why not Martin Sklenár who served as minister of defence of Slovakia from May until October 2023:
Just to get a sense of whats happening here.
Our position: Great, good! Bestest in the world!
Lawrow: Always a filthy liar, of course.
OSCE: Somehow not able to fulfill their role as a negotiation plattform! Bad OSCE! Bad. Dont do diplomacy like you normaly would do! Wertewesten.
Lies, upon lies, upon lies but the nuances matter.
Like Martin Sklenár mentioning, that “this is so difficult” because there are two tracks within the diplomatic community as well - on how to solve the issue.
(Ie.
1. solve it
2. beat russia, phiew, that solved it! )
edit: In that context - also always lovely to hear the Alpbach expert tell the public, that he doesnt agree with us not telling the public the real sticking points of europe in regards to the european security architechture.
If Kurt Volker is in the know, I’m about 75% sure.
The fucking smirks at the end of the interview are just too much.
Essentially the US government wants to fuck Russia, and lie to western populations a bit more.
Ukraine will be “pressured” to agree to peace negotiations, but actually they dont have to be pressured (Kurt Volker correctly mentions), because the US will include Ukraines maximalist goal in their demands.
Namely their FAKE “we are always open to negotiations” position from 2022 is back. Where the Ukraine agrees, that it doesnt have to get Crimea back militarily, but it will automatically be handed back to them (administration of Crimea will be) in 20 years time.
Thats the Putin can die in peace, and then russia goes to hell (looses the harbor it has 40% of its exports run through, an the strategic asset Putin went to war over.) offer that leaves everyone in Kiew and Washington in ecstasy over how very clever they were. And after 20 years, kills russia economically. (No “colonies” in africa anymore. Russian power projection broken in to the black sea and the mediterranean. As soon as Ukraine joins Nato, and gets Crimea back.)
Which is what the US aimed for from day one.
Which is what Selenskyj framed “a just peace”.
By now half of western media is putting up the lie, that Selenskyjs position has changed, which it hasnt.
It was always - negotiations can be possible at an earlier point, and then “I will sit down with Putin and tell him how we will get crimea back in 20 years -- through me very, very clever politics”.
.
Here are two instances of Ukraine holding that position in 2022:
edit: Future me: Here is a bonus third (with a France 24 Moderator interpretation): click
Russia will not agree, Trump will then deliver more weapons.
So essentially Trump was “convinced” by offers made by Ukraine. The “this is a new position for Selenskjy” narrative is just in play so Trump can keep face.
Scholz did his 180 not as a pre election tactic, but because he had to. Russia will of course not agree to this, then Trump will deliver more weapons. Then the war will continue.
Harsher US sanctions on russian banks a few days ago also fall in line with this.
Next step on the escalation spiral, here we come.
We dont know the Trump administrations position on NATO yet.
All according to Kurt Volker, although he states, that he cant say for sure. But for that the positions exchanged are too detailed and too nuanced and the “we’ve got it, we fucked the public over one more time smirk of the TVP anchor” is too sickening.
So I’m 75% sure by now that this is how it will play out.
edit: Turns out Kurt Volker wasnt.
Trump deutet Kehrtwende in künftiger US-Ukraine-Politik an
Der bevorstehende Amtsantritt von Donald Trump als US-Präsident wirft in der Ukraine-Politik seine Schatten voraus: Trump kritisierte in einem am Donnerstag veröffentlichten Time-Interview den Einsatz von US-Raketen für ukrainische Angriffe auf militärische Ziele tief in Russland. Er stellte damit die von US-Präsident Joe Biden gegebene Erlaubnis infrage und verstärkte Sorgen in der Ukraine und Europa, dass er die Unterstützung der Ukraine nach Amtsantritt beenden könnte.
In Warschau berieten der polnische Ministerpräsident Donald Tusk und Frankreichs Präsident Emmanuel Macron über die Ukraine-Politik. In Berlin warnte Kanzler Olaf Scholz davor, dass Entscheidungen über den Kopf der Ukrainer hinweg getroffen werden könnten.
