came at a cost:

several coun­tries have decli­ned to par­ti­ci­pa­te in the sum­mit. As of 5 June, Switz­er­land offi­cial­ly announ­ced that it had “recei­ved more than 80 con­fir­ma­ti­ons of atten­dance at the level of heads of sta­tes and governments”, and the total num­ber of con­fir­med atten­de­es, as repor­ted by offi­cials, excee­ded 100. Howe­ver, in the fol­lowing days, this phra­se had to be remo­ved from the event’s web­site, and now it reads that “around 90 sta­tes have con­fir­med their par­ti­ci­pa­ti­on in the Sum­mit on Peace in Ukrai­ne, most of them at head of sta­te or government level”.

Sources of Euro­pean Prav­da repor­ted that, in rea­li­ty, about 15 coun­tries have “pau­sed” their atten­dance. In addi­ti­on, the num­ber of tho­se who have signal­led a demo­ti­on from the pre­si­den­ti­al or prime minis­te­ri­al level to the level of minis­ters or even their depu­ties is in the dozens.

Alt­hough it is obvious that due to the recent chan­ges, the sum­mit will be atten­ded by fewer sta­tes than initi­al­ly anti­ci­pa­ted by Ban­ko­va Street [whe­re the Ukrai­ni­an President’s Office is loca­ted] eight days ago, it is bet­ter to have a sum­mit of like-minded peop­le than to make con­ces­si­ons on issu­es that are cri­ti­cal for the state.

Ser­giy Sydorenko

Euro­pean Prav­da, Editor

src: click

Final­ly!

Bildschirmfoto 2024 06 19 um 07 54 42
src: click

Da kann der Krieg ja end­lich weitergehen.

edit: Fun­ding for good friends at Euro­pean Prav­da pro­vi­ded by:

Inter­na­tio­nal donors sup­port the pro­ject finan­cial­ly, on the pro­vi­so that they do not inter­fe­re in edi­to­ri­al poli­cy. Finan­cial sup­port was pro­vi­ded by the Euro­pean Endow­ment for Demo­cra­cy, Inter­na­tio­nal Renais­sance Foun­da­ti­on, Coun­cil of Euro­pe, and NATO Public Diplo­ma­cy Divi­si­on (PDD).

Sin­ce June 2016, Euro­pean Prav­da has been co-financed by the Euro­pean Uni­on. Par­ti­al co-financing is pro­vi­ded from the NATO PDD and from adver­ti­sing reve­nues. From 2018, the main co-donor of the pro­ject is the Natio­nal Endow­ment for Demo­cra­cy (NED), fun­ded from the US Con­gress budget.[3]

Accord­ing to the edi­tor, Ser­hii Sido­ren­ko, “EP” is a non-profit orga­niz­a­ti­on, as of Febru­a­ry 2021.[8]

src: click

Great success!

18. Juni 2024

Eine Absa­ge aus Pro­test, zwei Rück­zie­her und ein ver­schwun­de­ner Prinz: Auf dem Bür­gen­stock rum­pel­te es hin­ter den Kulissen

src: click (NZZ)

Zeit für Medienintervention!

DIE ANDEREN WAREN SCHULD! SIE SIND DIE BÖSEN! DIE ANDEREN SIND DIE BÖSEN!

Am Ukraine-Gipfel zer­schell­ten diplo­ma­ti­sche Hoff­nun­gen an den geo­po­li­ti­schen Rea­li­tä­ten. Was beweg­te wich­ti­ge Schwel­len­län­der, Sand ins Getrie­be des Frie­dens­pro­zes­ses zu streuen?

