Huh.
Here are some strange and interesting statements by one Dr. Sergei Alexandrowitsch Karaganow that make me almost understand the current US position for the first time…
followed by
The first one (Conference in 2017) reads like a madmans plan of divide and conquer where somehow russia becomes the most important decision maker in a global military alliance between the three major military superpowers (USA, China and Russia), then gradually being willing to also invite “India and Japan” into their “newly founded institutional circles”, with this coincidentally also becoming the most important decision structure in all of world affairs. The second one (conference in 2022) like a plan to overextend the US, while having about ten military conflicts shake out in the near term future.
If this was russias position in the geostrategic talks with the US in December of 2021, I - for the first time, unterstand the US position at those talks.
That said, the second video is full of strategic backpedaling and coping narratives - that make Karaganovs position sound like “made up on the fly to still somehow fit the situation”.
But a few motives register as familiar to me.
First and foremost Zeihans “Putin is an isolated madman, and they dont have better personal on hand, because they never developed their political class before the current attempt at a shakeout”, which strangely enough is mirrored by statements Karaganov makes on the second panel about, the war being the perfect time to create the new domestic political structures, because the russian society is focused behind a new nationalistic mindset, and the russian military established as the pathway into russias future ruling classes.
Which has to be the strangest “we can survive this as a nation” concept I’ve seen in political decision making in my lifetime.
But then at the same time, this also registers similar to the trope that the allrussian officiers assembly apparently hinted at (russia getting rid of part of its population and finding narratives of “coping and suffering over an extended period of time” for the rest of them, until this shakes out), see:
And at the same time I cant just outright say that all of this is nonsense, because the term “slow, slice by slice militarization of Ukraine” that Cliff Kupchan, Chairman of the Eurasia Group hints at, fits my internal map of the situation in Ukraine in the past like a glove. So…
Strategy in the first video is the dumbest divide and conquer attempt I’ve seen in my lifetime? Where russia thought, that Europe would crumble under the internal pressure of diverging interests, after some key event like the invasion of Ukraine, so now russia could play “strategic decider” in a newfound structure with the US, China, Russia, an overaged Japan, and Brics Champion India? Which reads like the perfect madmens assembly of how to divide and conquer the west to get hegemony into chinas hands quickly.
And the strategy in the second video might be interpreted as an “overextending the US” play with “multiple wars that will shake out over the next ten years” while still not seeing this as an east/west divide, but as a north/south powerstruggle, from russias perspective. With a bunch of coping narratives in there retaining how well everything in Ukraine went, everything considered (from a big picture view). Which is probably just the usual “let me keep my job please” adjustment the average political analyst is capable of making at any point in time…
But whats the strangest aspect in all of this, is that this makes the current US position seem like a logical reaction.
So set “overextending russia” into play on part of the US, then handing that over to Europe to maintain, while focusing on China as the real power rival, because of - I dont know - “all the wars that are yet to take place” that russia apparently hints at it wanting to “wait out” from its perspective. And that are powerstruggles between an imagined north/south divide, which coincidentally also coincides with the western “democracies vs. autocracies” narrative, which still is completely idiotic, taken purely at face value.
This truly feels like the morons timeline of the development of future powercenters, after the western decline has set in. (In terms of GDP, growth perspectives, and maintaining the key institutional powerstructures.)
Huh.
So - how serious do we take that Dr. Sergey Karaganov fellow, in terms of “spilling the beans”, that russia cant wait to become the deciding geopolitical military decider in a setup that was clearly meant to put into place a divide an conquer strategy to separate Europe from the US?
I mean how sure are we, that russia was just giddy to tell us that feverdream of “becoming important again” openly at a “Dialogue of Civilizations” conference in 2017?
Seems like I’ve got some catching up to do on that Karaganov fellow.
edit: Wikipedia hints at him being close to Lavrov with a source from 2022 being referenced, and Putin, while the second video above indicates that he has not direct access to Putin anymore, and apparently Lavrov also isnt part of the inner decision circle in russia anymore. The last part is hearsay I picked up in my reading somewhere, but no idea where… So, yeah…
One of his staples (“Eurasianism as ideology”) I can see potentially playing out currently, but isnt that just the Chinese political PR campaign in russia anyhow? 😉
On his role in the past, his Wikipedia states:
Karaganov, who is known as a close advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin, formulated many of the core ideas that led to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. One week earlier Karaganov explained that “the situation is so dire” that “war is inevitable”, as Russia could only achieve its goals by military means, since, unlike the United States, the dominant post-Cold War power, Russia had no political, cultural, ideological or economic benefits by which to bring other states under its influence.
Karaganov lamented that Russia’s neighbors generally saw the West as offering more attractive political and economic models, and Russia therefore had no choice but to gain their submission by force.[23]
src: click
Which is the equivalent of the “Putin was afraid of the economic development of Ukraine” narrative in the west, which simply looked at from an economic perspective, makes no sense - in a 30 years timeframe.
While this:
Regarding Ukraine, Karaganov claimed that it was necessary to subdue it in order to prevent the further expansion of NATO. As justification for an unprovoked invasion, Karaganov suggested that Ukraine was not a viable state anyway, and “most likely, the country will slowly disintegrate,” or, alternatively, it will be broken up into smaller parts, and “something may go to Russia, something to Hungary, something to Poland, and something may remain a formally independent Ukrainian state.”[23] However, he has said that “occupying” Ukraine is “the worst-case scenario”.[24]
reads like whats going on today.
edit: Auf der anderen Seite, hier eine einfachere Herleitung, warum die US sich aus der Ukraine zurückziehen zu wollen scheinen. 🙂
«Dieser Anstieg um 3 Prozentpunkte ist sehr gefährlich»: Blackrock-Chef Larry Fink sorgt sich um die hohe Verschuldung des amerikanischen Staates
Der Chef des weltgrössten Vermögensverwalters sieht in den gestiegenen Zinskosten ein Problem für die Vereinigten Staaten. Aber er sieht sein Unternehmen auch als Teil der Lösung.
src: click
edit: Es gibt aber natürlich auch wieder gute Nachrichten. Der Standard hat soeben herausgefunden, dass folgendes berichtenswert ist:
RUSSLAND/UKRAINE
Kremlsprecher Peskow: Globaler Ukraine-Friedensgipfel ohne Russland “absurd”
src: click
Man braucht ja den Mob der die Position dass das tatsächlich absurd ist in Grund und Boden schreien muss.
Und der Einzige Grund es nicht als absurd zu bezeichnen, sind diplomatische Versuche des Westens China und Indien gegen Russland zu “pivoten” - die im Ramen dieser “Globalen Ukraine-Friedensgipfel” angestoßen werden. Was man so hört.
Komisch eigentlich, dass die FIFA Selenskyj dafür nicht vor dem WM Finale Werbung machen hat lassen.
Absurd geradezu.
Diese verschlagenen Russen schon wieder, bis zur FIFA reicht ihr langer.. Pass.
