Der Münkler hat gerade im Schloss Elmau Luxury Spa, vor fünf Tagen herausgefunden, dass Putin zuerst das Azovsche Meer und später das Schwarze Meer beherrschen wollte, und deshalb die Ukraine angegriffen hat -- damit sei der Konflikt mit Erdogan vorprogrammiert.
Jetzt ist es halt blöd, dass es einen solchen Konflikt nicht nur nicht gibt, sondern die Türkei sich als neutraler Mittler geriert, für die USA eindeutig über Gebühr -- siehe:
und Putin extra schnell aus Syrien abgezogen ist, als die Türkei dort regionale Ansprüche zu verfolgen im Stande war. Und der Erdogan bei der ersten Pressekonferenz zum Syrien Konflikt dreingeschaut hat, als wärs ihm ständig übel -- aber sonst stimmt eh alles.
Ich sag mal, Hauptsache der Münkler kommt in seiner Karriere noch vom “das Schwarze Meer wird eine Rolle gespielt haben” Sager als Kriegsbegründung für den Ukrainekrieg weg…
Man wecke mich bitte, wenn Erdogan gegen Putin opportuniert - bis dahin…
Next.
Was für ein selbstvorteilhaschendes Aas.
Gut der Spiegelredakteur daneben ist nicht besser und ergeht sich in einem Scheinnarrativ nach dem anderen, warum man die westliche Welt durch mehr “Truth” resilient machen müsse, gegen die Manipulation unserer Mediennarative durch Autokratische Regime… Da hat er sie ja die Wahrheit (Trademark) - gesagt hat er nichts, aber jetzt wissen sies alle - von der deutschprachigen Intelligenzia des höchsten Levels, frisch aus dem Schloss Elmau Luxury Spa --
Putin hat die Ukraine angegriffen, da er sich mit Erdogan anlegen wollte. Wegen dem putinschen Imperialismus, sie verstehen schon…
Gut und nicht nur mit dem Erdogan, der dort die Montreux Convention durchsetzt, sondern auch unbedingt mit Rumänien (NATO), Bulgarien (NATO), der Türkei (NATO), Georgien (so gut wie NATO) und der Ukraine (unwiederbringlich NATO), die ja alle ans schwarze Meer grenzen, bald dann - ich glaub so schnell hab ich noch nie einen Menschen perspektivisch die Nato angreifen sehen, wie Putin als er sich mit Erdogan um die Vorherrschaft im schwarzen Meer streiten wollte!
Aber definitiv nicht anders rum, also dass die Nato langsam Stück für Stück die Staaten am Schwarzen Meer aufgenommen hat, bis Russland dort isoliert ist und seinen wichtigsten Exporthafen (40%) und seinen wichtigsten Hafen für die Power Projection in die Black Sea, das Mittelmeer und Afrika verliert (alles Fakten genannt von einer ukrainischen Ministerin im Globsec Video oben), NEIN!
Die fünf Freunde - Rumänien (NATO), Bulgarien (NATO), Georgien (so gut wie NATO) und die Ukraine (unwiederbringlich NATO), wollten ja zusammen mit dem Sprecher aus den US bei der Globsec Konferenz von oben, die von der Türkei durchgesetzte Montreux Convention so sehr ehren, dass sie 5 Mal im obrigen Video auf der Globsec Konferenz auf die Türkei eingeprügelt haben, ob sie das noch alleine schaffe, und warum sie sich das überhaupt antäte, und ob ihr nicht lieber die NATO unter den Arm greifen solle.…
Jaja, so ist der der Münkler, konterfaktisch - wenn grad praktisch. Für die Karriere.
Was für ein Schwein.
Aber gut vortragen kann er ja.
PS: Da können sich die russischen Geostrategen gleich dreimal bekreuzigen, dass die nicht länger in Syrien geblieben sind. Bei den Vorzeichen vom 8. Dezember auf Elmau…
It is to disappear, while you are driving the entire thing - whenever some folks would want that to happen.
So
- When the podcaster with the largest following in the world says, that he’s afraid - when the US sends rockets into russia, that prompts the ukrainian PR to make Wladimir Klitschko produce a “JOE, WHYYOUBELIEVEDINRUSSIANPROPAGANDA!” video.
- When the designated US president does the same, four days later in his TIME - 2024 person of the year interview, its world news and the entirety of europe starts to talk about forming a european peace force for Ukraine.
- but then when you go into detail - and listen to Michael Kofman in the initial video above, the story always continues on as follows:
- but then in the negotiations the US will lose all its agency, and will not get what it needed - which we never need to talk about in detail, because Russia will want more. Regardless of what it is. So then the negotiations obviously fail, and then Trump will recognize that he doesnt get what he wants so easily, and then he will react like a madman of course -- and switch his entire stance to the opposite, because he likes winning so much -
and this will still allow us to prolong the war, which gives us a chance to put Ukraine back into a more favorable position and then…
- the entire plan we followed for two years, just gets postponed by 6 months, and of course germany has to pay more - because Trump really is the type that will want to pay less.
