Die Munition geht aus, die Munition geht aus, die Munition geht aus

24. Februar 2024

die Muni­ti­on geht aus die Muni­ti­on geht aus, die Muni­ti­on geht aus, die Muni­ti­on geht aus!

Hätt gar­nicht mit­be­kom­men, dass die Ukrai­ne aktu­ell wei­te­re Angriffs­ope­ra­tio­nen fährt. Bei zehn­fa­chem Impact auf Munition.

Ja nein, aber Euro­pa ist ja soooooooooooooo wan­kel­mü­tig. Sooooooooooooooo wan­kel­mü­tig ist Euro­pa, da kann die Ukrai­ne ja gar­nicht planen…

Und daher geht ihr gera­de jetzt wo sie 6-10x weni­ger Muni­ti­on brau­chen dürf­te als in der Angriffs­pha­se - NATÜRLICH die Muni­ti­on aus.

Die NZZ hat das mal zusam­men­ge­fasst:

Bildschirmfoto 2024 02 24 um 08 27 43

Bildschirmfoto 2024 02 24 um 08 28 02

Bildschirmfoto 2024 02 24 um 08 28 31

Bildschirmfoto 2024 02 24 um 08 29 07

Gut, damit haben wir im gesam­ten deutsch­spra­chi­gen Raum ja noch ein wesent­li­ches Medi­um das Jour­na­lis­mus betreibt.

Was machen die ande­ren 35?

Die Muni­ti­on geht aus!

Und um fair zu blei­ben, bei der Artil­le­rie­mu­ni­ti­on ist es eine shor­ta­ge bei den Pro­pel­lent char­ges, dh den Che­mi­ka­li­en um die Din­ger in die Luft zu bekom­men. Schwer was am frei­en Markt zu kau­fen, was am frei­en Markt nicht mehr exis­tiert, weil wir damit seit zwei Jah­ren lus­ti­ge Feu­er­werks­show, mit 700.000 Toten und Ver­letz­ten spielen.

Die Muni­ti­on geht aus!

Gera­de jetzt wo wir uns ver­tei­di­gen müssen!

Die Muni­ti­on geht aus!

FUCKING

PROFESSIONAL

(spon­so­red)

LIARS.

Dan­ke an die NZZ.

Take their make up away

23. Februar 2024

take their “some­thing, some­thing of digni­ty” away, take their lies away that Minsk 2 was “ille­gal, becau­se bro­ke­red under for­ce”, take their US spon­sors away egging on the crowd, (hol­ler if you are a US sena­tor on a ukrai­ne trip) - and they’­ve got nothing.

But in the court of public opi­ni­on and media mani­pu­la­ti­on, tho­se are the only things that count.

What nice blond hair. What per­fect make­up. What hono­r­able peop­le, pro­tes­ting for digni­ty. What total­ly fair polls in cur­rent day Ukrai­ne - that always go out in their favor, becau­se the east of the coun­try sim­ply isn’t coun­ted anymore…

Makes me sick for a week.

May­be bad deba­ters, but to have two of tho­se fuck­ing idi­ots think, that they can coast in on loa­ded pro­pa­gan­da terms, and their fuck­ing strea­ked blond hair.

Makes me sick.

Worked like a tre­at on ger­man tele­vi­si­on though.

FUCKING

PROFESSIONAL

(spon­so­red)

LIARS.

edit: Hey, you­tube comments for once got it right:

Bildschirmfoto 2024 02 24 um 07 58 49

So naturally I asked google what grievance narrative Victoria Nuland could have meant

23. Februar 2024

I inclu­ded a 10 days mar­gin befo­re the actu­al attack on the 24th of febru­a­ry, becau­se by then appar­ent­ly ever­yo­ne important in the US secu­ri­ty sce­ne alrea­dy knew the attack was underway - 

Search results for

russia’s grie­van­ce nar­ra­ti­ve before:2022-02-14

Befo­re image

search results for

russia’s grie­van­ce nar­ra­ti­ve after:2022-02-14

After image

So, it turns out, that the results are STARKLY different.

Which is a good indi­ca­tor, that Vic­to­ria Nuland pro­bab­ly meant the grie­van­ce nar­ra­ti­ve, that rus­sia came up with - after the attack. Or the collec­ti­ve west, thats not so clear.

Someo­ne ask a web based ngram data­set for web news.

