harlekin.me

Belast­bar im Sin­ne von nicht offen­sicht­lich inflated.

Laut einem Bericht der unab­hän­gi­gen rus­si­schen Medi­en Medu­za und Media­zo­na vom 28. Juni deu­ten kürz­lich ver­öf­fent­lich­te Sterb­lich­keits­da­ten dar­auf hin, dass bis­her über 64.000 rus­si­sche Män­ner (Sol­da­ten und Zivi­lis­ten) bei Kämp­fen in der Ukrai­ne getö­tet wur­den. Dar­über berich­tet die ukrai­ni­sche Zei­tung The Kyiv Independent.

[…]

Die Daten wür­den eine Übersterb­lich­keit unter jun­gen Män­nern im Ver­gleich zur Situa­ti­on vor der umfas­sen­den Inva­si­on Russ­lands in der Ukrai­ne zei­gen. Auch die Sterb­lich­keits­ra­te bei Män­nern all­ge­mein habe sich im Ver­gleich zu 2022 fast ver­dop­pelt. Die Ergeb­nis­se deu­ten dar­auf hin, dass es im Jahr 2022 24.000 zusätz­li­che Todes­fäl­le bei Män­nern und im Jahr 2023 40.500 zusätz­li­che Todes­fäl­le bei Män­nern gab.

Medu­za und Media­zo­na schätz­ten im Febru­ar 2024 anhand von Nachlass- und Erb­schafts­ak­ten, dass bei der umfas­sen­den Inva­si­on der Ukrai­ne min­des­tens 83.000 rus­si­sche Sol­da­ten getö­tet wor­den sei­en. Die nied­ri­ge­ren Zah­len des Sta­tis­tik­diens­tes Ross­tat könn­ten laut The Kyiv Inde­pen­dent unter ande­rem dar­auf zurück­zu­füh­ren sein, dass eini­ge mili­tä­ri­sche Todes­fäl­le aus den Daten aus­ge­schlos­sen wur­den. (lm)

src: click (Frank­fur­ter Rundschau)

Gre­at! So now we can do the same on the Ukrai­ni­an side and…

Oh…

Well gosh darn it, they stop­ped publi­shing num­bers in 2021. Even to the WHO.

Well and Eurostat.

And SSSU (Sta­te Sta­tis­tics Ser­vice of Ukraine).

And Our world in Data.

src: click (Part of: click)

Gre­at!

Wait, but whats that - worl­do­me­ter still got data!

And what does it.…

To com­pa­re the death toll in Ukrai­ne with the one in mili­ta­ry actions in time of Bal­kan con­flicts, Table 2 (esti­ma­ted by the aut­hor on the basis of data from [21; 27; 28]) shows a recount of the avail­ab­le mor­ta­li­ty esti­ma­tes in the Russian-Ukrainian war per 100,000 of popu­la­ti­on. This recount is made using the death toll data by year publis­hed by experts of Our World in Data. It resul­ted in 82,588 mili­ta­ry and civi­li­ans in 2022. The­se data do not dif­fer much from the ones publis­hed by Upp­sa­la Uni­ver­si­ty (81,943 per­sons), alt­hough, as obser­ved on Our World in Data web­site, its ana­lysts refi­ne the data pro­vi­ded by this uni­ver­si­ty using sup­ple­men­ta­ry sources.

src: click (Part of: click)

Hmm Upp­sa­la data set…

Oh, the­re it is!

UCDP - Upp­sa­la Con­flict Data Program

https://ucdp.uu.se/country/369

Holy mother of Jebus!

(Num­bers of Deaths in a con­flict in Rus­sia natu­ral­ly isnt as high in the same source:

)

Well we can stil hope, that rus­sia fud­ged their num­bers well enough so Medu­za didnt catch it..

edit: Ah! Important inkling:

2023

Fol­lowing a peri­od of heigh­ten ten­si­on, mili­ta­ry buil­dups, and diplo­ma­tic thre­ats, Rus­sia began a full-scale ass­ault on Ukrai­ne on Febru­a­ry 24 2022. Throughout 2023, the con­flict per­sis­ted with unaba­ted inten­si­ty, and com­ba­tant fata­li­ties incre­a­sed signi­fi­cant­ly. Due to a mas­si­ve 93% decre­a­se in civi­li­an and unknown deaths, from over 37,000 in 2022 to just under 2,500 in 2023, around 21,000 fewer fata­li­ties were recor­ded com­pa­red to 2022. Civi­li­an fata­li­ties drop­ped as vio­lence shifted away from major popu­la­ti­on cen­ters such as Kyiv, Mariu­pol, and Khar­kiv, and ins­tead beca­me con­cen­tra­ted in lar­ge­ly evacua­ted cities such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

So civi­li­an deaths in the 2022-23 peri­od: Around 39.500.

So 172.200-39.500 = 132.700

Also:

Accord­ing to Pri­go­zhin, the Wag­ner group had recrui­ted 50 000 con­victs from Rus­si­an pri­sons to fight in Ukrai­ne. By the end of Janu­a­ry 2023, only 10 000 con­victs were belie­ved to still be in figh­t­ing con­di­ti­on, the rest having been kil­led, woun­ded or deserted.

Loo­king at the num­bers on the map UCDP pro­vi­des in the Bach­mut regi­on, makes it clear that they inclu­de rus­si­an deaths in their total as well.

So:

132.700 - 83.000 = 49.700

132.700 - 64.000 = 68.700

Also:

Wenn wir Medu­za und UCDP glauben:

83.000 tote Sol­da­ten bei den Rus­sen (62.5%)

49.700 tote Sol­da­ten bei den Ukrai­nern (37.5%)

Wenn wir den rus­si­schen Demo­gra­phie­da­ten und UCDP glauben:

64.000 tote Sol­da­ten bei den Rus­sen (48.2%)

68.700 tote Sol­da­ten bei den Ukrai­nern (51.8%)

For­eign Mer­ce­n­a­ries and unknown deaths not accoun­ted for.

edit: Mean­while in Isra­el: Hold my beer!

186.000 civi­li­an deaths! (8% of the Gaza population)

src: click (thelancet.com)

Veröffentlicht by me am Samstag, 13. Juli 2024 unter Allgemein, Media.