As with West Germany, which joined NATO in 1955, NATO’s defense guarantee would apply only to that part of Ukrainian territory under control of the Ukrainian government. The United States should reject Russia’s demand for forced neutrality and de facto disarmament for Ukraine.
Same status for annexed territories possible as with crimea.
As a NATO member, Ukraine would commit to restore its territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders through peaceful and diplomatic means. Before its accession, allies would take additional steps to integrate Ukraine into the Alliance, in particular by offering Ukraine a permanent seat at the North Atlantic Council and a Ukrainian general a seat at the Military Committee.
The rest is all fuck the EU, and US will do the bare minumum.
The United States and its allies need a new policy of containment of Russia. This also includes maintaining hold on the immobilized Russian sovereign assets and restrictions on technology, and caution in lifting sanctions. There should be no return to reliance on Russian energy or other resources. Allies should be prepared to intensify economic pressure and make Russia pay the price should it violate ceasefire terms.
This leaves it open to Ukraine to try to attain advantages militarily (oh but its not us, its the local rebel groups, with their hate towards the russian invaders…) until it has gained full Nato membership, at which point all Nato countries would commit to restore its territorial integrity “through peaceful means”.
So its partisan warfare until the point where europe permanently is willing to fuck itself as part of its permanent political NATO commitment to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine. A THINGWHICHISNOTMILITARILYATTAINABLEFORTHEFORSEEABLEFUTURE. (30 years, then I dont care anymore.)
Something that only the University of Michigan could come up with.… 8006kms away.
edit: No, wait, wait - this gets better! Hey Japan, and the Philippines, can I interest you in a NATO membership? We are the transatlantic union, that politically fights for the full territorial integrity of Ukraine! Hey, where are you running? No, no - wait, Ukraine is not a full member yet, they can still attack russia trough covert means and, … Helloo!? Stop! Stop!
Russland ist durch Assad-Sturz “zum Bittsteller geworden” - Jäger zu neuer Situation in Nahost | ntv
Ups. Reality.
Oder wie die Durchschnittsbevölkerung das sehen würde:
Ich wünschte wir hätten mehr Experten wie Prof. Jäger. Immer freundlich, sachlich, mit sachkundigen Analysen und niemals polemisch. Klasse!
(Youtube Kommentar)
Hintergrund: Das ist Teil des Narratives, dass Russland zu Verhandlungen gezwungen werden müsse.
Was auch stimmt, wenn es nach US Demands in 20 Jahren die Krim wieder an Kiew zurückgeben müsste. Dem fairem Friedensplan von Selenskyj sei Dank.
Und dann erst das Potential als Verhandlungsmasse! Russland! Wenn du jetzt nicht zum Waffenstillstand bereit bist, dann bekommst du Syrien nicht wieder! Ehmn, aja, das bekommst du so und so nicht wieder ehm… Aber wenn du den Krieg jetzt nicht binnen 23 Jahren einstellst, dann! Jahaaa!
edit: Ah, they might be loosing more of a foothold than previously thought…
So here is your short track on what russian disinformation is according to a Wilson Center panel of experts:
- Not one step eastward didnt exist
- There were no Biolabs
- We did it because of the Nazis, which no one believed, haha
- Its a war with the west
- Mearsheimer ISBESTWHENHEISCANCELED
Thats the entire knowledge of the US field of disinformation studies in four and a half bullet points.
And here is what I see when I’m watching that video.
- Just believe in yourself, and the country and us being good, as a prerequisite to “counter disinformation” check
- Also dont mention that Mearsheimer picked that up, not because of russian propaganda, but because of international relations theory, namely the realist school of international relations theory -- the one he is the main proponent of currently, and for that was deplatformed on March 6th 2022, two weeks after the war started, by an enitre newly founded “panel interview series” at the Hoover Institution for holding that opinion (three prong strategy play, see: The New Yorker article)
Societal impact of that - devastating
Why? Because in germany that was a large minorities shortcut on what was happening in foreign politics over the better part of 15 years. Namely that Merkel and her french counterpart prevented Nato enlargement. Because they - and Merkel stated as such, thought that it would prevent a military confrontation. (The last time, 11 days ago: click)
Why? Because the inverse - that Ukraine just should be able to enter NATO, just because they really want to and have written that into their constitution - just so obviously is not the case.