Also, it turns out this arti­cle on Febru­a­ry the 18h 2022 actual­ly war­ned ever­yo­ne in the collec­ti­ve West not to be duped by Putin’s Grie­ven­ces against Nato:

Don’t be Duped by Putin’s Grie­van­ces against NATO
FSI Stanford

Free­man Spo­g­li Insti­tu­te for Inter­na­tio­nal Studies
FSI Stanford

src: click

In the­re its alrea­dy per­so­na­li­zed, so “Putin’s grievances”

So, lets now head over to Lin­ked in for the Aut­hors cur­rent employer…

Yas­min Sam­rai - United Sta­tes | Pro­fes­sio­nal Profile

70+ Fol­lower
Yas­min Samrai.

Deploy­ment: Stra­te­gist at Palan­tir Tech­no­lo­gies. United States

src: click

Neat! Direct­ly from a Desk edi­tors job at the Stand­ford Dai­ly?

Someo­ne check if thats the same per­son, I didnt. Age bra­cket fits.

Now, lets look at the actu­al argu­ment in the arti­cle, right?!

The idea that the West is goa­ding Rus­sia into a war with Ukrai­ne is not only popu­lar in Rus­sia, whe­re 50% of the popu­la­ti­on belie­ves the West is respon­si­ble for rising ten­si­ons, but also here in the United Sta­tes. The New York Times ran a front-page sto­ry with the head­line “Is Biden’s Stra­te­gy with Putin Working, or Goa­ding Moscow to War?” Har­vard pro­fes­sor Ste­phen Walt bla­med the mili­ta­ry buil­dup at the Ukrai­ni­an bor­der on the “hub­ris, wish­ful thin­king, and libe­ra­lism” of the U.S. and its Euro­pean allies. Mean­while, Repu­bli­cans drop­ped their his­to­ric hard line on Rus­sia and accu­sed Pre­si­dent Joe Biden of fomen­ting the cri­sis; Sena­tor Josh Haw­ley even cal­led for aban­do­ning America’s long­stan­ding com­mit­ment to Ukrai­ni­an mem­bers­hip in NATO. Taking the argu­ment several steps fur­ther, Fox News host Tucker Carl­son descri­bed the brewing con­flict as a “manu­fac­tu­red cri­sis” devi­sed by “rest­less, power-hungry neo­cons in Washing­ton” and mused, “Why is it dis­loy­al to side with Rus­sia but loy­al to side with Ukraine?”

It is deeply con­cer­ning that influ­en­ti­al voices in the West are faul­ting the U.S. for the esca­la­ti­on of ten­si­ons in Ukrai­ne. The­se com­men­ta­tors igno­re Russia’s agen­cy in fomen­ting the cri­sis and lend credence to Putin’s jus­ti­fi­ca­ti­on for war. Putin — it is worth remem­be­ring — anne­xed Cri­mea in 2014 and backed a vio­lent rebel­li­on in the Don­bas regi­on that has led to over 13,000 deaths. Putin (not Biden) has amas­sed over 100,000 tro­ops on the Ukrai­ni­an bor­der and drawn up ela­bo­ra­te plans to fab­ri­ca­te a Ukrai­ni­an attack on Rus­sia. The­se are incon­ve­ni­ent truths for Krem­lin lea­ders who pre­fer to per­pe­tua­te the myth of Rus­si­an innocence.

The grie­van­ce nar­ra­ti­ve is a trap and not to be used in the west, like wes­tern scho­l­ars regu­lar­ly did befo­re Febru­a­ry the 18th 2022, because -

- It would lend credence to Putin’s jus­ti­fi­ca­ti­on for war
- it is worth remem­be­ring — [Rus­sia] anne­xed Cri­mea in 2014 and backed a vio­lent rebel­li­on in the Don­bas regi­on that has led to over 13,000 deaths.
- Putin (not Biden) has amas­sed over 100,000 tro­ops on the Ukrai­ni­an bor­der and drawn up ela­bo­ra­te plans to fab­ri­ca­te a Ukrai­ni­an attack on Russia.

So natu­ral­ly, wes­tern scho­l­ars should not use that argu­ment anymore.

And tho­se who did, sub­se­quent­ly lost their jobs as the most publis­hed aut­hors on Pro­ject Syn­di­ca­te.

Gre­at.

So - this cant be used as an argu­ment any­mo­re, becau­se it would help Putin, becau­se the reta­king of Cri­mea wasnt an act of grie­van­ce [WHAT?], and becau­se it was Putin not Biden, who amas­sed 100.000 tro­ops at the bor­der - and drew up ela­bo­ra­ted plans of the Ukrai­ne having atta­cked Rus­sia - which both arent direct­ly rela­ted to rus­si­as grie­van­ce nar­ra­ti­ve against the collec­ti­ve west.

