Einfach verarschen ist eine Möglichkeit…
Moskaus Hungerwaffe wird zum Bumerang
Mit dem Ende des Getreideabkommens schadet Wladimir Putin seinen Verbündeten. Aber noch wichtiger ist es für ihn, innenpolitisch Stärke zu zeigen
[…]
Auswirkungen halten sich in Grenzen
Die Auswirkungen auf die globale Lebensmittelversorgung dürften sich dennoch in Grenzen halten. Die Welt hat sich auf dieses Szenario eingestellt, es gibt zahlreiche alternative Quellen, und selbst unter dem Abkommen ist deutlich weniger Getreide aus der Ukraine exportiert worden als vor dem Krieg. Gerade die geringere Dringlichkeit kann dazu beitragen, dass sich die Verhandlungen in die Länge ziehen.
src: click
Frey vom Standard, dazu der CFR vor vier Tagen:
Moscow’s exit from the deal generated alarm in a number of populous lower-income countries dependent on Ukrainian grain.
[…]
In addition to raising food prices, the grain deal’s demise could mean countries will wait longer for imports as Ukraine is forced to use lower-capacity land routes to ship its products. It could also cause Ukrainian farmers to plan for smaller harvests next year, meaning food insecurity for hundreds of millions of people will remain a concern even if Russia agrees to rejoin the deal.
src: click
Das Getreide über Bahnverbindungen zu schicken ist so teuer, dass es sich für die meisten Bauern in der Ukraine nicht mehr rentiert…
Naja, der Frey hats wohl anders gehört…
Quellenangabe? Wozu.
edit: Frey liegt richtig.
Experts say not renewing the Black Sea grain deal could cause food prices to again climb. However, they say the worldwide food situation is not as volatile as it was last year because other countries are now producing more grain to counterbalance losses from Ukraine, including Argentina, Brazil, and European nations.
src: click
Argentinien:
Production is estimated at 19.5 million tonnes, but the FAS said more rains are needed to recharge soil moisture profiles before the June planting window. Production for 2022-23 is estimated at 12.5 million tonnes.
Argentine wheat exports in 2023-24 are projected to rebound at 13.7 million tonnes, more than double the exports expected in 2022-23, and the third highest on record.
[…]
Exports for 2022-23 are estimated at 5.8 million tonnes, the lowest in the past eight years.
src: click
Brasilien:
Brazil is expected to harvest a record 317.5 million tonnes of grains for the 2022-23 cycle, which is 44.9 million tonnes (16.5%) more than the previous year, according to the 10th Grain Harvest Survey by Conab, the country’s food supply and statistics agency.
src: click
Und Transportwege über die Donau haben sich aufgetan:
“While Russia may pledge to get out of the deal, are others going to step in here?” Basse said. “Are the Turks going to provide military convoys to get grain out of the corridor? Those are possibilities, and I think the market also may be understanding that there are other export avenues for Ukraine.”
The Danube River, for instance, increased its grain export capacity from several hundred thousand tonnes per month before the war began 17 months ago to more than 2 million tonnes today.
“If indeed the corridor stayed down — I think that’s the big question, if the corridor went out of commission for the next 12 months — it would raise the price to Ukrainian farmers in terms of logistics and cost to get grain to market,” Basse said. “But because Ukraine has smaller carry-in stocks, and because their crops are going to be far smaller this year, I think they would be able to export through Eastern Europe and the Danube (River) and get out some 3 million tonnes per month. That would allow them to rid themselves of any crop production this year.
“Unless the Danube gets plugged, the opportunity for Ukraine to still get grain out is going to be OK. In the European Union, because of weather adversities, they may need a fair portion of the Ukrainian corn crop anyway. So, if Ukraine’s corn crop ends up being 20 million tonnes, and exports end up being 12 million tonnes, probably 10 million of those tonnes could flow into the EU.”
Langfristig wird es für die ukrainischen Bauern zum Problem:
Developing countries, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, traditionally have been dependent on affordable wheat from Ukraine to feed its people. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has destabilized the market in terms of price and supply in those regions.
“In terms of wheat, (Ukraine) is still needed in the world wheat market, and it would have an adverse impact for portions of central Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa,” Basse said. “The cost would be higher, but I don’t think tonnages from what they would have put out through the corridor are going to be disrupted all that much.
“I do think there are workarounds that the Ukrainians can find with their smaller harvest this year. Unfortunately, it will cost more money logistically speaking, so the price of that grain may be more expensive in Sub-Saharan Africa or North Africa. But I still think there are avenues for that grain to make it out of Ukraine. They’ve been working on these avenues, not just in the last three months, but really going backwards the last six to nine months. We now have export channels down the Danube, and the Constanta (port) has been exporting more grain.”
While buyers may be equipped to weather the storm, a lengthy suspension of the grain deal would devastate Ukrainian farmers, who already have been battered by the war’s impact, high inflation on inputs such as fuel and fertilizer, and a significant increase in transportation costs and logistical challenges, Basse said.
“You wonder how long they keep operating without a financial lifeline, because there’s no financing available,” Basse said. “I know some Ukrainian aid agencies are going around the US and Europe, trying to raise money. But increasingly, the Ukrainian farmer is the one that’s going to suffer, both large and small. Maybe the smaller ones can hold on better than the larger ones, but it’s a question of capital. The longer this war goes on, the more adversely it impacts Ukrainian agriculture.
“You can probably take this year’s corn and wheat crops that are cut by 30% to 40% from last year and cut them by a third again. Increasingly, this is wearing on the Ukrainian farmer.”
The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture projects wheat output in Ukraine to decline to 17.5 million tonnes in the 2023-24 marketing year, down from the record 33 million in 2021-22. It sees exports declining to 10.5 million tonnes from 16.8 million in 2022-23 and 18.9 million the year prior to that.
The USDA forecast corn production to dip slightly to 25 million tonnes from 27 million, while it expects exports to be slashed to 19.5 million this year from 28 million tonnes in 2022-23.
Tanner Ehmke, lead economist, grains and oilseeds, CoBank, noted in a social media post that “the announcement comes at a low point in the shipping season, which buys time for Ukraine to work out alternative routes before traffic picks up this fall. Global demand can easily shift to alternative origins: Russian wheat shipments remain record large, while Brazil’s safrihna corn crop is also record large.”
src: click
