harlekin.me

Im Fal­le eines tak­ti­schen Atom­waf­fen­ein­satz, hat die US Regie­rung unter Biden Russ­land gedroht deren gesam­te Kampf­flug­zeug Flot­te aus­zu­ra­die­ren (und deren Navy, und…).

Jetzt hat der SBU die­sen Sonn­tag mal eben 34% der Kapa­zi­tät in einer kon­zer­tier­ten Akti­on ausgeschaltet

src: click

Ohne US Untertstüt­zung… (Über wel­che Sat­teli­ten lief die Navi­ga­ti­on? Topo­gra­fie Tech haben sie ja wohl nicht, es sei denn jemand hät­te ihnen die Daten..))

Kann man von denen viel­leicht auch als soma­li­scher Pirat ler­nen…? Das wär die Schlüs­sel­qua­li­fi­ka­ti­on für halb Mit­tel­ame­ri­ka, glaub ich…

edit: Oder warens doch nur 34% auf aus­ge­wähl­ten Flug­hä­fen? Ver­damm­te Medienkompetenzübung.

src: click

Mur­mansk?

edit:

Ana­ly­sis: Why has Rus­sia con­cen­tra­ted one-third of its stra­te­gic bom­bers at Olenya Air Base? [Mur­mansk]

src: click

Sta­tio­ned the­re as per OSINT: 12 Tu-95MS, 13 Tu-22M3, a Tu-160 stra­te­gic bom­ber and two An-12 mili­ta­ry trans­port aircraft.

What was hit at Bela­ya airbase

Accord­ing to OSINT ana­lyst Dnipro, who cross-referenced dro­ne foo­ta­ge with air­craft posi­ti­ons on the air­field, two Tu-22M3s and one Tu-95MS were des­troy­ed at Bela­ya airfield.

[…]

What was hit at Olenya airbase

Foo­ta­ge publis­hed online, inclu­ding by jour­na­list Vita­liy Glagola, con­firms the dest­ruc­tion of at least three Tu-95MS bom­bers and one An-12BT trans­port aircraft.

src: click

Immens!

Iwa­no­vo > Sumy sind 790km Luftlinie.
Mur­mansk > Cher­ni­hiv knapp 2000km Luftlinie.
Bela­ya > Khar­kiv knapp 4500km Luftlinie.

Das ISW fällt bei der Medi­en­kom­pe­tenz­übung schon mal durch:

Ukrai­ne con­duc­ted a large-scale and simul­ta­ne­ous seri­es of dro­ne strikes against mul­ti­ple air bases in Rus­sia on June 1. Sources wit­hin Ukraine’s Secu­ri­ty Ser­vice (SBU) told various media out­lets that the SBU con­duc­ted widespread first-person view (FPV) dro­ne strikes that struck four air bases in Russia.[1] The SBU sources repor­ted that Ukrai­ni­an for­ces struck Bela­ya Air Base in Irkut­sk Oblast; Olenya Air Base in Mur­mansk Oblast; Dya­gi­le­vo Air Base in Rya­zan Oblast; and Iva­no­vo Air Base in Iva­no­vo Oblast. The SBU sources con­fir­med that Ukrai­ni­an dro­ne ope­ra­tors struck 41 Rus­si­an stra­te­gic bom­bers, inclu­ding A-50 long-range radar detec­tion air­craft and Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 stra­te­gic bom­bers – fixed-wing air­craft that Rus­sia uses to detect Ukrai­ni­an air defen­ses and launch crui­se mis­si­les against Ukrai­ne. The SBU repor­ted that the ope­ra­ti­on inflic­ted rough­ly $7 bil­li­on worth of dama­ge on Russia.[2] The SBU sources con­fir­med that the SBU faci­li­ta­ted dro­ne strikes by trans­por­ting the FPV dro­nes to Rus­sia at an unspe­ci­fied time; sto­ring the FPV dro­nes in trucks car­ry­ing car­go units with retrac­ta­ble roofs; par­king the trucks near the Rus­si­an air bases; and remo­te­ly ope­ning the truck roofs and laun­ching the FPVs. Ukrai­ni­an Pre­si­dent Volo­dym­yr Zelen­sky con­fir­med that the ope­ra­ti­on used 117 dro­nes and des­troy­ed 34 per­cent of Russia’s stra­te­gic crui­se mis­si­le car­ri­ers.[3]

src: click

OG Selen­skyj Tele­gram Message:

Thank you to the Secu­ri­ty Ser­vice, per­so­nal­ly to Gene­ral Mali­uk, and also to ever­yo­ne who was invol­ved in the ope­ra­ti­on. The ope­ra­ti­on was pre­pa­red for more than a year and a half. The plan­ning, orga­niz­a­ti­on, and every detail were per­fect­ly exe­cu­t­ed. It can be con­fi­dent­ly said that this is a tru­ly uni­que operation.

The most inte­res­ting part – and it can now be said publicly – is that the “office” for our ope­ra­ti­on on Rus­si­an ter­ri­to­ry was loca­ted direct­ly next to an FSB head­quar­ters in one of their regions.

A total of 117 dro­nes were used in the ope­ra­ti­on. A cor­re­spon­ding num­ber of dro­ne ope­ra­tors were invol­ved. 34 per­cent of the stra­te­gic crui­se mis­si­le car­ri­ers at their base air­fiel­ds were hit. Our peop­le ope­ra­ted in dif­fe­rent Rus­si­an regi­ons – across three time zones. And befo­re the ope­ra­ti­on, our peop­le were with­drawn from Rus­si­an ter­ri­to­ry; they are now safe – tho­se who hel­ped us.