Any more obvious rea­sons we shouldnt use the nar­ra­ti­ve any­mo­re? You know like wes­tern scho­lors did even a week befo­re this arti­cle was published?

Sure:

The idea that the West is goa­ding Rus­sia into a war with Ukrai­ne is not only popu­lar in Rus­sia, whe­re 50% of the popu­la­ti­on belie­ves the West is respon­si­ble for rising ten­si­ons, but also here in the United States.

Atten­ti­on, this is also popu­lar in Rus­sia! Could be used as a war nar­ra­ti­ve, bet­ter call it fake from now on. (Feb 18, 2022)

And thanks for that Palan­tir job offer!

Nuland was very talkative today

22. Februar 2024

[News­flash: The offi­cial CSIS tran­script of the Nuland talk is mis­sing this question/interaction. Isnt that swell?]

Ok, so first - I’ve found the chief edi­tor of the aus­tri­an news­pa­per “Der Stan­dard”. Its Vic­to­ria Nuland. Took a while, but the­re is total con­gru­en­cy in all rele­vant positions.

Except for one.

Mode­ra­tor: “The­re is often being con­cer­ned, by the Ukrai­ni­ans and others that rus­sia would want to nego­tia­te over Ukrai­nes head with the United Sta­tes, I guess I’d ask you if you or the US government had got­ten any indi­ca­ti­ons of the Rus­si­ans try­ing to enga­ge with the United Sta­tes in back­chan­nel nego­tia­ti­ons over Ukraine.”

Nuland: “Thats always the rus­si­an way, you know. Ever­ything about Ukrai­ne without Ukrai­ne. You know I faced the same, when I was in UR [?] nego­tia­ting with Putins guys in 15 and 16, you know, they think that this is about a much lar­ger chess board, and this is the nar­ra­ti­ve of grea­van­ce, that Putin has woven to try to jus­ti­fy, what he has done, that this is about euro­pean secu­ri­ty, that this is about NATO, which after all is a defen­si­ve alli­an­ce, and never inten­ded to come any­whe­re near rus­sia unless it was atta­cked, you know… He will always try that. But we are reso­lu­te, and Ukrai­ni­ans are reso­lu­te, that they lead in any dis­cus­sions of this, and not­hing about Ukrai­ne, without Ukraine.” 

Yeah… So first thank you for the con­fir­ma­ti­on that Putin is not a cra­zed histo­ry buff making impromp­tu snap decisi­ons based on his­to­ri­cal ide­as and his mood. Its almost like thats just a pro­pa­gan­da nar­ra­ti­ve no one rele­vant real­ly belie­ves in - 

See also:

Han­no Pev­kur (Minis­ter of Defence of the Repu­blic of Esto­nia), 31. 05.2023, Glob­sec Conference:

What Rus­sia wants to achie­ve, the poli­ti­cal goals, let’s be honest - and they, the­se poli­ti­cal goals of Rus­sia have never chan­ged, they want to have a grey-zone bet­ween Rus­sia and NATO, they want to have a con­trol over this grey-zone and this is what they want to achie­ve. And they want to have some “secu­ri­ty gua­ran­tees” for them­sel­ves, sor­ry this is not the Free World and this is what Ukrai­ne is figh­t­ing for at the moment, that they are figh­t­ing for - the Free World and rule-based world and this is why we sup­port Ukrai­ne so this is obvious and then this is why we can never accept this approach of Rus­sia, loo­king at inter­na­tio­nal law.”

src: click (bei 43:50 in)

- so thats ahm… good to know… Thank you for con­fir­ming that, first and foremost.

About that “grea­van­ce” nar­ra­ti­ve Putin was buil­ding up to “rec­ti­fy all of this”, what time­frame are we tal­king here? Becau­se when the Rus­si­ans enga­ged the US with their “euro­pean secu­ri­ty infra­st­ruc­tu­re con­cer­nes” and wan­ted to hold talks (Decem­ber 2021) - the­re was no grie­van­ce nar­ra­ti­ve in play yet - ever­yo­ne was qui­te poli­te and all around ela­ted that the mee­ting could final­ly take place, and when Rus­sia brought for­ward simi­lar con­cerns in wri­ting with NATO after­wards (and Stol­ten­berg even repeated that state­ment mon­ths later) - the­re still was this public aura of ten­ta­ti­ve hope that the­re wouldnt be any war, which actual­ly most of the ana­lysts at the time agreed on, as the majo­ri­ty of them belie­ved this may­be would esca­la­te to a more acti­ve con­flict in the Don­bas, but not­hing bey­ond that - and this was just both sides ratt­ling the chains, and then the US flat out igno­red any and all of rus­si­as secu­ri­ty con­cer­nes (becau­se they were “far too exces­si­ve” (the initi­al deman­ds were, not the red lines, accord­ing to Tho­mas Gra­ham of the CFR), or so the public nar­ra­ti­ve goes) - so at which point did the “grea­van­ce” nar­ra­ti­ve “Putin expert­ly wea­ved” kick in Miss Nuland if you dont mind me asking?

