Ein Umstand der diese Empfehlung unserer transatlantischen Freunde vom 22. November 2024 geradezu antiquarisch anmuten lässt:
What, china has 250x the ship building capacity compared to the US at this time? Targeted towards smaller more mobile ships, which are about what you’d need in the future to secure sea routes?
Lets send the germans over there to patrol “our backyard in south asia”, so they’ll learn what the challenges there are, first hand!
I call this:
Have an unsolvable problem again? Plug it with germany!
(Maybe tell them they can do the same they did with russia, pacify them through trade opportunities! No, tell them they can learn how to act tough militarily there! Better argument for the domestic audience!)
The problem still remains unsolveable, but at least now you have side benefits!
Germany wins, and chinese pull back more - Win. Germany loses, and chinese pull German trade options - Win.
Man stelle sich vor, sie stehen als deutscher Marine Admiral auf dem Deck der Gorch Fock, im Südchinesischen Meer, Steuerbord von ihnen die See, Backbord von ihnen das chinesische Festland, und da kommt ihnen soetwas entgegen. Was tun sie? Greifen sie a.) zum Megaphon um den Kaptain des feindlichen Schiffes an die geltenden maritimen Rechte zu erinnern, oder greifen sie b.) zum Satteliten-Telefon um ihre Tochter anzurufen und ihr vorzujammen, dass die Experten in den US den Schuss noch nicht gehört haben.
Zweitens:
Sie erinnern sich an den guten Ratschlag von Gen. Ben Hodges, dem vierten Weltkriegs-Experten dem die Medien vertrauen - vom 22. November 2024 - dass der Ukraine Krieg noch mit Himars zu gewinnen sei:
Dort [France 24] erzählt Ben Hodges nun seinen perfekten Plan wie er Russland, das nicht mehr gewinnen kann, es sei denn eine Seite gibt auf -- schnell und kompromisslos besiegen würde:
Also, so Gen. Ben Hodges -- Russland kann nur machen, was es macht, weil es “Tactical Headquarters”, “Rocket Launchers”, and “Hundreds of thousands of ammunitions” hat. Und wenn man das gezielt vernichten würde, mit Himars nämlich, also dann hätte Russland also nicht nur nicht gewonnen, sondern also definitiv verloren.
Ben Hodges ist damit der erste ehemalige General des US Generalstabs, der nicht mitbekommen hat, was die Taktik der US in der zweiten Kriegsphase war -- vielleicht lassen sie sich das nochmal von einem ehemaligen Stratfor Analysten erklären, und der nicht mitbekommen hat, dass Russland daraufhin seine Versorgungsinfrastruktur so weit wie möglich dezentralisiert hat. Die Ukraine hatte zu dem Zeitpunkt 80 Himars gefordert, da diese zu Anfang dieser Phase sehr effektiv waren, aber nur 20 auf Zeit (über mehrere Monate) von den US bekommen.
Und erhöhen als The right honorable Sir Ben Wallace who served as the british Secretary of State for Defence from 2019 to 2023 gestern bei Chatham House -
auf - nein, also die effektivste Waffe der Ukraine war immer noch die Artilleriegranate, auf deren Produktion sollte sich Europa jetzt fokusieren, und dann rekrutiert die Ukraine noch Frauen, und dann machen wir eine Ausbildungsinitiative von einer Million Ukrainern die in der EU und Großbritannien ausgebildet werden, und dann gewinnen wir diesen Krieg, Putin hat keine Chance.
Naja - zumindest hat der ehemalige britische Verteidigungsminister verstanden, dass Himars den Krieg nicht mehr drehen, und kann rechnen - welches Waffenssystem denn am effektivsten wäre wenn, ehm so ein Drittel der Kriegsfinanzierung im US Senat stecken bleibt, und Europa rechnen müsste.
Und was das erst wieder für einen Aufwind in der deutschen Industrie Produktion bringt! So ein 50 Jähriger Engineer in der Hochtechnologie, der endlich wieder an der Drehbank, im industriellen Rahmen Mörser-Rohre drehen darf, die durch LNG Verstromung betrieben wird. Da schrumpft sich die deutsche Wirtschaft im Nuh gesund.
Nur Propaganda hat immer noch niemand von den deutschsprachigen Medien entdeckt, was will man machen…
Naja -- dann kann der Krieg ja endlich wieder weitergehen.
The former Syrian foreign minister is still in place. The Syrian UN delegation is still in place and was giving interviews two days ago that they now would work for the new regime, because they like working for the Syrian people. And that of course the new regime would still work in tandem with the UN, mostly on humanitarian efforts…
Sadly I lost the Youtube clip with the interview of the lead of the delegation. Was uploaded by an account with an italians persons name - so probably not easily vetted by me - but boy, was that a very well managed coup!