“Ich lehne es vehement ab, Raketen Hunderte von Kilometern nach Russland zu schicken”, erklärte Trump in dem Interview. “Warum tun wir das? Wir eskalieren diesen Krieg nur und machen ihn noch schlimmer.
Die Recherchenetzwerke haben es bis zu den Counterintelligence Abteilungen ihrer jeweiligen Länder geschafft. Die haben sie weitervermittelt.
Jan Marsalek soll Entführung oder Tötung von Journalist Grozev überlegt haben
Ein Prozess gegen Marsaleks mutmaßliche Handlanger liefert tiefe Einblicke, wie der österreichische Ex-Spitzenmanager als russischer Spion agiert haben soll
Nach der Überlegung wurde diese verworfen. Gut, brauchen wir ja weder im Titel, noch im Untertitel.
Absatz 11 reicht.
Chats zeigen, wie gefährlich die Situation für Grozev war: So sollen Marsalek und Roussev, der Anführer der Gruppe, nicht nur die Überwachung von Grozev besprochen haben, sondern sogar Pläne gehegt haben, ihn zu entführen und nach Russland zu verbringen – oder ihn zu töten. Das sei dann aber verworfen worden, heißt es in der Anklageschrift.
Im Sommer 2022 nahm die Aktion wieder an Fahrt auf: Dieses Mal wurde ein Einbruch in Grozevs Apartment geplant.
Quelle: Eine Anklageschrift (!), die sich auf Chatprotokolle bezieht. Die nicht veröffentlicht werden. In denen ersichtlich sei, dass die Pläne verworfen wurden. Verschärfend käme jedoch hinzu, dass ein Einbruch geplant worden sei.
Unfassbar! Dazu auch gerne Spiegel: Jagt die CIA Assanges Unterstützer? - “Einbrüche, Observationen, Abhöraktionen: In der Unterstützerszene des WikiLeaks-Gründers Julian Assange häufen sich seit Jahren Merkwürdigkeiten. Wer dahintersteckt, ist unklar – aber die Betroffenen haben Vermutungen.”
Der Hausmeister! Das war sicher der Hausmeister.
Teil 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDw8RFjMeKA
Als Katalonien seine Unabhängigkeitsbestrebungen verfolgt, nimmt die katalonische Seite Kontakt mit Russland auf. So auf dem Level “wir wären dann für die Unabhängigkeit der Krim, tut was für uns”. Der Kreml lotet aus was geht. Es existiert ein Telefonmitschnitt auf dem die russische Kontaktperson darüber spricht, nachgehakt zu haben, ob sie denn den Separatisten 10.000 Soldaten schicken sollten - die Kontaktperson um das politisch zu ermöglichen wäre wohl in der Flughafenlogistik zu suchen - sowas könne man planen. Die Seperatistenführung bekommts mit der Angst zu tun (Was Unabhängigkeitsbestrebungen mit Einheiten des Militärs eines anderen Staates? Wo gibts denn sowas! (Gut, war Europa, ist jetzt ein bisschen heikel, weil Wertewesten.)) und bricht den Kontakt ab.
Teil 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDw8RFjMeKA
Die Recherchenetzwerke vergessen die Vereinbarung von Merkel, dass sobald Nordstream 2 für politische Zwecke missbraucht werden würde, Deutschland ihre Nutzung einstellen würde zu erwähnen.
Machen aber einen 30 Minüter aus - Putin hat nach den Sanktionen der Unternehmen die Nordstream 2 fertigstellen sollten, den Leiter des Nordstream 2 Projekts ins zuständige Landesparlament geschickt! (Ein ehemaliger Stasi Agent.) Nein! Und der Landtag hätte dann beschlossen, dass eine Initiative des deutschen Staates die Pipelineanbindung fertigstellen würde (Klimastiftung). Unter dem Schirm eine Naturschutzinitiative zu sein, was sie zu einer Vereinigung mit Verbindung zu einer EU Institution gemacht hätte, die laut US Gesetzgebung nicht sanktionierbar war.