Whats missing from the entirety of this projection?
Any US agency.
We dont know what they want. We dont know what Russia wants “more” just that it does so, and therefore negotiations will fail. We dont know why Trump will switch positions at that point, just that he does, because he’s that impulsive, but hes not impulsive to that point before, or later, or when it comes to reminding the germans, that they have to pay more.
So - now that it is entirely obvious, that Ukraine isnt driving any of this - what is the US position?
What agency does the US have?
Here is the only likely answer in my mind.
Trump wants to end this war.
What he wants doesnt matter. (See also: NZZ 22.11.2024: click)
Because as soon as he talks to Putin about half of his advisors will tell him, that he got a bad deal, and he cant possibly want that - and then, why using the rockets that Trump didnt want to use - is just the way out of this, he was looking for.
And about 100% of the US Experts that are part of the US foreign policy establishment think, that they - or the situation as they represent it, will drive the entire situation back to where it was the past two years, regardless of Trump or not.
So - when you see the events progressing in that sort of way - you can instantly think about the substory such a plot would be embedded in in some bad novel.
Now we are in the period of struggle. The german society is unsure. The media ecosystem is really worried about the future of Ukraine, but dont you worry - the bad, bad Putin will make it impossible that the negotiations will be successfull - and then the true King will see the wrongs of his ways, and understand, that he must be King, and act tough - and then he will finally beat the evil Ork-Lord, and society never has to come to terms with the fact, that the entire media narrative so far didnt represent what happened, and in large parts was driven by US generated “counter naratives”.
So thats the special power of the US. It has no agency. Everytime it does something, the entire reality just instantly changes arround the US position, so that the US just didnt have agency, in the last thing that happened. It just was the obvious thing that would happen. And therefore the US position also never has to be explained.
Wether it ist, that US rockets flying into Russia is bad, or if that is just Russian propaganda, doesnt get decided by the public argument, or the time in the conflict - it simply gets decided by “when the US picks that as a narrative” -- and then it is bad.
When the US comes up with a set of demands, its never that set of demands, that would cause negotiations to fail, or the reactions of the military advisors to subsequent counterclaims, no its always - that Putin didnt want to talk anyhow.
And when Donald Trump subsequently changes his position again, and goes full Pillsbury Doughboy on the world stage, and rachets up the escalation ladder, its not because he is unstable, no - it is because that would be whats obviously, likely to happen - and the only way the Ukraine still can get to a favourable position six months later than hoped, with germany spending more money on it. With the US doing less to support this outcome - but its the only way to freedom, really.
Its not that Ukraine is driving this - because its obviously not --
its just that when the people that drive that in the US get into storytelling mode -- the entire world changes around them, just so the US never has any agency - anything that they want. Anything that would be their red lines. It either happens like they want it to - or it was obvious, that it was never meant to be that way anyhow.
Especially when you have someone at the helm whose decision making is seen as transactional.
And its not just in this case - with a person like Trump, its the entire “this is how it will work in the future” the American Academy in Berlin promoted two days ago:
So -- if the younger people in the US (genz and millenials named) dont want the US to play World Hegemon, its of course because they never benefited from that financially, and they grew up in a different time, and we told them that bringing back industry to america was the solution, you really have to understand them, and build a whole new narrative on what US foreign relations are around them. [context: click] This is your task as a proponent of the American Academy in Berlin, as you openly tell every Berliner that is in the captive audience there.
But then -- when you get an audience question to the effect, that China really tries to drive the “europe divided” gambit right now, and that Europe isnt able to end the war on its own, but that the US is always demanding deals that are zero sum game (because you have to understand, thats Trumps transactional nature), and that the US might demand, that Europe has to decide between China and the US during a period of war the US is just detatching more from --
you of course get the answer, that IF Europe is always trying to drive the bargain that is best for it, Europa had it coming, and the Europeans really just have to suffer a bit more (so your millenials get better economic conditions, but that you dont mention of course, because you dont have any agency).
See -- is not the US agency that drives this, its the world forming around the US argument, as soon as it is fixed into position, just so the US really had no agency - this was just the normal way things would develop.
And this is what you call “us foreign policy”, or deep state, if you are a rightwing nut in the US, or Friends of Alpbach, if you are in Austria.
The only thing you really have to do is to set up the media narrative, so that anything the US does really isnt something the US does, but something that Ukraine has to decide, and then not tell the public, that the Ukraine doesnt decide shit. And then make the transitions fast enough to where the public can retain in a “I always believed we should stick with Ukraine” just long enough, for this to make sense again -- once you got rid of what your president wanted, or what the negotiations really failed on and just remain telling the world, that its all because Putin is a crazed being hellbent on reconquering the russian empire -- with entirely too few troops and tanks for that.
