UvdL math:
“We still get a lot of LNG from Russia and why not replace it by American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices,” said von der Leyen.
She said the EU approach to trade policies implemented when Donald Trump takes power again as U.S. president in January will be to engage, look at common interests and negotiate.The EU estimates that about 4 billion to 6 billion cubic meters (141 billion to 212 billion cubic feet) of Russian LNG was shipped to third countries via EU ports last year.
src: click
4 bcm/y more LNG from the US = 8% increase year over year.
6 bcm/y more LNG from the US = 12% increase year over year.
Russian LNG exports, however, have remained relatively stable, hovering between 41 and 45 bcm/y between 2021 and 2023, with heavy maintenance at the Sakhalin-2 and Yamal LNG liquefaction plants last year.[viii] Around half of this LNG is exported to EU countries, a trend that has been increasing since 2021.
src: click (Columbia/SIPA)
42/2 = 21
21 bcm/y more LNG from the US = 42% increase year over year.
UvdL math.
We still get a lot of LNG from Russia and why not replace it by American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices
EU LNG prices hit fresh year high as Asian equivalents stall
vor 1 Tag — The landing price for LNG delivered ex-ship to northwest Europe in December rose USD 0.79 to settle late on Thursday at USD 14.11/MMbtu
src: click
USD 14.11/MMbtu = 45.493 EUR/MWh
Date of the UvdL statement: November 08th 2024.
EU Natural Gas TTF on November 08th 2024 = 42 EUR/MWh
EU Natural Gas TTF mean 2024 = 34 EUR/MWh
UvdL math.
The main alternative monetization option for Russian gas from YaNAO is LNG: even without tax allowances, the full cost of LNG from the Yamal peninsula in China is $6 to $7 per mmbtu, depending on the shipping route (the Northern Sea Route is cheaper).
src: click (McKinsey 2018)
Russian LNG would be competitive at $3.7-$7 per 1 mln BTU (Reuters 2021)
UvdL math.