ARTE spricht mit einer Umweltaktivistin die den Methanfussabdruck von Flüssiggas Tankern nicht kennt, und mit einem Grünen Abgeordneten, der mit dem Kamerateam durch die Heide geht, und dann den Zusehern öffentlich mitteilt, dass die Rohre im Boden eine Schande wären, weil sie ja nach Russland führen sollten. Der sich für die Aufklärung der Angelegenheit einsetzt und immer geschwärzte Dokumente bekommt.
Dann noch mit einem Anwalt der Journalisten gegen das Land Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vertritt (Informationsfreiheitsgesetz).
Die Steuerung der Operation durch Gasprom, um die US Sanktionen durch eine deutsche Stiftung zu umgehen ist wahrscheinlich.
Der Klimaschutz sei hier nur vorgeschoben worden! Mit der Fertigstellung der Pipeline wäre mehr Geld hereingekommen, als die Klimastiftung, ehm durch andere Aktivitäten, ehm, …
Unglaublich!
Dieser Russe schon wieder. Nie hält er sich an US Drohungen an Deutschland! Um am Ende die Ukraine zu schwächen.
Trotz der politischen Vereinbarung von Merkel Nordstream 2 nicht mehr zu nutzen, sobald Russland sie politisch nutzen würde. Die nicht erwähnt wird.
Aber die Sicherheitsinteressen der Ukraine seien untergraben worden, da die Ukraine für die Gaslieferung nicht mehr notwendig gewesen wäre. Stimmt. Aber da gabs dann andere Verträge die der Ukraine eine Auslastung in einem bestimmten Bereich zugesagt haben (über NS2 wäre mehr Gas nach Deutschland gekommen). Die auch mal auslaufen können. Da hatte die Ukraine nicht viel Zeit sich was zu überlegen.
Nix ist passiert, aber Russland hat schon mal angefragt, ob sie Katalonien 10.000 Soldaten schicken sollen. Russland hatte ein Interesse Nordstream 2 fertig zu stellen. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern hat dafür eine Stiftung gegründet. Und man habe über eine mögliche Ermordung eines Journalisten gesprochen, sich aber dagegen entschieden, zeigen Chatprotokolle, die Teil einer Anklageschrift sind.
Bitte mehr von solchen umwerfenden investigativen Enthüllungen.
Ich kann Teil 2 der ARTE Reportage kaum abwarten.
Diese Russe schon wieder, nie macht der einfach geheimdienstlich mal nichts! Und die Netzwerke Putins erst!
Die Nordstream 2 Gesellschaft.
Und der Katalane der in Spanien nach Russen gefragt hat die Putin kennen!
Und, und dem Jan Marsalek seine Chats!
Morgen hat Russland keinen FSB mehr, wenn das so weitergeht… Und das nur dank unseren Recherchenetzwerken.
edit: Es gibt aber natürlich auch wieder gute Nachrichten - Münchner Sicherheitsunternehmen stellt privat tausende Lancet Equivalent Drohnen (12kg Nutzlast) mit autonomem Terrain mapping her, die doppelt so schnell wie Lancets fliegen und zweieinhalb mal so viel Reichweite haben, um sie demnächst an die Ukraine zu verkaufen:
Panel Interview of the historians that have eaten the context by the spoonfulls society.
Lucian Kim, Kennan Institute presents his new book.
Fiona Hill, introduces him to the public, as one of her main sources, then watches over his statements.
Lucian Kim, then starts to give a historical rundown, of how the war came to be.
Here is the structure of his argument:
I remind you, not my words, his.
- Everything was swell the border was open, people went back and forth between russia and ukraine, people had a jolly good time.