Why? Because from a narratives perspective, this is the closest narrative expression to “russia identified its black sea harbors (40% of russian exports, power projection into the mediteranian, black sea regions and africa) as a strategic asset, and at least partly went to war because of those, also because they were under high risk of loosing all of that in 20 years time, when their power through military means concept would not work as well anymore because of demographic reasons.” A stance which Fiona Hills source at the Brookings institution:
Have held over time to explain what they have witnessed, and as a narrative, had impacted their decision process at the time.
Granted, Merkel without being burdened by the majority of ukrainians being for NATO membership - but the others even in disregard of that nuance.
So out of every potential narrative (including Putin wants to be a Tsar and reconquer Poland, and the Baltic States, not just Moldowa and Georgia) out there that still is the closest one to a more complex narrativ including detail that doesnt resort to fortune telling. Or exaggeration. (Putin is taking parts of europe with 200.000, later 600.000 active soldiers, … (1.5 million german soldiers fought in Poland, someone ought to notice the subsequently needed two more reqruitement pushes, they just have to…))
So just because its “the russian talking point” you cant forbid people to think along the lines of that mental shortcut. Regardless of if Gorbachev said thats never been what he agreed on in those negotiations over the unity of Germany.
- Its a war with the west - is currently, as we speak, picked up by western propaganda, as the next war narrative, to counter the german peoples reluctance of “causing” or sleepwalking into world war 3. Because - and now everyone repeat the ZDF narrative with me - we already are in a war with russia. Just a hybrid one. Which we cant fight, because we wouldnt know how to and which we need a strong NATO for to fight for us.
Societal impact: No one fucking believes it.
At least not right now, when the chances for a frozen conflict are as high as never before.
- Russia did it because of the Nazis was never believed haha -
It was more than to be expected, that russia would use this narrative again. As it became obvious, that Ukraine didnt exactly wanted to be rescued, that narrative went out of the window, as the panel correctly states.
Societal impact: None in the west
- There were Biolabs
Horray, give your self a payment increase for figuring that one out as a russian propaganda narrative.
Societal impact: None in the west
- No one should listen to Mearsheimer, because Fiona “we all need to invent and tell narratives, so the russian narratives dont get traction” - quote - this video:
should be listened to instead, because she told us, she is creating those wonderful counternarratives, that are needed for a society in war?
Societal impact: Oh none, in the short term, it just drives the folks insane, that know that thats happening. Because you constantly tell people, if they dont believe in what Fiona says - then you are disseminating russian propaganda. Over time, this is a disaster in the making. Loss of trust, basically.
Oh, and why do I mention, that I have wasted one hour here?
Because all of that is low effort.
The thought of some idiots that claim, that their job is to detect Russian disinformation.
I mean this video released 8 days ago as part of the Woodrow Wilson Center debate track.
For this:
- Not one step eastward didnt exist
Mearsheimer was canceled by the Hoover institution in week two of the full scale war.
So what the fuck, if you pardon my french, did your entire field do for the past two years, and four months?
Tell the public, that counter narratives are so important, because russia is a revisionist, nay neocolonial [shit the global south isnt buying this], nay imperialistic power?
Welcome to the world of countering russian disinformation.
Where countering the narratives within the german society almost creates more problems than it solves.
Aber Hauptsache, man kanns heute studieren und hat dann einen Karrierepfad vor sich, sag ich immer. Gut, und wenn in dem Studienzweig zwei Jahre und vier Monate nichts weitergeht - während eines laufenden Kriegs, dann, ehm -- dann ehm, erzählen wir uns einfach die tollen Counternarrative die wir uns im Monat eins nach dem Krieg überlegt haben!
Pfiew! Gottseidank hat der Russe bis jetzt nicht reagiert, neuere hätte nämlich ein gesamtes Panel im Woodrow Wilson Center vor 8 Tagen nicht entdeckt…
Dieser Russe schon wieder, immer gefinkelt wie ein Fuchs, bleibt der einfach bei seinen Narrativen, die wir bereits vor zwei Jahren und vier Monaten entkräftet haben! Der weiss halt noch, dass Repetition so wichtig ist, der Russe! [Or your entire scientific field is shit.]
edit: At 1:06:50, so 3 minutes and 40 seconds before the end of the video, the main “here is the structure of it” proponent of the panel starts her “I’m worried that the world is very confusing, I’m worried about people thinking, is there a truth, is there any truth out there, can we believe anything that is out there that quesiton is very […] If you dont believe that there is any truth out there, your entire world view, just - it gives up.” spiel. Just imagine getting that story told by another american, whos never left their country, in their lives (might be true, might be not) and you conceptually get what I’m seeing here. Give us SIMPLE, old Voice of America lady! The audience screams silently.
on 2018-11-25 Integrity Initiative responded that those indeed where hacked documents from them, and the leaks were factual, but they didnt see what they were doing wrong.