Zum Abschluss des Gip­fel­tref­fens auf dem Bür­gen­stock bemüh­ten sich die Schwei­zer Gast­ge­ber, das Bild eines rund­um geglück­ten Gross­an­las­ses zu zeich­nen. Doch bei einem genaue­ren Blick zeigt die­ses Bild kla­re Ris­se. Berns Hoff­nung auf eine brei­te Ein­heits­front für den Frie­den zer­schell­te an den geo­po­li­ti­schen Rea­li­tä­ten. Sym­pto­me dafür gab es auf dem Bür­gen­stock und in den Tagen davor zuhauf: Ein Staats­prä­si­dent sag­te unter wüten­dem Pro­test sei­ne Teil­nah­me kurz­fris­tig ab, zwei Län­der des­avou­ier­ten die Schweiz mit ihrem Nein zur Schluss­erklä­rung, nach­dem die Gast­ge­ber sie bereits zum zustim­men­den Lager gezählt hatten.

Zuletzt ver­wei­ger­ten ins­ge­samt 15 von 93 teil­neh­men­den Staa­ten ihre Unter­schrift unter die Bürgenstock-Deklaration. Das ist ein unüb­lich hoher Anteil. Denn bei sol­chen Gip­fel­tref­fen wird nor­ma­ler­wei­se im Vor­aus ein Kon­sens gesucht, oder man einigt sich not­falls in letz­ter Minu­te auf eine ver­wäs­ser­te Variante.

Also gre­at suc­cess! Accord­ing, to the aus­tri­an News­pa­per “Der Stan­dard” - die NZZ titelt der­weil bereits 

Mos­kaus sieht sich bestä­tigt - Kiew zieht zwie­späl­ti­ge Bilanz”

Gre­at suc­cess, much hope, very! For next ses­si­on of Selen­skyj peace for­mu­la sum­mit! Why in Sau­di Ara­bia - AGAIN (Copen­ha­gen, Jed­dah (KSA), Mal­ta and Davos)? Becau­se coun­try very neu­tral, and gre­at democracy!

Much!

Nato is peace!

18. Juni 2024

Point 1 - Accord­ing to Stol­ten­berg “The­re is real­ly no dif­fe­rence bet­ween the rus­si­an war in Ukrai­ne and the upco­m­ing attack of Chi­na on Tai­wan” - even though one didnt hap­pen yet.

Point 2 - Mode­ra­tor: How is the Arc­tic dif­fe­rent in terms of Nato is safe­guar­ding peace? “Its real­ly not dif­fe­rent. The Arc­tic is also a buch of land and water and ice, but less ice now, and more sea, so the Arc­tic also very important in Natos mis­si­on to safe­guard peace”!

Point 3 - Com­pa­re and con­trast with a goog­le search for “nato attacks without un mandate”.

Com­pa­re and con­trast with a goog­le search for “nato excee­ded un mandate”.

Or if you can sto­mach it - with this:

Point 4 - “Chi­na wants to join the Arc­tic cir­cle alli­an­ce, someo­ne told me - they also want to be part of this, but they arent even an Arc­tic country!”

Mean­while - North Atlan­tic Trea­ty Orga­ni­sa­ti­on opens “head­qua­ters” in Japan, …

NATO to set up liai­son office in Tokyo, beef up regio­nal ties (Reu­ters)

Oh, sor­ry - the most important point:

Point 5: Ukrai­ne has to join Nato - other­wi­se we can not be sure Rus­sia wont attack Ukrai­ne again!

For that to hap­pen, Ukrai­ne has to be clo­se­ly brought up to Nato stan­dards, so that “WHEN THE TIME IS RIGHT” in a Moment of weak­ness for rus­sia, when Tur­key can be con­vin­ced as well, the actu­al joi­ning pro­cess can hap­pen without the nor­mal path of action, in a quick­track fashion, wit­hin a few weeks. “This is the only way to just and per­ma­nent peace.”

SO NOT MUCH CHANGED THEN, SINCE THE BEFORE THE WAR PERIOD, I RECON?

Die­se Gesell­schaft ist das abso­lut gro­tesk und abar­tigst Allerletzte.

