Ukrainisches Parlament akzeptiert Rücktritt von Generalstaatsanwalt Kostin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor_General_of_Ukraine
Das waren jetzt 3 seit dem Kriegsbeginn 2022, und die Kandidaten werden immer besser!
Wie ich das weiß? Nun, genau genommen habe ich keine Ahnung, aber wurde in unseren erstklassigen, deutschsprachigen Qualitätsmedien in der Ukraine nicht immer alles besser?
Eben.
Weder der Moderator in ZDFheute, noch die Sendeleitung, noch Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook -- wissen dass die Washington Post erstmalig keine “Werbung der Demokraten” abgelehnt hat, sondern eine Wahlempfehlung auszusprechen, was in Europa im übrigen Usus ist. (Also als journalistisches Outlet keine auszusprechen.)
Und dann verarscht Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook die Öffentlichkeit noch mit --
fivethirtyeight.com veröffentliche Umfragen des Demoskopen Nate Silver (w00t? fivethirtyeight is an aggregator, with weighing models from demoscopes like Nate Silver.)
oder “man solle sich bei NPR das polling anschauen” (w00t? NPR hat keine Tagesaktuelle Polling Berichterstattung. Die sind dazu leider nicht groß genug.)
Von Vorhersagemodellen hat ebenfalls keiner im Deutschen Qualitätsfernsehen gehört, also braucht man sie gleich garnicht zu erklären - dann solle mans sich bei der NYT informieren, weil die die Sienna College Umfragen macht, die ja wirklich sehr gut seien… (w00t?)
Hier mal wie die NYT ihr weighing macht, und welche Umfragen sie verwendet…
Methodology: How The Times Calculates 2024 Polling Averages
Gut, das müsste man auch erst mal gelesen haben, also kann man sich sicher sein, dass es niemand im ZDF geschweige denn Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook weiss…
Clüver Ashbrook hat auch was gegen Polls mit einer Sample-Size von “nur 1500” (w00t)? Warum will sie uns aber lieber nicht verraten, sie meint, die Fehlerwahrscheinlichkeit wäre viel kleiner, wenn die noch mehr pro Umfrage befragen würden… Tolle Idee du, ich glaube die Frau reavolutioniert mit ihren Impulseindrücken noch die Polling Industrie, also wenn die noch nie im Leben einen Sample size Calculator gesehen hätte.…
Confidence Level 95%, Margin of error 5%, Population Proportion 50% = Sample size needed of 600
Confidence Level 95%, Margin of error 2%, Population Proportion 50% = Sample size needed of 2400
Confidence Level 95%, Margin of error 1%, Population Proportion 50% = Sample size needed of 9600
Ich weiss es Frau Clüver Ashbrook! Damit wir die Margin of error auf das Maß reduzieren, das wir für diese Wahl in den Swingstates brauchen, machen wir einfach:
Confidence Level 95%, Margin of error 0.2%, Population Proportion 50% = Sample size needed of 240100
Jetzt bitte alle mal aufstehen und 10 Minuten Bellyclap für Frau Clüver Ashbrook!
Die Dame die im Vorbeigehen die US Polling Industrie revolutionieren wollte! Als es um eine US Präsidentschaftswahl ging.
Und zudem veröffentlicht das ZDF noch einen verfickten SCHMARN an was immer sie noch von Real Clear Politics, also der Sendung mit der Maus Variante der US Poling Webseiten ohne Quellenbeleg, unter dem nichtssagenden Titel “Stimmungsbild vor der Wahl” veröffentlichen. Das aber noch die ganze restliche Woche lang in der ZDF ÄPP!
Warum ist es ideotisch das Stimmungsbild vor der Wahl zu veröffentlichen? Ehm…
Weil es nicht abfragt, wen die Leute wählen würden?
Ich müsste gehirngeschädigt sein, würde ich solchen Medien “vertrauen”.
Apropos Vertrauen.…
Gallup:
src: click
Americans Trust in Mass Media (TV, Radio, Newspapers) in 2024:
36% No trust at all
33% Not very much trust
31% Great/Fair amount of trust
Warum das so ist, können wir uns von den Deutschsprachigen Medien aber wieder überhaupt nicht erklären, weil wir haben ja noch unsere Nachrichtensprecher mit hohen Sympathiewerten…
edit: Der Standard hats heute auch mal wieder mit einem Klugscheißer Plagiat probiert - und hat einen seiner Redakteure folgende Kolumne schreiben lassen:
Welchen Fehler machen die Umfrageinstitute diesmal bei den US-Wahlen?
Der rote Faden ist dabei eine so verfickt schlechte Reinterprätation des folgenden NYT Artikels, dass einem die Spucke wegbleibt…
How Accurate, or Off-Target, Could the Polls Be This Year?
Front „zusammengebrochen“: Ukrainischer Generalmajor bestätigt Probleme in Donezk
src: click (Die Presse)
Und das wo sie doch gerade am gewinnen waren!
