harlekin.me

Mal sehen ob ich alle Argu­men­te zusammenbekomme.

Also, laut Wes­ley Clark, und dem US Typen von der Heri­ta­ge foun­da­ti­on hier ist ein Ein­satz von rus­si­an tac­ti­cal nukes bis zu einem Sieg der Ukrai­ne in 4-6 Jah­ren nicht aus­ge­schlos­sen (wahr­schein­li­cher, je näher die Ukrai­ne an einem Sieg ist).

Russ­land hat soeben ein neu­es deli­very vehi­cle vor­ge­stellt das:

- Mili­tä­risch einer ande­ren Ein­heit unter­stellt ist und daher mög­li­cher­wei­se von den Geheim­diens­ten weni­ger genau gemo­ni­to­red wird
- Das 30 Pro­jek­ti­le abset­zen kann, die alle am sel­ben Ort einschlagen.
- Von denen sagen wir 20 deco­ys sein kön­nen, und zwei Nukes
- Du weißt im Flug aber nicht wel­che deco­ys sind.
- Die aus Sat­teli­ten­staa­ten Russ­lands abge­schos­sen wer­den können.
- Sodass “sie vor dem Frei­set­zen der Pro­jek­ti­le abfan­gen” bedeu­ten wür­de nach Weiss­russ­land, oder Kasach­stan reinfeu­ern zu müssen.
- Die ihr Ziel in 5-15 Minu­ten errei­chen. Bedeu­tet eine Vor­warn­zeit von weni­gen Minuten.
- Was die fal­se posi­ti­ve rate bei Alar­men für die Bevöl­ke­rung ins Unend­li­che steigert.
- Kann die Rake­te nicht vor dem split­ting am Apex abge­fan­gen wer­den müss­te ein Patri­ot (Mach 4) plötz­lich 22 Pro­jek­ti­le in 15 Sekun­den bis 3,5 Minu­ten abwehren.
- Die alle mit 6-facher Schall­ge­schwin­dig­keit oder höher fliegen.
- Aber - und jetzt gute Nach­rich­ten, der ukrai­ni­sche Geheim­dienst sagt, von den Ore­schniks gibts erst zwei, und viel­leicht eine Hand­voll mehr.

Oder anders gesagt - bei dem deli­very Vehi­kel heißt es ein Abschuss, eine tak­ti­sche Atom­bom­be deli­ve­r­ed. Oder die Rus­sen hät­ten sehr, sehr viel Pech gehabt.

Dort­hin wo die Ukrai­ne gera­de Muni­ti­ons­fa­bri­ken baut.

Dort­hin wo in Deutsch­land US Abfang­ra­ke­ten posi­tio­niert wer­den (im ehe­ma­li­gen Ost­block *hust*). Also, wenn Merz dann die Tau­rus freigibt.

Man, wenn das erst mal los geht, ist das ja ein Spass ohne Ende… (Russ­land behaup­tet die gehen jetzt in Serienproduktion.)

Was war noch­mal Deutsch­lands offi­zi­el­le Ant­wort dar­auf (ähn­li­che Rake­ten bekom­men sie erst 2026, oder später)?

Ich glaub: “Wir las­sen uns von Putin nicht pro­vo­zie­ren und ste­hen voll hin­ter der Ukrai­ne!”, oder?

edit: Dazu die WELT, des waren 6 Raketen!

Ehm… Dann hof­fen wir mal, dass das ein Fake ist…

src: click

Das sieht mir jetzt nicht wie die Abtren­nung von sechs Rake­ten­stu­fen aus… *HUST*

Und als Russ­land die Rake­te in den US ange­kün­digt hat, haben sie ehm da gleich sechs ange­kün­digt, oder…?

Gut, das muss den deutsch­spra­chi­gen Medi­en wie­der nie­mand erklä­ren… (Six dif­fe­rent reen­try vehi­cles.) Es wür­de sie eh nur überfordern.

edit1: Die Ukrai­ne hat es rich­tig berich­tet, AP auch - siehe:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-recruits-missile-fb6c3fdd0e63d2c757bbf95fefcc2e31

Aber sobald das durch durch die deutsch­pra­chi­gen Qua­li­täts­me­di­en geht, upsi -- alles falsch, und es sind auf ein­mal sechs Rake­ten. Naja, was ande­res sind wir von den deutsch­spra­chi­gen Drecks­me­di­en auch nicht gewohnt…

edit2: Falls es jeman­den inter­es­siert die ÖVP scheint Graz gewon­nen zu haben. Es sind nur noch 2 Spren­gel offen und die FPÖ liegt 0.92% Punk­te zurück. src: click

The Rus­si­an mis­si­le that struck the Ukrai­ni­an city of Dnipro on Thurs­day reached a top speed of more than 13,000 kph (8,000 mph) and took about 15 minu­tes to reach its tar­get from its launch, Ukrai­ne said on Fri­day in its first public assess­ment of the new weapon.

src: click (Reu­ters)

So I was inte­res­ted in what height the Medi­um ran­ge mis­si­le nee­ded to reach its tar­get speed.