Glo­ry to Ukraine!

src: click

If 40 Is true, thats a signi­fi­cant amount though…

edit: Ok, da stimmt was nicht…

In ser­vice Bom­ber Air­crafts of the Rus­si­an federation:

src: click

Wenn das “total amount” ist… sind das 123-34% = 81.18, ein Kom­ma 18 Flug­zeug ist nichts wert, also 123-81 = 42

Jetzt hat die Ukrai­ne aber “über 40 Flug­zeu­ge zer­stört”, davon min­des­tens eins das ein Trans­port­flug­zeug und kein Bom­ber war.

Und nur 6 durch Auf­nah­men bestä­tigt? Wobei du Foo­ta­ge von der Zer­stö­rung eines Trans­port­flug­zeu­ges (eines der 6) veröffentlichst?

Aber 34% der rus­si­schen Bom­ber­flot­te (= 42 Flug­zeu­ge) erledigst?

Hat hier schon wie­der wer Selen­skyj rech­nen lassen?

edit: Bely­ay­e­vo war erfolg­reich genug, dass sie sich die Ukrai­ne traut Satteliten-Footage zu veröffentlichen:

As of May 31, the Bely­ay­e­vo air­ba­se in the Irkut­sk regi­on housed:

39 Tu-22M3

30 MiG-31

7 Tu-160

6 Tu-95MS

2 Il-78M

6 An-26

2 An-12

Eye­wit­nes­ses pre­vious­ly repor­ted hea­ring over 10 explo­si­ons, and now satel­li­te images reve­al the sca­le of the destruction.

src: click

Today, Ukrai­ni­an intel­li­gence repor­ted­ly laun­ched 117 attack dro­nes from trucks that had been pla­ced near Rus­si­an air bases. I tas­ked several collects this morning via @umbraspace and my first images have alrea­dy star­ted pro­ces­sing. What a remar­kab­le suc­cess in a well-executed… pic.twitter.com/LzXulw8jnK

— Chris Big­gers (@CSBiggers) June 2, 2025

Dar­auf zu sehen - 3.5 Zer­stör­te Tu-95 und 4 Tu-22.

“More than 10 Explo­si­ons” also is interesting.

52 Bom­ber auf der Basis, aber nur etwa 12 Explo­sio­nen, die aber 34% der Bom­ber zer­stört haben?

Someo­ne fetch Selen­skyj a mathe­ma­ti­ci­an! Oder seine/n ehe­ma­li­gen Mathe­ma­tik Lehrer:in…

Con­fir­med total bom­bers des­troy­ed by now is 10.5 not “more than 40”. Just keep that in mind.

Also, if the repor­ted num­bers are cor­rect, Bely­ay­e­vo should have been the big­gest tar­get, hol­ding 43% of the acti­ve rus­si­an bom­ber fleet (52 pla­nes in total), but only “more than 10” explo­si­ons were heard by locals, and only 7.5 pla­nes (14,4%) were con­fir­med to be des­troy­ed the­re, by satel­li­te image evaluation…

Now, lets cor­re­la­te that with dro­nes used (117) - of which at least 43% should have been grou­ped to attack Bely­ay­e­vo (accord­ing to what was sta­tio­ned there).

Thats 51.

But only more than 10 explo­si­ons were heard (with 7.5 (lets make that a flat 8) pla­nes con­fir­med des­troy­ed by satel­li­te footage).

Lets extra­po­la­te from that to total num­ber of likely des­troy­ed bom­bers - 15.7% of 117 = 19

And may­be its even below that, becau­se Bely­ay­e­vo should have been the juci­est tar­get by far.

Now lets com­pa­re that to total num­bers of rus­si­an bombers:

19 of 123 in per­cent = 15.45%

With the eva­lua­ti­on of des­troy­ed tar­gets still ongo­ing. But only 2 satel­li­te images released so far, so that tells you at least something.

edit: Oh, fun. Rus­sia repor­ted, that the attacks were repul­sed in the three other bases with no air­craft struck:

edit: Gut, wie soll das der Stan­dard auch her­aus­fin­den, der hat wahr­lich wich­ti­ge­res zu tun.

Da muss man lei­der wei­ter ukrai­ni­sche Pro­pa­gan­da abschrei­ben und in die deutsch­spra­chi­ge Bevöl­ke­rung brin­gen, was will man tun…

edit:

Ja scheis­se, da kann ja doch wer rechnen!

Andriy Kova­len­ko, head of Ukraine’s Cen­ter for Coun­te­ring Dis­in­for­ma­ti­on, later sta­ted that at least 13 Rus­si­an air­craft were des­troy­ed, with even more dama­ged during the large-scale SBU spe­cial op.

src: click

Gut, das muss der Stan­dard natür­lich nicht berich­ten, der berich­tet lie­ber die Pro­pa­gan­da. Mehr clicks, sie müs­sen das verstehen.

edit: Ich weiß, was sie jetzt sagen, aber könn­ten wir dazu nicht den Ukrai­ne Pro­pa­gan­dis­ten der Chat­ham­house Pro Ukrai­ne Dele­ga­ti­ons Run­de, Gus­tav Gres­sel befragen?

src: click

Klar, wenn der in Deutsch­land wegen Par­tis­anship nicht mehr ein­ge­la­den wird, dann macht das Duy­gu Özkan für die öster­rei­chi­sche Presse!

Da will schon wie­der wer beför­dert werden…

edit: Ah, ZDF heu­te läd ihn jetzt auch wie­der. A bis­serl Zeit ver­strei­chen las­sen, dann wird der ja von selbst wie­der unabhängig…

Veröffentlicht by me am Sonntag, 01. Juni 2025 unter Allgemein, Media.