On 01.09.2019 Udo Voigt, a far right parliamentarian in the european parliament conducted a parliamentary inquiry about „Integrity Initiative“ because of “recent leaks”:
1. Bei der „Integrity Initiative“ handelt es sich um eine Initiative eines Mitgliedstaats, die nicht auf EU-Ebene erörtert wurde.
2. Die East StratCom Task Force arbeitet nicht mit der „Integrity Initiative“ zusammen.
Das Mandat der East StratCom Task Force, das vom Europäischen Rat[1] im Dezember 2018 gebilligt wurde‚ besteht darin, das Bewusstsein für die gezielten Desinformationskampagnen Russlands zu schärfen, von denen viele die EU und ihre Mitgliedstaaten diskreditieren sollen. Die Task Force befasst sich auch damit, die EU-Politik gegenüber der Östlichen Nachbarschaft besser zu kommunizieren und pluralistische Medien zu unterstützen, unter anderem durch systematische Outreach-Maßnahmen gegenüber russischen Journalisten. Die East StratCom Task Force ist nicht an gegen Russland gerichteten Kampagnen beteiligt.
In dem EU-Aktionsplan gegen Desinformation, der von den Staats- und Regierungschefs auf der Tagung des Europäischen Rates im Dezember 2018 gebilligt wurde, wird bestätigt, dass stichhaltige Belege für russische Desinformationsaktivitäten vorliegen und dass diese die größte externe Bedrohung durch Desinformation für die EU darstellen.
3. Die Vizepräsidentin nimmt zu einer Initiative, für die der betreffende Mitgliedstaat zuständig ist, nicht weiter Stellung.
After the fourth leak on 04 January 2019 Integrity Initiative for the first time states on twitter, that part of the documents from the fourth leak were not theirs and were misrepresented as having been part of their Organisation:
The Integrity Initiative claimed on Twitter that some of the documents leaked in batch #4 were not theirs and had been misrepresented as part of the organisation.[1]
How to lose the inforation war - Book written in 2020
So Integrity Initiatives existence, affiliation and their mission statement are undisputed.
Why the entire NGO was closed down is unknown, but their Twitter account stopped being active in February of 2020.
The government ties are also undisputed (propped up by the UK, using a member of the US state department, see f.e. EU parliamental inquiry response).
Part of the first leak, so before the Integrity Initiative disputed for the first time, that the documents werent theirs was also this document which mentions the Zentrum Liberale Moderne as being the “Integrity Initiative Cluster Germany”:
Das Zentrum Liberale Moderne ist 2022 durch ehm -- folgende beiden Küppersbusch Recherchen aufgefallen:
Also, viel zu beanstanden gibt es an den Aussagen von Mike Benz zu Anne Applebaum nicht…
Bleibt nur eine Frage - warum zum Teufel sind das die Ukraine Krieg Experten, denen die deutschsprachigen Qualitätsmedien (und ARTE) vertrauen?
Ach so ja - wegen der russischen Desinformation, klar…
Erklärs mir bitte nochmal, Marieluise Beck-Oberdorf:
OT Arte Reportage: “Jeder Post ist eine Geschichte, ein Gefühl, jedes Video ein Schock. Selenskyj beherrscht Storytelling. Dieser Film wirbt für eine Flugverbotszone über der Ukraine. “If you dont close the sky, mom will cry, if you dont close the sky, he’ll lose home…”
So yesterday, there appeared a red blob in Sumy on deepstatemap.live
deepstatemap.live is an open source intelligence project, run by two ukrainians.
The map and other military analysis collected or made by Deep State UA has been cited by Ukrainian and international media outlets such as the BBC and Ukrainska Pravda. By February 2024, the map has been viewed more than 1 billion times, and has become the most popular digital map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Ukraine, and one of the most popular digital maps of Ukraine globally.
Ruslan Mikula, co-founder of the DeepState analytical project, said on Suspilne Studio that information about the advancement of Russian troops in that area or about the occupation of Alexandria is fake.
“There hasn’t been a single resident in Alexandria for over 20 years. No one has lived there for a long time. Nothing has happened, the shelling is neither intensifying nor decreasing. Yesterday, the KAB arrivedwithin the community, but everything worked out. The situation is difficult, but it is what it is — without change, thank God.”
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