So one 2 minu­te goog­le search and one rus­si­an mili­ta­ry enthu­si­asts forum later…

src: click

Gran­ted, rus­si­an lea­ning source -- but thats not a para­bo­la. Thats a hyper­bo­la. Max height is at 160km alti­tu­de. Distance tra­v­eled should be around 790km. Lets find a para­bo­la cal­cu­la­tor on goog­le: click

Length Along Axis: 160km
Length of Chord: 790km
=
Arc length = 869km

At Mach 10 which is 3400m per second, … thats 5 minu­tes. Mach 10 was reached in the last seg­ment, so I tried to sol­ve for initi­al velo­ci­ty, whe­re quo­ra was excep­tio­nal­ly hel­pful… 🙂 (click) And once I had my initi­al velo­ci­ty value (3000m per second), I ent­e­red tho­se into an online pro­jec­ti­le moti­on cal­cu­la­tor and sol­ved for time, aaaand…

5 minu­tes.

If you trust a MIT pro­fes­sor in a rus­si­an affi­ni­ty source on initi­al ang­le, and max height reached. 🙂

Initi­al velo­ci­ty would have had to be 950m/s for that rocket­f­light to last 15 minutes.

And if you enter 950 m/s as the initi­al velo­ci­ty speed into this second pro­jec­ti­le for­mu­la cal­cu­la­tor which also takes gra­vi­ty into account, it will tell you, no solu­ti­on, check your para­me­ters. It even does that at 2500 m/s initi­al velocity.

Ups.

Ukrai­ni­an math.

(Or the MIT pro­fes­sor in a rus­si­an affi­ni­ty source lied about ang­le and max height. 🙂 )

edit2: Nope, pro­fes­sor didnt lie. Ukrai­ni­ans are lying bastards.

BBC on North kore­an mis­si­les: click

Mea­ning 500km max alti­tu­de (which would exp­lain a 15 minu­te flight) only nee­ded for 2700km range.

Insti­tu­te for Near East and Gulf Mili­ta­ry Ana­ly­sis on short to medi­um ran­ge missiles:

For a short-to-medium ran­ge mis­si­le that is laun­ched at a tar­get of, say, 650km away, the mis­si­le will reach an alti­tu­de of 130-150km befo­re re-entry.

src: click

Dazu die deutsch­spra­chi­gen Medi­en: “We just print what the Ukrai­ne told Reu­ters. We be gre­at jour­na­lists *blub*.”

edit3: The pro­fes­sor men­ti­ons a dif­fe­rent launch site than wiki, about 2100km away, and also likely a hig­her alti­tu­de, but the cur­ve is still a hyper­bo­la, not a para­bo­la. 2100km away would exp­lain the 15min of tra­vel time though. Alt­hough that would mean that wiki­pe­dia is wrong, which used a NYT report as its source, in regards to the likely launch loca­ti­on named on there.

edit4: Alle­ged launch loca­ti­on 2100km away would have been in Bai­ko­nur, Kasachstan: 

edit5: Look at me, I’m a para­bo­la! Not.

src: click

edit: If you want to have more fun, start thin­king about whe­re (geo­gra­phi­cal­ly) the apex was, whe­re the what, 30 (?) payloads were released. 🙂

Patri­ot sys­tems not desi­gned for inter­cep­ti­on of Rus­si­an intermediate-range mis­si­les, but Ukrai­ne may try, expert says 

Des­pi­te not being desi­gned for this task, Ukrai­ni­an experts sug­gest the Patri­ot mis­si­le sys­tem could attempt to inter­cept Rus­si­an medium-range mis­si­les to pro­tect Ukrai­ni­an territory.

src: click (Euro­mai­d­an­press)

Ukrai­ne wants THAAD mis­si­le sys­tem or Patri­ot upgrade, after attack by new Rus­si­an missile

src: click (Ukrain­s­ka Pravda)

The rea­son is rapid iden­ti­fi­ca­ti­on because -

Speed Air defen­ces can­not inter­cept the Oresh­nik, which attacks at a speed of Mach 10, or 2.5-3 kilo­me­tres (1.6-1.9 miles) per second, Putin said.

src: click (Fran­ce 24)

To which Ukrai­ne replied, yes, yes, but the mis­si­le was laun­ched 2250km(/2?) away!

edit: Wait, what?

The mis­si­le was laun­ched from Astrak­han Oblast, likely from the Kapus­tin Yar trai­ning ground.

src: click

= 790km distance

While this makes sen­se, becau­se the rocket has to fly in a para­bo­la to attain its final speed, ehm…

Wit­hin the U.S. Depart­ment of Defen­se, a medi­um-ran­ge mis­si­le is defi­ned by having a maxi­mum ran­ge of bet­ween 1,000 and 3,000 kilometres

src: click

So - does this mean, that this now was a short ran­ge mis­si­le? 🙂 You know, like the ones the US green­lit for use insi­de Rus­sia… Kinda.. 😉

The Rus­si­an mis­si­le that struck the Ukrai­ni­an city of Dnipro on Thurs­day reached a top speed of more than 13,000 kph (8,000 mph) and took about 15 minu­tes to reach its tar­get from its launch, Ukrai­ne said on Fri­day in its first public assess­ment of the new weapon.