But you see - the only thing we can do - is stick with what we are doing, so Ukraine can get the upper hand again, and then this finally can result in a just peace -- with territorial integrity. In the future, through political means. When Ukraine is in Nato, which sadly it should be in already, but cant be until Russia is beaten.
You see - this is not US agency (oh, and fuck germany during all of this), no - it is just the logical progression of things.
And the world once more starts to revolve and evolve around the only possible framing, where the US just had no agency.
Then the US had nothing to do with the coup in Syria at all - according to US officials and its next designated president also wants to have nothing to do with it - but then the US foreign minister flys into Ankara to discuss the situation with turkey - but not into Israel, because - see, you really had no agency. It was just logical, that the world revolved around you like this, while we have to wait how things will work out for Syria - because of course - we have no agency in any of this, as Syria has a vibrant and vivid civil society.
Also - of course the cause for the Syrian revolution was Iran, as everyone knows, of course, that took a set of bad decisions in october of 2023 - as the Woodrow Wilson Center speaker featured in the thumbnail of this video [edit: they changed thumbnails, more women, more click] will tell us today:
edit: It also helps immensely if your sworn enemy of the Leo Strauss persuasion, is ALWAYS driven by personal agency only. So - hes always crazy, corupt, insane, out for revenge. Just because its such an attractive emotional contrast to you just having no agency in all of this.
Well, democracy promotion, maybe… - or you are doing it for “success” if you are really pressed for an answer. Or “there has to be an adult in the room, and thats the US” as the Woodrow Wilson Center fellow puts it in the video above. Even though Syria has to manage this on its own. Because the US has no agency. And then, when the youngest panelist asks you, but how can the US play a role in all of this, because it would just result in a better outcome, you of course answer -- its not that a question of “how can we be a part of this, it is that the circumstances will always draw us in (because - later in the argument, the russians could grab power again so easily)”. As we simply have no agency.
Slava.
Slava Ukraine.
Do I still have to say that? Well, better safe than sorry, …
Wenn die österreichische Presse (diepresse.com) von einer drohenden Einkesselung bei Kurachowe spricht:
Ukrainischen Soldaten droht Einkesselung bei Kurachowe
Die Lage an der Ostfront der ukrainischen Verteidiger verschlechtert sich zusehends. Nach Angaben ukrainischer Militärbeobachter drohte einer ungenannten Zahl von Soldaten die Einkesselung südlich von Kurachowe im Gebiet Donezk. Sie hatten dort lange Stellungen auf beiden Seiten des Flusses Suchi Jaly gehalten, doch schneidet das Vorrücken der Russen in den Ort Uspeniwka ihren Abzugsweg ab. „Es ist schwer zu verstehen, welchen Sinn es hat, den ‚Sack von Uspeniwka‘ zu halten, wenn der Feind weiterhin schrittweise Kurachowe einnimmt“, hieß es auf dem Militärblog „DeepState“.
Schon 2, oder? Weil ja “südlich von Kurachowe im Gebiet Donezk”.
Nun denn auf zur nächsten taktischen Besprechung “„Es ist schwer zu verstehen, welchen Sinn es hat, den ‚Sack von Uspeniwka‘ zu halten, wenn der Feind weiterhin schrittweise Kurachowe einnimmt“, hieß es auf dem Militärblog „DeepState“.”
Stimmt, ich glaube man sollte den Rückzug mal als Option andenken. Wo der Feind doch so und so schrittweise Kurachowe einnimmt. Vielleicht ist 2 nicht mehr der ideale Ort für eine “gute altbackene ukrainische Verteidigung”.
Ich glaub, ich machs wie die österreichische Presse und beziehe meine Informationen auch weiterhin vom Militärblog “DeepState”, warum jetzt noch seine Primärquellen wechseln, sag ich mir als Außenpolitikressort-Journalist der österreichischen Presse immer. Direkt nach dem Frühstückstee. Hmm… Hagebutte!
Ein Umstand der diese Empfehlung unserer transatlantischen Freunde vom 22. November 2024 geradezu antiquarisch anmuten lässt:
What, china has 250x the ship building capacity compared to the US at this time? Targeted towards smaller more mobile ships, which are about what you’d need in the future to secure sea routes?
Lets send the germans over there to patrol “our backyard in south asia”, so they’ll learn what the challenges there are, first hand!
I call this:
Have an unsolvable problem again? Plug it with germany!
(Maybe tell them they can do the same they did with russia, pacify them through trade opportunities! No, tell them they can learn how to act tough militarily there! Better argument for the domestic audience!)