I just leave you with the following France 24 panel instead:
edit: See also:
NNA - Syria’s permanent representative to the UN on Monday said his mission has received instructions to continue doing its job in New York as part of an effort “to maintain state institutions.”
Koussay Aldahhak also called on the UN and the Security Council to put an end to Israeli attacks on his country.
“We’re with the Syrian people. We’ll keep defending and working for the Syrian people. So we’ll continue our work until further notice,” he said.
The collapse of the Assad regime followed a lightning offensive that lasted less than two weeks. On Sunday, insurgents swept into the capital Damascus to topple the regime and send President Bashar Assad fleeing. Russian news agencies report that he has been granted asylum in Moscow.
As with West Germany, which joined NATO in 1955, NATO’s defense guarantee would apply only to that part of Ukrainian territory under control of the Ukrainian government. The United States should reject Russia’s demand for forced neutrality and de facto disarmament for Ukraine.
Same status for annexed territories possible as with crimea.
As a NATO member, Ukraine would commit to restore its territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders through peaceful and diplomatic means. Before its accession, allies would take additional steps to integrate Ukraine into the Alliance, in particular by offering Ukraine a permanent seat at the North Atlantic Council and a Ukrainian general a seat at the Military Committee.
The rest is all fuck the EU, and US will do the bare minumum.
The United States and its allies need a new policy of containment of Russia. This also includes maintaining hold on the immobilized Russian sovereign assets and restrictions on technology, and caution in lifting sanctions. There should be no return to reliance on Russian energy or other resources. Allies should be prepared to intensify economic pressure and make Russia pay the price should it violate ceasefire terms.
This leaves it open to Ukraine to try to attain advantages militarily (oh but its not us, its the local rebel groups, with their hate towards the russian invaders…) until it has gained full Nato membership, at which point all Nato countries would commit to restore its territorial integrity “through peaceful means”.
So its partisan warfare until the point where europe permanently is willing to fuck itself as part of its permanent political NATO commitment to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine. A THINGWHICHISNOTMILITARILYATTAINABLEFORTHEFORSEEABLEFUTURE. (30 years, then I dont care anymore.)
Something that only the University of Michigan could come up with.… 8006kms away.
edit: No, wait, wait - this gets better! Hey Japan, and the Philippines, can I interest you in a NATO membership? We are the transatlantic union, that politically fights for the full territorial integrity of Ukraine! Hey, where are you running? No, no - wait, Ukraine is not a full member yet, they can still attack russia trough covert means and, … Helloo!? Stop! Stop!
Russland ist durch Assad-Sturz “zum Bittsteller geworden” - Jäger zu neuer Situation in Nahost | ntv
Ups. Reality.
Oder wie die Durchschnittsbevölkerung das sehen würde:
Ich wünschte wir hätten mehr Experten wie Prof. Jäger. Immer freundlich, sachlich, mit sachkundigen Analysen und niemals polemisch. Klasse!
(Youtube Kommentar)
Hintergrund: Das ist Teil des Narratives, dass Russland zu Verhandlungen gezwungen werden müsse.
Was auch stimmt, wenn es nach US Demands in 20 Jahren die Krim wieder an Kiew zurückgeben müsste. Dem fairem Friedensplan von Selenskyj sei Dank.
Und dann erst das Potential als Verhandlungsmasse! Russland! Wenn du jetzt nicht zum Waffenstillstand bereit bist, dann bekommst du Syrien nicht wieder! Ehmn, aja, das bekommst du so und so nicht wieder ehm… Aber wenn du den Krieg jetzt nicht binnen 23 Jahren einstellst, dann! Jahaaa!
edit: Ah, they might be loosing more of a foothold than previously thought…
So here is your short track on what russian disinformation is according to a Wilson Center panel of experts:
- Not one step eastward didnt exist
- There were no Biolabs
- We did it because of the Nazis, which no one believed, haha
- Its a war with the west
- Mearsheimer ISBESTWHENHEISCANCELED
Thats the entire knowledge of the US field of disinformation studies in four and a half bullet points.
And here is what I see when I’m watching that video.
- Just believe in yourself, and the country and us being good, as a prerequisite to “counter disinformation” check
- Also dont mention that Mearsheimer picked that up, not because of russian propaganda, but because of international relations theory, namely the realist school of international relations theory -- the one he is the main proponent of currently, and for that was deplatformed on March 6th 2022, two weeks after the war started, by an enitre newly founded “panel interview series” at the Hoover Institution for holding that opinion (three prong strategy play, see: The New Yorker article)
Societal impact of that - devastating
Why? Because in germany that was a large minorities shortcut on what was happening in foreign politics over the better part of 15 years. Namely that Merkel and her french counterpart prevented Nato enlargement. Because they - and Merkel stated as such, thought that it would prevent a military confrontation. (The last time, 11 days ago: click)
Why? Because the inverse - that Ukraine just should be able to enter NATO, just because they really want to and have written that into their constitution - just so obviously is not the case.