src: click (Reu­ters)

The fol­lowing is pro­bab­ly pro­pa­gan­da, but still…

Ukrai­ne has demons­tra­ted its abi­li­ty to inter­cept Russia’s hyper­so­nic mis­si­les, rely­ing on advan­ced sys­tems such as the US-made Patri­ot and the SAMP-T sys­tems pro­vi­ded by Fran­ce and Ita­ly. Accord­ing to Ukrai­ne, it can inter­cept around 25% of mis­si­les like the Kinzhal and Zir­con. Howe­ver, suc­cess­ful inter­cep­ti­on requi­res pre­cise intel­li­gence, rapid iden­ti­fi­ca­ti­on, and the simul­ta­ne­ous deploy­ment of near­ly all 32 Patri­ot launchers.

src: click (india.com)

25% Suc­cess­ra­te surely is after satu­ra­ting air defen­ses with dro­nes and crui­se mis­si­les, which means that the Kinzhal and Zir­con hyper­so­nic mis­si­les math doesnt work out cost bene­fit wise.

Mean­while the Rhein­me­tall stock did not­hing but rise, while they arran­ged secu­ri­ty part­ners­hips that would pro­du­ce kit insi­de Ukraine…

Lea­ving out Euro­pean agen­cy entirely. 😉

Mode­ra­tor: “Dear embed­ded Jour­na­list, we employ in our net­work, is embed­ded jour­na­lism shit?”

Embed­ded Jour­na­list: “I dont think so, and tech­no­lo­gy got a lot bet­ter” -- now let me show you this one examp­le, whe­re our hand­lers didnt pre­select who we were allo­wed to inter­view. It was ama­zing! One rus­si­an women told us Putin is a gre­at guy! This was this ear­thy, grit­ty fluff that we were loo­king for. That gives you this real fee­ling of having been the­re as a news con­su­mer! (Click, click, click, click, click, like and subscribe.)

What?

Oh! And that one time, when - quo­te french embed­ded jour­na­list, get­ting asked tho­se hard hit­ting ques­ti­ons by a mode­ra­tor of her net­work: “We were allo­wed to walk around in Sud­scha and show the town folks on an Ipad, look, look, this is what its real­ly like, this is the war out there”.

Well - who was we in that instance? Becau­se to my recollec­tion, the ukrai­ni­an sol­di­ers show­ed tho­se clips to rural peop­le the­re on their devices and let a few jour­na­lists film that, right? Of cour­se on sepe­ra­te trips. So ever­yo­ne of tho­se hand­pi­cked jour­na­lists had their “exclu­si­ve”, see:

Oh, what fun times, we had, when, we, I mean they - had that gre­at idea! The french embed­ded jour­na­listri­ce just doesnt see the pro­pa­gan­da ang­le here…

Dont worry, not­hing to see here, move along. We have to go back to base now. Enough Sud­scha for a day!

Well you say - “this one examp­le whe­re hand­lers didnt pre­select” you just men­tio­ned is very unfair and lea­ding, right?

Right.

Here is the you­tube chan­nel for Voice of ame­ri­ca, fil­te­red by the search terms ukrai­ne and mili­ta­ry, watch this, and tell me any dif­fe­rence to the best wes­tern embed­ded repor­ting that is out the­re: https://www.youtube.com/@VOANews/search?query=ukraine%20military

You know, high­lights like “the­re is a store near Kursk, all the ukrai­ni­an mili­ta­ry guys go to (sie­he NZZ und ande­re)”, and “grand­ma was evacua­ted from her farm to Sumi, so she’s safe from bombs (click)”. All the high­lights! May­be also com­pa­re it to “After our hand­ler from the Ukrai­ni­an Poli­ce Head­quar­ters Donezk Regi­on told us to lea­ve the city, we still went to a (ran­dom, not atta­cked) mater­ni­ty ward the next day, to ask a doc­tor if he could lead us to the hos­pi­tals mor­gue to unpack a ran­dom baby corp­se so we could film it, while the hand­ler from the Donezk Regi­on Poli­ce Head­quar­ters was still with us, and then dro­ve us out of Mariu­pol in his own Hyun­dai. He was cal­led Vla­di­mir - we for­got to men­ti­on all of that for 8 mon­ths until a flip­ping inter­view at the sundance film fes­ti­val in the US. Oh, but that was­n’t even embed­ded Jour­na­lism, that was free as can be journalism.

With an ent­i­re­ly inde­pen­dent crew! Con­sis­ting of the head of the pro­fes­sio­nal pho­to­gra­pher socie­ty of Ukrai­ne, and Vla­di­mir, from the Ukrai­ni­an Poli­ce Head­quar­ters Donezk Regi­on, a chan­ce acquaintance. 

Well we first lied and told the world, someo­ne else dro­ve us out of Mariu­pol, and Vla­di­mir just poin­ted us to were cars were that dro­ve out of the city, but…” You know, war jour­na­lism. So you can feel, what its like. Which is the most important thing. Your fee­ling on tho­se things. So you get that sense.