- Then Selenskyj was voted into power. At first, he was seen as a russian tool, because he wanted to make a deal with russia, but then his views changed. [No reason named, why his views changed, well some ULTRANATIONALIST protests outsides of some government buildings maybe - I’ve heard those can, on occasion, ruin your day! On France 24. By a documentary filmmaker. *cough* (link not at hand, but it was one of those 4 pundits and a moderator debate panels they do, with the only intelligent moderator, go and find it for me, please - it was this year, only a few weeks, maybe months ago)]
- Then of course Selenskyj HAD to reneg on Misnk II he simply had to renegotiate the agreement.
- But Putin didnt want to renegotiate Minsk II, partly because of Sevastopol where the russian fleet was stationed, which was of strategical importance in his thinking.
- So Ukraine didnt want to follow the Minsk II agreements, while russia was in violation [change of argument, previously Selenskyj wanted to reneg Minsk II], there was no reason for Ukraine to fulfill Minsk II.
- Then Putin used the troop movements as a pressure tactic
- Then Selenskyj put Wiktor Medwedtschuk under House arrest, so russia lost all of its remaining soft power.
- Also about 5 minutes earlier: Putins decision to attack was made at some point in 2021, Putin didnt want this war to go on for over 3 years, thats why he called it a special military operation [again not my words, Lucian Kim]
ATTHATPOINTFIONACARESTOINTERJECT.
Yes, you see - there are many things people see as reasons for why various developments happened since 2014 [we were in the years 2021-2022 in the retelling of the story, mind you], and Putins reasoning shifted [names them, then disregards them as not important], but there also is something evolutionary, not devolutionary about Putin, because look at what Putin said about the history, how do you think his idea of history was shifted!?!=?!?! Are there people who shaped that?
And now quote:
Lucian Kim: “Thats a great question! Of course everyone is always trying to get into Putins mind. [no, not everyone - just Fiona], but if you think about where Putin was when he started his term in office and where his mind was in 2022, when he started, Putin was thought of as a pragmatic leader, inside of russia, but also, certainly in Ukraine, he was actually a very popular politician in Ukraine, and certainly in the West people thought of him as someone you could make deals with, mutually beneficial deals with, and it appears that Putin was interested in some sort of national revival […] and what I try to describe in my book, one of the characters that came into play here was Igor Girkin, former FSB officer, that played a key role in the takeover of Crimea, and in forming the insergency in the Donbas, and I describe him as - ahm, an ULTRANATIONALIST, someone believing in russian autocracy, in russian empire, .. and even at that time, he was a freak, and he was used by the Kremlin, he was used as a usefull figure by the Kremlin, and even became the defense minister of the socalled Donezk Republic [WOOW! LOOKATTHISTHOUGHTLEADER! (Kremlin puppet)] and when the Kremlin didnt need him, they droped him, they made clear, that he was doing his own thing, and the seperatists in the Donbas needed their own separatist leaders… And at that time Girkin was a freak on the fringes (2014) […] and at the end of that peoriod he would actually say a lot of things, that Alexej Nawalny would say, national revival of russia, … I describe Putin going across the spectrum. We are all in this spectrum of russian nationalism. But going from Alexej Nawalny who had a european vision over to Girkin, who had the vision of empire … […] Thats how I would describe his [Putins] path.
REASONGIVEN: NONEWHATSOEVER
Let me interject for a moment here, in October of 2021 Ukraine was using US delivered Javelins in the Donbas, and gave US Military journals interviews, that they were highly effective at fighting the separatists there.
Which Chomsky made surface as an argument in the international debate.
22. 11. 2021: the-drive.com (some military news website): Ukrainian Troops Have Been Firing American-Made Javelin Missiles At Russian-Backed Forces Ukrainian Brigadier General Kyrylo Budanov talked about the operational use of Javelins as part of a recent interview with Military Times, which he conducted through an interpreter. Budanov, who runs the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, also known by its Ukrainian acronym GURMOU, used the opportunity to call for more help from the U.S. government as he sounded like the alarm about the Kremlin’s unusual deployments of large numbers of military units to areas opposite Russia’s borders with Ukraine in recent weeks.