Why? Because from a narratives perspective, this is the closest narrative expression to “russia identified its black sea harbors (40% of russian exports, power projection into the mediteranian, black sea regions and africa) as a strategic asset, and at least partly went to war because of those, also because they were under high risk of loosing all of that in 20 years time, when their power through military means concept would not work as well anymore because of demographic reasons.” A stance which Fiona Hills source at the Brookings institution:
Have held over time to explain what they have witnessed, and as a narrative, had impacted their decision process at the time.
Granted, Merkel without being burdened by the majority of ukrainians being for NATO membership - but the others even in disregard of that nuance.
So out of every potential narrative (including Putin wants to be a Tsar and reconquer Poland, and the Baltic States, not just Moldowa and Georgia) out there that still is the closest one to a more complex narrativ including detail that doesnt resort to fortune telling. Or exaggeration. (Putin is taking parts of europe with 200.000, later 600.000 active soldiers, … (1.5 million german soldiers fought in Poland, someone ought to notice the subsequently needed two more reqruitement pushes, they just have to…))
So just because its “the russian talking point” you cant forbid people to think along the lines of that mental shortcut. Regardless of if Gorbachev said thats never been what he agreed on in those negotiations over the unity of Germany.
- Its a war with the west - is currently, as we speak, picked up by western propaganda, as the next war narrative, to counter the german peoples reluctance of “causing” or sleepwalking into world war 3. Because - and now everyone repeat the ZDF narrative with me - we already are in a war with russia. Just a hybrid one. Which we cant fight, because we wouldnt know how to and which we need a strong NATO for to fight for us.
Societal impact: No one fucking believes it.
At least not right now, when the chances for a frozen conflict are as high as never before.
- Russia did it because of the Nazis was never believed haha -
It was more than to be expected, that russia would use this narrative again. As it became obvious, that Ukraine didnt exactly wanted to be rescued, that narrative went out of the window, as the panel correctly states.
Societal impact: None in the west
- There were Biolabs
Horray, give your self a payment increase for figuring that one out as a russian propaganda narrative.
Societal impact: None in the west
- No one should listen to Mearsheimer, because Fiona “we all need to invent and tell narratives, so the russian narratives dont get traction” - quote - this video:
should be listened to instead, because she told us, she is creating those wonderful counternarratives, that are needed for a society in war?
Societal impact: Oh none, in the short term, it just drives the folks insane, that know that thats happening. Because you constantly tell people, if they dont believe in what Fiona says - then you are disseminating russian propaganda. Over time, this is a disaster in the making. Loss of trust, basically.
Oh, and why do I mention, that I have wasted one hour here?
Because all of that is low effort.
The thought of some idiots that claim, that their job is to detect Russian disinformation.
I mean this video released 8 days ago as part of the Woodrow Wilson Center debate track.
For this:
- Not one step eastward didnt exist
Mearsheimer was canceled by the Hoover institution in week two of the full scale war.
So what the fuck, if you pardon my french, did your entire field do for the past two years, and four months?
Tell the public, that counter narratives are so important, because russia is a revisionist, nay neocolonial [shit the global south isnt buying this], nay imperialistic power?
Welcome to the world of countering russian disinformation.
Where countering the narratives within the german society almost creates more problems than it solves.
Aber Hauptsache, man kanns heute studieren und hat dann einen Karrierepfad vor sich, sag ich immer. Gut, und wenn in dem Studienzweig zwei Jahre und vier Monate nichts weitergeht - während eines laufenden Kriegs, dann, ehm -- dann ehm, erzählen wir uns einfach die tollen Counternarrative die wir uns im Monat eins nach dem Krieg überlegt haben!
Pfiew! Gottseidank hat der Russe bis jetzt nicht reagiert, neuere hätte nämlich ein gesamtes Panel im Woodrow Wilson Center vor 8 Tagen nicht entdeckt…
Dieser Russe schon wieder, immer gefinkelt wie ein Fuchs, bleibt der einfach bei seinen Narrativen, die wir bereits vor zwei Jahren und vier Monaten entkräftet haben! Der weiss halt noch, dass Repetition so wichtig ist, der Russe! [Or your entire scientific field is shit.]
edit: At 1:06:50, so 3 minutes and 40 seconds before the end of the video, the main “here is the structure of it” proponent of the panel starts her “I’m worried that the world is very confusing, I’m worried about people thinking, is there a truth, is there any truth out there, can we believe anything that is out there that quesiton is very […] If you dont believe that there is any truth out there, your entire world view, just - it gives up.” spiel. Just imagine getting that story told by another american, whos never left their country, in their lives (might be true, might be not) and you conceptually get what I’m seeing here. Give us SIMPLE, old Voice of America lady! The audience screams silently.
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