At the point whe­re they dar­ed to talk about secu­ri­ty con­cerns they had in the regi­on? Over Ukrai­nes head? Or at the point whe­re the Atlan­tic Coun­cil publis­hed the “the best thing rus­sia could do is to move out of Ukrai­ne ent­i­re­ly, and then may­be we could start nor­ma­li­zing rela­ti­ons­hips again” mocke­ry of a state­ment in Novem­ber of 2021?

Was war eigent­lich US und Nato Posi­ti­on im Novem­ber 2021

About that grie­van­ce nar­ra­ti­ve the rus­si­ans used to rec­ti­fy that war intern­al­ly, Miss Nuland… When exact­ly did you noti­ce it beco­m­ing a grea­van­ce narrative?

Might be important for euro­pean histo­ry and the his­to­ri­cal public record in terms of the actu­al sequence of events.

After you clo­sed down all efforts and blo­cked all nego­tia­ti­ons “over the heads of the Ukrai­ne”? Or before?

Oh and by the way, thank you for con­fir­ming, that Rus­sia actual­ly tried to nego­tia­te with the US on a regio­nal peace, but that the US denied all efforts that would have gone over Ukrai­nes head… And that that may actual­ly be the source of the “the Ukrai­ne has to deci­de for its­elf” rhe­to­ri­cal figu­re in the wes­tern narrative.

I havent heard that tal­ked about/represented even in eng­lish spea­king media before…

Huh…

Lets just end with: Nuland should give more interviews.

That self assu­red “I’m not that smart, but want to show gre­at initia­ti­ve and poi­se” flair and bra­va­do that comes across in all ans­wers, actual­ly is very hel­pful in coaxing out more of the actu­al infor­ma­ti­on on what took place, than you might think. Actual­ly - this time around you were excep­tio­nal­ly hel­pful, Miss Nuland.

Now lets work on a way to also make this the public stance of Der Stan­dard, to have that plea­sant total con­gru­en­cy in all rele­vant posi­ti­ons with aus­tri­an news media again. 🙂

Lis­ten up Stan­dard, you’­ve heard it from Vic­to­ria here - Rus­sia tried to nego­tia­te a regio­nal peace, more than once, with the US direct­ly - but the US didnt want to betray Ukrai­ne so… They stop­ped their mili­ta­ry aid packages.

Got that? Good, so now repeat after me: The rus­si­ans actual­ly tried to get a regio­nal peace sett­le­ment with the US several times, using backchannels.

Now you alo­ne, ger­man spea­king news media, its actual­ly fun.

Repeat after Vic­to­ria Nuland.

edit: Oh, the buz­z­word of this mon­ths con­fe­rence was “Ukrai­ne ven­tu­ring into more asy­m­etric war­fa­re”, in a sen­se at least.

Ok, fassen wir mal zusammen

22. Februar 2024

Die Ukrai­ne kann im nächs­ten Jahr wenig tun als zu ver­tei­di­gen, rekru­tie­ren, aus­zu­bil­den und ihre Ver­lus­te gering hal­ten. Wobei Ver­tei­di­gen etwas schwie­ri­ger sein dürf­te als auf der rus­si­schen Sei­te im Herbst, da die neur­al­gi­schen Punk­te für einen Durch­bruch der Front­li­ni­en anti­zi­pier­bar waren.

Also - was ist an der Stel­le das deut­sche Messaging?