The problem still remains unsolveable, but at least now you have side benefits!
Germany wins, and chinese pull back more - Win. Germany loses, and chinese pull German trade options - Win.
Man stelle sich vor, sie stehen als deutscher Marine Admiral auf dem Deck der Gorch Fock, im Südchinesischen Meer, Steuerbord von ihnen die See, Backbord von ihnen das chinesische Festland, und da kommt ihnen soetwas entgegen. Was tun sie? Greifen sie a.) zum Megaphon um den Kaptain des feindlichen Schiffes an die geltenden maritimen Rechte zu erinnern, oder greifen sie b.) zum Satteliten-Telefon um ihre Tochter anzurufen und ihr vorzujammen, dass die Experten in den US den Schuss noch nicht gehört haben.
Zweitens:
Sie erinnern sich an den guten Ratschlag von Gen. Ben Hodges, dem vierten Weltkriegs-Experten dem die Medien vertrauen - vom 22. November 2024 - dass der Ukraine Krieg noch mit Himars zu gewinnen sei:
Dort [France 24] erzählt Ben Hodges nun seinen perfekten Plan wie er Russland, das nicht mehr gewinnen kann, es sei denn eine Seite gibt auf -- schnell und kompromisslos besiegen würde:
Also, so Gen. Ben Hodges -- Russland kann nur machen, was es macht, weil es “Tactical Headquarters”, “Rocket Launchers”, and “Hundreds of thousands of ammunitions” hat. Und wenn man das gezielt vernichten würde, mit Himars nämlich, also dann hätte Russland also nicht nur nicht gewonnen, sondern also definitiv verloren.
Ben Hodges ist damit der erste ehemalige General des US Generalstabs, der nicht mitbekommen hat, was die Taktik der US in der zweiten Kriegsphase war -- vielleicht lassen sie sich das nochmal von einem ehemaligen Stratfor Analysten erklären, und der nicht mitbekommen hat, dass Russland daraufhin seine Versorgungsinfrastruktur so weit wie möglich dezentralisiert hat. Die Ukraine hatte zu dem Zeitpunkt 80 Himars gefordert, da diese zu Anfang dieser Phase sehr effektiv waren, aber nur 20 auf Zeit (über mehrere Monate) von den US bekommen.
Und erhöhen als The right honorable Sir Ben Wallace who served as the british Secretary of State for Defence from 2019 to 2023 gestern bei Chatham House -
auf - nein, also die effektivste Waffe der Ukraine war immer noch die Artilleriegranate, auf deren Produktion sollte sich Europa jetzt fokusieren, und dann rekrutiert die Ukraine noch Frauen, und dann machen wir eine Ausbildungsinitiative von einer Million Ukrainern die in der EU und Großbritannien ausgebildet werden, und dann gewinnen wir diesen Krieg, Putin hat keine Chance.
Naja - zumindest hat der ehemalige britische Verteidigungsminister verstanden, dass Himars den Krieg nicht mehr drehen, und kann rechnen - welches Waffenssystem denn am effektivsten wäre wenn, ehm so ein Drittel der Kriegsfinanzierung im US Senat stecken bleibt, und Europa rechnen müsste.
Und was das erst wieder für einen Aufwind in der deutschen Industrie Produktion bringt! So ein 50 Jähriger Engineer in der Hochtechnologie, der endlich wieder an der Drehbank, im industriellen Rahmen Mörser-Rohre drehen darf, die durch LNG Verstromung betrieben wird. Da schrumpft sich die deutsche Wirtschaft im Nuh gesund.
Nur Propaganda hat immer noch niemand von den deutschsprachigen Medien entdeckt, was will man machen…
Naja -- dann kann der Krieg ja endlich wieder weitergehen.
The former Syrian foreign minister is still in place. The Syrian UN delegation is still in place and was giving interviews two days ago that they now would work for the new regime, because they like working for the Syrian people. And that of course the new regime would still work in tandem with the UN, mostly on humanitarian efforts…
Sadly I lost the Youtube clip with the interview of the lead of the delegation. Was uploaded by an account with an italians persons name - so probably not easily vetted by me - but boy, was that a very well managed coup!
I just leave you with the following France 24 panel instead:
edit: See also:
NNA - Syria’s permanent representative to the UN on Monday said his mission has received instructions to continue doing its job in New York as part of an effort “to maintain state institutions.”
Koussay Aldahhak also called on the UN and the Security Council to put an end to Israeli attacks on his country.
“We’re with the Syrian people. We’ll keep defending and working for the Syrian people. So we’ll continue our work until further notice,” he said.
The collapse of the Assad regime followed a lightning offensive that lasted less than two weeks. On Sunday, insurgents swept into the capital Damascus to topple the regime and send President Bashar Assad fleeing. Russian news agencies report that he has been granted asylum in Moscow.
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