When your election system gaming works too well - Part 2

09. Juli 2024

Amb. Gérard Araud: In the French sys­tem par­ties are allo­wed to run for the second round, if the can­di­da­tes are -- real­ly allo­wed to run for the second round if they got more than 12.5% of the votes in the first round. Which means that usual­ly in our second rounds we have three at the very maxi­mum four can­di­da­tes, but we usual­ly three can­di­da­tes - and in the­se cases on the basis of the first round you we could expect hund­reds of what the French cal­led tri­an­gu­la­res which means real­ly a second rounds with three can­di­da­tes. A Cen­trist, a far right and a lef­tist and the basis of the - of the first round, the con­se­quence was clear­ly that the far right was going to win a lot of con­sti­tu­en­ci­es and what hap­pen­ed was real­ly, that a lot of actual­ly of can­di­da­tes - lef­tist or Cen­trist deci­ded to step out uh from the race and to call their voters to vote for eit­her the cen­trist or the lef­tist, to pre­vent uh the far right from win­ning the con­sti­tu­en­cy. And it was real­ly a a gene­ral move­ment, a very gene­ral move­ment so we went from with some­thing like near­ly 400 tri­an­gu­la­re second rounds to uh more or less only more or less 95-100 and in the­se cases of this 100 actual­ly uh the cen­trists and the lef­tists remai­ned in the race most of the time, becau­se the­re was no dan­ger of a vic­to­ry of the far right.


Fran­ce is divi­ded into 577 con­sti­tu­en­ci­es (cir­con­scrip­ti­ons) for the elec­tion of depu­ties to the lower legis­la­ti­ve House

src: click

Thats effec­ti­ve elec­tion fixing in 53% of french elec­tion districts.

Fuck me…

Oh, and btw here is how this works in the US. So - at the demo­cra­tic can­di­da­te selec­tion, you as the donor class buy out the elec­to­ral cam­pai­gns of four or five, les­ser via­ble can­di­da­tes, making sure they all cam­pai­gn like cra­zy (real per­cen­ta­ge of cam­pai­gn money inves­ted) in the most loo­ked at “indi­ca­tor” sta­te (Iowa), then if that doesnt grant you your actu­al hor­se in the race (the second most popu­lar can­di­da­te - you actual­ly prep­ped up as the one with a real chan­ce) to win the trend deci­ding Iowa - which to your chag­rin Ber­nie San­ders won, then - in the same week, while your other can­di­da­tes still have media pull (ever­y­bo­dy knows them due to the insa­ne amount of cam­pai­gn money spent around Iowa), but not much else is going on - you let three les­ser via­ble can­di­da­tes drop out from the race, coor­di­na­te­ly, in exact­ly the same week and pledge their sup­port to the desi­gna­ted can­di­da­te of the donor class.

Then you get pro­ba­bi­li­ty dis­tri­bu­ti­ons like these:

Bildschirmfoto 2024 07 09 um 08 11 19

src: click

Back, when I actual­ly rea­li­zed how that works - I actual­ly still ope­ned deba­te threads with the tit­le “So ame­ri­cas poli­tics are fixed by let­ting can­di­da­tes drop out at spe­ci­fic spots?”, but then was cal­med down by the noti­on, that in Euro­pe can­di­da­tes are actual­ly most­ly “desi­gna­ted” into their num­ber one posi­ti­on of their respec­ti­ve par­ties by a much less trans­pa­rent decisi­on pro­cess -- so I was wil­ling to let it slide.

Now, in 2024 - the actu­al frech elec­tion got “fixed” this way…


Again - com­pa­re and contrast:

Num­ber of votes in the 2024 french elections:
1st round > 2nd round

Natio­nal Ral­ly Alli­an­ce (RN): 33.3% > 37.1%
New Popu­lar Front (NFP): 28.6% > 26.3%
Esem­ble (ENS): 20.9% > 24.7%
Other: 10.6% > 5.6%
Les Répu­blic­cains (LR): 6.6% > 6.2%

src: click

So you know, that the public vote wont play out in your favor, so you start the elec­tion fixing process.

And that pro­cess is so effec­ti­ve, that the second place can­di­da­te (based on votes) now “wins” the elec­tion, and the first place can­di­da­te comes in third. Sim­ply becau­se you fixed 53% of voting districts, by let­ting the “unli­kely win­ners” drop out in a coor­di­na­ted fashion.

Lets look at this more clo­ses­ly why dont we. So this was the Pro­ject FiveThir­ty­Eight (FiveThir­ty­Eight, is an Ame­ri­can web­site that focu­sed on opi­ni­on poll ana­ly­sis, poli­tics, eco­no­mics, and sports blog­ging in the United States.[2] Foun­der Nate Sil­ver left in April 2023. On Sep­tem­ber 18, 2023, the ori­gi­nal web­site domain at fivethirtyeight.com was clo­sed, and web traf­fic beca­me redi­rec­ted to ABC News pages.[2]) “Chan­ces of win­ning a plu­ra­li­ty of pled­ged dele­ga­tes” fore­cast for the 2020 US pri­ma­ries, on the day mid febru­a­ry - short­ly after IOWA - when the three can­di­da­tes with less hope to attain the necessa­ry dele­ga­tes drop­ped out of the race in the same week - coor­di­na­te­ly - ALL OF THEM endor­sing Biden:

Bildschirmfoto 2024 07 09 um 08 15 29

This ladies and gen­tle­men is what you call elec­tion fixing.

Hinterlasse eine Antwort