Es gibt aber natürlich auch wieder gute Nachrichten, laut der Hauptheadline heute auf diepresse.com haben sich österreichische Bundesheersoldaten auf UN Mission im Libanon selbst in den Fuss geschossen, oder so…
Gleich acht von denen.
Raketentreffer bei Camp: Bundesheersoldaten bei UNO-Einsatz im Libanon leicht verletzt
Bei Raketeneinschlägen in unmittelbarer Nähe des Unifil-Camps im Süden des Libanon wurden mehrere österreichische Soldaten leicht verletzt, gab das Verteidigungsministerium bekannt.
src: click (Die Presse)
Gut, da brauch ma jetzt nicht dazuschreiben wer das war, nicht?
edit: Die Information wurde jetzt nachgereicht:
Laut Angaben der Unifil kam die Rakete aus dem Libanon.
src: click
The official results show the Georgian Dream’s share slightly lower compared to the Gorbi exit polls commissioned by pro-government Imedi TV, while the official results are in dramatic contrast to the exit polls conducted by HarrisX (for pro-opposition Mtavari Arkhi) Edison Research (for opposition-leaning Formula-TV), with the latter being known traditionally as most accurate in election-day polling. Both HarrisX and Edison Research had projected the opposition as winners.
src: click
Difference (Georgian Dream results) Edison polling (40.9%) to official 2024 election result (53.93%) = 13,03% points
Voter turnout 58.94%
Georgian population: 3.8 million
3.8 million -23% (roundabout, see click) to get eligible voters is 2.93
2.93 million - (100-58,94=41,06)% = 1,73 million to account for voter turnout.
13,03% of 1,73 million = 225.419 of alleged (by opposition parties) wrongly allocated votes.
Georgian CEC of course now declared the Marneuli district results invalid because of the aformentioned video evidence of ballot stuffing.
That district has a population of 20.211 minus 23% for eligible voters minus 41,06% to account for voter turnout (20211-23%)-41,06% = 9172 voters.
Georgian Dream Vote percentage in Marneuli: 79,62%
79,62% of 9172 = 7303
So now we have 7303 votes of an alleged 225.419 fraudulently cast under reevaluation!
Great, so whats next?
My Vote pointed to “mass” incidents of voters being given two or more ballots instead of one during the first half of the day, and said there were also cases where the ruling party’s field was already marked on the ballot. The mission said it also “became clear” that numerous reports of confiscating or “renting” voters’ ID cards and collecting their personal information during the campaign were used to carry out the same rigging scheme.
[…]
According to My Vote, as of 10-11 p.m., the mission’s observers identified 347 violations of the marking process, 89 reports of violations of the secrecy of the vote, 341 cases of unauthorized persons in the polling station, and 96 cases of physical violence, threats, and confrontations, as well as 163 cases of obstruction of My Vote observers.
The violations were “systematic” in some areas, including in Marneuli, Bolnisi, Kareli, Gori, Kaspi, Khashuri, Senaki, Gardabani, Gurjaani, Signaghi, Dedoplistskaro, Kobuleti, Sagarejo, Batumi, Zugdidi, Telavi, Chkhorotsku, Akhaltsikhe, Mtskheta, Akhalkalaki, Rustavi, Gldani (Tbilisi), Isani (Tbilisi), Samgori (Tbilisi), and Kharagauli districts.
src: click
Total population of the alleged districts:
20211+8967+6654+48143+13423+26135+21596+10753+8024+
1485+5940+16546+10871+172100+42998+19629+3141+17903+
7940+8295+130100+177500+125610+177844+1965 ==
(1.083.773-23%)-41,06% = 491857 actual people voting. (Including Marneuli.)
Georgian dreams alleged vote percentage = 53.93%
53.93% of 491857 == 265258 potentially affected voting opportunities.
So thats 265.258 potentially affected voting opportunities out of an alleged 225.419 alleged fraudulent votes. (The 13,03% difference of Georgian Dreams results in exit polls compared to official results.)
Meaning 8.5 out of 10 of those 265.258 MUST have voted at least twice, for the result to be explained by double voting.
For those (225.419 alleged fraudulent votes) the NGO My Vote offers up
According to My Vote, as of 10-11 p.m., the mission’s observers identified 347 violations of the marking process, 89 reports of violations of the secrecy of the vote, 341 cases of unauthorized persons in the polling station, and 96 cases of physical violence, threats, and confrontations, as well as 163 cases of obstruction of My Vote observers.
src: click
347 cases of violations in the marking process, and 89 violations of the secrecy of the vote, as well as 96 cases of potential threats.
347+89+96 = 532
Wolfram Alpha, what percentage is 532 out of 225419?
Answer: 0,236%
Which we all learned in the case of the US elections by now is not statistically significant. To prove that the violations were “systematic”.
Georgia, oh my Georgia.
So aside from this making no sense statistically, any other pleasant surprises?