That enough of a reason? I mean, losing all soft pressure tools, having the military pressure of units at the border not work, and foreseeably losing the Donbas to Ukrainian troops, because they used US made Javelins for the first time? In the Donbas. Where Girkin formerly was the russian installed “defense minister”? Because of yeah, that thing, that strategic importance of Sevastopol you mentioned earlier.… (Crimea can not be secured, when Ukraine holds the Donbas -- Sluice Gates, all water needed for irrigation (grain, corn, ..) are in the Donbas.) And Ukraine didnt want to stop after regaining the Donbas. Kinda obviously.
Yeah just lets not mention that the military power balance was overturned (russian backed seperatists, not the full russian Army against the Ukrainian Army, now with Javelins, no biggy… It was just the former Ukrainian Defense minister who said the following on 24.11.2019
The aid, including counter-artillery battery radar, night-vision gear and patrol boats, has since [in the later parts of the Trump administration] been unfrozen and is making a real difference to Ukrainian forces fighting Russian-backed separatists in eastern districts.
But it is the Javelin which appears to be a game-changer, Ukraine’s defence minister told CBC News.
“In certain areas, they can make a critical difference,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk.
-- oh and by the way - they werent allowed to use those Javelins until the US cleared them for use inside of Ukraine, even when russia hadnt invaded (“officially”) in December of 2021. Yeah, I have no Idea, why Gurkin could suddenly convince Putin, that the Kremlin should change strategy, …
No idea, whatsoever.…
That factoid, just slipped my mind.
And Lucian Kims, for that matter.
During a phone conversation on 2 January 2022 between the US and Ukrainian presidents, President Biden declared that the US and its allies ‘will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine’. Already during his candidacy, Joe Biden was outspoken about Ukraine’s role in US foreign policy and acknowledged the possibility of providing security assistance and weapons. President Zelenskyy visited Washington in September 2021 and met President Biden. The Joint Statement on the US-Ukraine Strategic Partnership reaffirmed US support for ‘Ukraine’s right to decide its own future foreign policy course free from outside interference, including with respect to Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO’. Moreover, President Biden announced a US$60 million security assistance package, including additional Javelin anti-armour systems and forthcoming joint hardware production through Ukroboronprom. Washington recognises Ukraine as ‘central to the global struggle between democracy and autocracy’. In late December 2021, defensive military aid worth US$200 million was approved, with deliveries already arriving. In January 2022, the US approved the sending of American-made anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine by the Baltic States.
edit: On the point, that Putins goal with the military invasion was to install a puppet candidate in Kiew, I agree. Might likely still be his goal (sabotage the independence of Ukraine). But. Ukraine with Odessa and the Donau harbors can possibly retain independence economically. Issue then becomes, military pressure, military control over black sea trade, and soft power influence over a “forced neutral” Ukraine. All but the last one can be solved by security guaranties. Last one could be solved by “partial Ukraine” becoming a member of NATO and the EU, but not if Selenskyj keeps insisting, only the entire Ukraine can become part of NATO.
edit: Erste Publikumsfrage von Nataliya Gumenyuk (1|2)! Meine güte Zufälle gibts! Ich glaube das wurde von Russland sicher positiv gelesen!
edit2: Atlantic Council BLEH from June 20 2024, on why Ukraine REALLY needs the Donbas. If you havent guessed it by now, its because of Hilter…
Of course, there is an ocean of suspicion between Moscow and Kyiv. Ukraine deeply distrusts Russia, as Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea, support for the Donbas insurgency, and 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine violate the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Russia agreed to respect Ukraine’s borders and sovereignty.
Worse, some possible peace terms, such as granting Russia permanent control of the economically valuable and militarily important Donbas region, would shift the balance of power in Russia’s favor. Ukraine would be especially unlikely to accept this kind of deal, because it would expand a strengthened Russia’s incentives to break the deal down the line. This was one reason why Churchill refused to negotiate, as he feared that Nazi leader Adolf Hitler would demand British colonies and naval disarmament in any peace deal, leaving Britain helpless to resist eventual German demands for total British capitulation.
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