- Tau­rus könn­te das rus­si­sche Sys­tem ins Wan­ken brin­gen. Nein. Mit Tau­rus gezielt Zie­le zu ver­nich­ten macht öko­no­misch nur Sinn, wenn wir von hoch­prä­zi­sen Radar­an­la­gen, Haupt­ver­sor­gungs­rou­ten und Kom­man­do­ein­rich­tun­gen spre­chen. Alles in der Defen­si­ve jetzt nicht wirk­lich bedeu­tend. Um Ver­sor­gungs­kno­ten zu zer­stö­ren hat die Ukrai­ne in der Ver­gan­gen­heit Prä­zi­si­ons­ar­til­le­rie genutzt, als das noch funk­tio­niert hat (Russ­land hat dann ein brei­te­res Netz gezo­gen). Und selbst das war in spä­te­ren Kriegs­pha­sen nicht sehr öko­no­misch. Tau­rus wür­de für high value Tar­gets Sinn machen, die in der ver­tei­di­gen­den Posi­ti­on - mei­nem Kennt­nis­stand nach nicht wirk­lich offen­sicht­lich sind. (Muni­ti­ons­la­ger auf der Krim, Umschlag­plät­ze für Rüs­tung auf der Krim, Mili­tär­flug­hä­fen in Russ­land…) Vor­teil Tau­rus: Sehr schwer dage­gen verteidigbar.

- His­to­ri­ke­rin: Ich habe den Ein­druck dass es jetzt für Russ­land berg­ab­geht und Putin fällt Im nächs­ten Jahr?! War­um? Noch­mal - öko­no­misch gilt der Leit­satz, Russ­land hält noch 6 Jah­re Kriegs­wirt­schaft durch, es sei denn es pas­siert etwas unerwartetes.

- die Ukrai­ne muss ent­schei­den, was sie tun möch­te. Ok. Droh­nen noch und nöcher. Den Vor­marsch der Rus­sen stop­pen. Wird schwie­ri­ger als anders rum. Ver­braucht aber uu. weni­ger Sol­da­ten, da den Stel­len­wert von Droh­nen und Minen jetzt alle erkannt haben. Kann die Zeit für Auf­rüs­tung und Aus­bil­dung nut­zen. Will aber nicht so vie­le Leu­te rekru­tie­ren, zumin­dest nicht am Anfang, da schlech­te PR Reso­nanz, hat die Mili­tär­füh­rung auf “macht jetzt alles was der Ein­satz­pla­ner vor­gibt” gewech­selt, möch­te aber im Wes­ten des Lan­des bereits wie­der “Wider­auf­bau und Nor­ma­li­tät” simu­lie­ren. Irgend­wie geht ihr trotz­dem die Bevöl­ke­rung aus, aber in sechs Jah­ren kom­men sicher noch alle geflo­he­nen Müt­ter mit Kin­dern zurück? Wenig wahr­schein­lich, also Sieg 2026 als Hauptperspektive.

Bedeu­tet wie­der­rum, aktu­ell gibts ein Jahr nichts zu tun als Durch­hal­te Paro­len zu streu­en, also was macht das deut­sche Expertenwesen?

Mit Russ­land gehts bald zu Ende, Tau­rus könn­ten ein Gam­ch­an­ger sein, die Ukrai­ne jagt jetzt Kol­la­bo­ra­teu­re, Ukrai­ne und ihre Nato Bei­tritts­op­ti­on nach dem Krieg, Selen­skyj sitzt fest im Sat­tel, wann greift Putin den Wes­ten an? Zün­det Putin die Welt­al­l­atom­bom­be? Wie die Rus­sen des Krie­ges über­drüs­sig wer­den. (Aktu­ell drei Erfolgs­mel­dun­gen, und Prä­si­den­ten­wah­len in weni­ger als vier Wochen, Nawal­nyj tot, Oppo­si­ti­on im Land nicht mehr vor­han­den, …) Aber gleich­zei­tig auch: Nur der Sieg der Ukrai­ne kann Putin jetzt noch von der Regie­rungs­spit­ze verdrängen!

Also wenn das der Start des Jah­res ist in dem die Ukrai­ne meist in der ver­tei­di­gen­den Rol­le ist, wird der Rest von 2024 recht heiter…

As in - nicht eines der aktu­el­len Nar­ra­ti­ve passt dazu…

Aber solan­ge man Putin sagen und damit Gesprä­che been­den kann - weil Putin…

Läuft.

Gut, dass nie­mand dar­auf geach­tet hat, dass der Krieg mit den sel­ben Paro­len bereits ins drit­te Jahr geht. Wir glau­ben immer noch an das sel­be, oder? Die Ukrai­ne ent­schei­det alles selbst. Das muss so sein, über ande­re Lösun­gen nach­zu­den­ken ist Hoch­ver­rat, … (Sie­he Gisi im Spie­gel­in­ter­view)

edit: Es gibt aber natür­lich auch wie­der gute Nachrichten:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaZmKCTYYl8 (Gut das ist jetzt zwei Wochen alt… Ich hab mir gedacht es passt.. )