Well…
Speaker Papuashvili Claims Opposition, CSOs Spread “Election-Related Disinformation”
Georgian Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili defended the ruling Georgian Dream party’s highly controversial nearly 54 percent victory in the October 26 elections, denying allegations of fraud by opposition and observers. At the October 28 briefing, he accused opposition forces and civil society organizations of trying to stir unrest in the country through disinformation campaigns. “They don’t want to accept people’s will,” he said.
src: click
contrasting this:
.@edisonresearch exit poll (blue) vs the CEC official results (orange) over the years. Another mathematical proof of blatant rigging. pic.twitter.com/YLmVcpKzXA
— Giorgi Kandelaki (@kandelakigiorgi) October 27, 2024
(That Delta shows the 13,03% points difference in 2024.)
Sigh…
So 2 minute summery?
- Double voting in the districts where irregularities were documented, cant explain the discrepancy in alleged votes.
- The documented ballot stuffing (one or two cases documented) cant explain the discrepancy in alleged votes.
- The documented alleged instances of voting irregularities are not statistically significant to account for an alleged vote discrepancy of 225419 votes
Which leaves electronic voting manipulation as the most likely means remaining to account for a 225419 votes discrepancy (13,03% points) between the usually most reliable exit poll polling agency and the official election result figures.
Thanks to newsukraine.rbc.ua
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/massive-fraud-and-fights-erupt-at-georgia-1729942937.html
That must have been… SEVEN ballots at least!
So of course the NDI INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVER MISSION TO GEORGIA’S OCTOBER 26, 2024 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS promptly speaks of “instances of ballot stuffing” (plural). Without providing any references of course. (Media reports are available for the one that is on tape.)
In addition to one observer beat down that resulted in hospitalization.
In additions to several quarrels at polling stations.
In addition to… Ehm…
Throughout election day, reports from citizen observers provided valuable information to support our observation findings. On election day, citizen observers witnessed widespread violations of the neutrality zone around polling stations by gatherings of ruling party figures and unauthorized persons. Our short-term observers and citizen observers also reported intimidation of voters. Citizen observers also reported an increase in critical incidents, including violence against observers, voters and party representatives.
NDI stresses that this statement is preliminary in nature and that the post-election environment continues to unfold.
src: click
So of course this happens:
Blinken: U.S. Condemns Breaches of Int. Norms During Oct.26 Elections, Calls for Investigation
Shortly before this happens:
A day after Georgia’s parliamentary elections, in which the Central Election Commission declared the ruling Georgian Dream party the winner, senior European parliamentarians issued a joint statement with their Canadian counterpart saying “the elections were neither free nor fair” and that “the European Union cannot recognize the result.”
src: click
Wait, so all it takes to call an election fraudulent as Blinken is one instance of 7 ballots being stuffed into a box, several outbreaks of violence at polling stations and several violations of the neutrality zone around polling stations?
Well, not exactly -- the main argument for this election having been stolen are intimidation campaigns weeks and months before the elections, as well as state sponsored intimidation based on fears around cuts in state spending being used to “motivate” voters to vote for the leading party.
Those are all well documented:
“Organized criminal gangs … are trying to undermine the voting process with aggression and intimidation,” opposition politician Ana Natsvlishvili said.
src: click
It is clear that the pre-election period failed to meet fundamental standards for democratic elections. The government’s passage of legislation that labels civic actors as foreign agents and its campaign to intimidate those that criticized ruling party policies generated a climate of fear.
State-sponsored efforts to discredit and legally restrict election observers forced them to divert resources to self-defense from their central activities to safeguard the elections. The legislation also had a chilling effect on advocates, civic educators and other groups contributing to the political discourse. Ruling party leaders also threatened to criminalize opposition political parties. Legislation passed by the government restricted the rights of and stigmatized vulnerable LGBTQI+ communities in contravention to regional and international human rights standards to which Georgia is obliged. Taken together, the government’s actions caused the European Union to halt Georgia’s accession path.
A fragmented, politicized media environment limited voters’ access to impartial information.The ruling party had disproportionate influence on this environment given its control over state media as well as privately held channels.
src: click
But I still found it noteworthy how little it takes in regards to on the day evidence, to call an election stolen.
Cant wait for the demanded investigation into the matter.
edit: That, and the exit poll vary vastly depending on who did them. I have to mention that as well: click
edit2: Electronic voting was in place and badly vetted.
The EETs were used in 2,263 (74.6 percent) of PECs representing approximately 90 percent of voters.
While the CEC’s online portal for rapid results publication enhanced transparency, it was also unclear whether the additional preliminary results transmission component from electronic PECs was tested for heavy user traffic, or whether results information would be made available in an open data format.
src: click
edit3: France24 has additional info:
Opposition parties alleged incidents of ballot stuffing and intimidation during voting, and called the results “fraudulent”.
src: click
So thats the source of the multiple ballot stuffing incidences. Claims by the opposition parties.
Oh, and swissinfo.ch states, that the OSCE sees it more in line with.… ehm, facts.…
However, monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said they had registered incidents of vote-buying, voter intimidation, and ballot-stuffing that could have affected the outcome. But they stopped short of saying the election was rigged.
src: click