Point 6:

Nato has been so suc­cess­ful, becau­se its mis­si­on state­ment was so clear, to pro­tect peace.” (Jens Stoltenberg)

but also

I’m opti­mistic, Nato is so suc­cess­ful, becau­se we have pro­ven so agi­le and adap­ta­ble over time.” (Jens Stol­ten­berg, same Press conference)

Gut, Pro­pa­gan­da hat wie­der nie­mand ent­deckt, was will man machen…

Which propaganda?

16. Juni 2024

I dont see any propaganda.

Thats spe­ci­fi­cal­ly what Der Stan­dard will bring you tomorrow.

Gre­at new easy to under­stand infor­ma­ti­on from Anna who works in com­mu­ni­ca­ti­ons, and her pals.

They so great­full, that peop­le dont fall for rus­si­an pro­pa­gan­da, and find it real­ly hope­full, that peop­le sel­fi­den­ti­fy as sibe­ri­ans and non russians.

Sum­mit gre­at suc­cess! Over some­thing some­thing coun­tries signed clo­sing state­ment. Bra­sil, India, South Afri­ca, Colum­bia, Mexi­co, Indo­ne­sia, Thai­land, Arme­nia and Libya did not - but gre­at success!

Pro­pa­gan­da hat aber natür­lich wie­der nie­mand entdeckt.

Der Stan­dard berich­tet gera­de eben wie­der pflicht­ge­mäß wie geil erst der nächs­te Selen­skyj For­mel Frie­dens­gip­fel wer­den wird…

Also gre­at news from old pal Gen. Ben Hod­ges, tal­king to polish TVP yesterday!

Rus­sia almost deple­ted, we make Ukrai­ne win now!

Ups, bad News­pa­per NZZ reports some­thing much like what rus­si­ans want you to think, dont know why - bad peop­le at NZZ pro­bab­ly - bet­ter only lis­ten to good peop­le like Anna from Ukraine!

Ein Erfolg für die Schweiz, eine zwie­späl­ti­ge Ange­le­gen­heit für die Ukrai­ne: Das erhoff­te Signal bleibt aus

Das Gip­fel­tref­fen auf dem Bür­gen­stock hat den Frie­den nicht vor­an­ge­bracht. Die Ver­an­stal­ter und Teil­neh­mer ver­su­chen das schön­zu­re­den, aber wich­ti­ger wäre etwas Realismus.

src: click

Gen. Ben Hod­ges also very good Ana­lyst of cour­se. Con­stant­ly wrong for two and a half years now - but surely his moment will come.

edit: Man­gott:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seZSUfVwUTk

edit2: Just lost 2.2 Bil­li­on peop­le. Any idea whe­re to find them?

Bildschirmfoto 2024 06 17 um 08 26 53

For the peace the world wants! Well, the repre­sen­ta­ti­ves of the remai­ning 1.3 bil­li­on people.

Bür­gen­stock - whe­re a sixth of the worlds popu­la­ti­ons deci­des how the worlds wars will end tomor­row, still based on Selen­skys 10 Point Peace formula.

Oh, and if you still havent caught on, that points that in the UN char­ter are “shall” regu­la­ti­ons (the attacking par­ty shall) in the Selen­skyj Glo­bal Peace Gre­at Sum­mit pro­cess frame­work, that rus­sia MUST abi­de by, for star­ting of gre­at peace con­fe­rence, which next time cer­tain­ly will be peace con­fe­rence, we pro­mi­se to invi­te rus­sia, but only if rus­sia agrees to our frame­work for peace -- so points that in the UN char­ta are “shall” regu­la­ti­ons, in the Bür­gen­stock end com­mu­ni­que beco­me “must” regu­la­ti­ons, well -- then I hope you can also lis­ten to the aus­tri­an chan­cellor tel­ling you “tho­se coun­tries just didnt like the phra­sing of the final decla­ra­ti­on”.

Just pre­tend, that you dont know any of that - and the world is still behind Selen­skyj - becau­se the ent­i­re­ty of the aus­tri­an media sphe­re does.

Die­se Gesell­schaft ist das abso­lut gro­tesk und abar­tigst Allerletzte.