Short heads up from Davos

25. Mai 2022

We have to be a moral power. We have to stop com­pro­mi­sing. We have to under­stand this as a chan­ce. We have to let us be gui­ded by values. We have to be strong. We have to be force­ful and not let our­sel­ves be divi­ded. With an hono­r­able men­ti­on for the repre­sen­ta­ti­ve of the euro­pean com­mis­si­on making a pledge, that she doesnt want to hear the word appease­ment anymore.

ECB brings in the immense power of pen­sionfunds that still could be lever­aged to a much grea­ter extent. And sees the usu­al dan­gers of eco­no­mies that are too expo­sed to inter­na­tio­nal trade.

So lets go through this. Moral power means, lets go back to a world whe­re we have eco­no­mic blocks. And not ask the Khash­og­gi ques­ti­on, becau­se at least tho­se issu­es dont touch our moral sphe­re, by vir­tue of being far enough away from our bor­ders. It also means to look more clo­se­ly into the cur­rent Xin­jiang leaks, becau­se our new public MO is that of being moral, strong and united. We have to stop com­pro­mi­sing means, remo­val of vetos or the unani­mi­ty princi­pal, in mat­ters of EU for­eign and secu­ri­ty poli­cy. We have to let us be gui­ded by values means -- some­thing, some­thing legal tra­di­ti­on. We have to be strong means, to use this moment to estab­lish the noti­on of beco­m­ing an inter­na­tio­nal mili­ta­ry power as well (hel­ping the Nato 80% but also being able to con­duct our own inter­ven­ti­ons, and secu­ring our own bor­ders), becau­se of the poten­ti­al uphea­vals we cant dodge any­mo­re as a result of the cur­rent war, thats pret­ty much a given, we have to be force­ful and not let our­sel­ves be divi­ded is the new man­tra for my genera­ti­on. Becau­se you have to see this as a chan­ce, right? No appease­ment is the new posi­ti­on of the euro­pean com­mis­si­on, becau­se if you’d go the appease­ment rou­te, all the other nice catch­phra­ses wouldnt work. And game theo­ry is for pussies.

(Which btw. is also what the prime minis­ter of slo­va­kia seems to have lear­ned almost exclu­si­ve­ly from the cur­rent cri­sis - he is very into this idea. To the point, whe­re he pushes it to beco­me the second to last point of rhe­to­ri­cal­ly con­struc­ted applau­se lines.)

The ECB is now at the point, were it wants to leverage pen­si­on funds more force­ful­ly and also is into redu­cing expo­sure to inter­na­tio­nal tra­de, becau­se of incre­a­sed risk of insta­bi­li­ty (cli­ma­te chan­ge, food secu­ri­ty), becau­se of the US not caring about secu­ring tra­de rou­tes for free any­mo­re, and becau­se of ever­yo­nes favo­ri­te term, resi­li­en­ce. So essen­ti­al­ly the aspects that cli­ma­te acti­vism was allo­wed to pro­mo­te in Davos in the past years.

The­re is also ano­t­her trend you can gage from the peop­le that have been put on the panel, and that is - make nort­hern euro­pean coun­tries, and the coun­tries in the east expo­sed to rus­sia, mat­ter more wit­hin the euro­pean uni­on to keep ger­man and french inte­rests in check. “Do you belie­ve that ger­ma­ny will take the role, to bind all tho­se inte­rests tog­e­ther to make a cohe­si­ve euro­pean uni­on” - was one of the rhe­to­ri­cal ques­ti­ons asked, to which the ans­wer of cour­se was “we have to - at least when it comes to the defen­se union”.

(Hig­her depen­den­cy in terms of ener­gy pro­du­ced by nort­hern euro­pean sta­tes, hig­her depen­den­cy in terms of the secu­ri­ty infra­st­ruc­tu­re pro­vi­ded by nort­hern sta­tes, more per­ma­nent NATO tro­ops (plan­ned) in the eas­tern euro­pean sta­tes, rai­sing their pro­fi­le wit­hin the NATO alli­an­ce, as well as the EU…)

And then end on an inspi­ra­tio­nal “we know this is not easy, we know we cant take demo­cra­cy for gran­ted, so lets do this”!

Phoe­nix also has com­men­ta­ry, if you want to con­su­me this with more sug­ar­coa­ting and ambi­gui­ty. (ger­man)

Schlüs­sel­fra­ge “was von dem was Euro­pa will - hat Scholz begriffen”?


edit: Kris­ta­li­na Geor­gi­e­wa (IMF direc­tor) doesnt par­ti­cu­lar­ly like the “new iron curtain trend” - too bad ever­yo­ne else does.

Cli­ma­te risks, food secu­ri­ty issu­es, and the US not caring about secu­ring tra­de rou­tes all over the world, par­ti­cu­lar­ly, is a hell of a combination.

edit2: Hear­say com­ment that fran­ce and ger­ma­ny are pri­va­te­ly pro­mo­ting “we should not be say­ing that the Ukrai­ni­ans can win this” stance in Davos (at 8:48 in).

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