More of the same! More of the same! And think about the sudden miracle potential!
So where we are standing right now - it’s starting to sink in that the ukrainian win condition currently is two fold.
1. Defeat russia thoroughly. As in the last russian soldier leaves the territory, Crimea gains self-government for 30 years, then automatically becomes part of the ukrainian political structure again.
But then there is an additional condition, namely -
2. That russia be forever unable to mount an attack again - or at least for 30 years (as this is one of the US goals that became public). This is a pretty involved war aim, because in more than one sense a protracted conflict is more than enough for russia to disrupt ukrainian economic development enough to bleed the country out over the longterm. So now the most viable option seems to tie this all together into a regimechange option, which a western forward candidate would have to win, which is only really viable after a total ukrainian military victory. Or something thats publicly perceived as very close to that.
Enter catlady to massage the points.
BUT WHAT IF -
Ukrainian offensive in the summer is very sucessfull, and russian counter offensive isnt, and russias military position becomes desperate (largely overlaps with crimea getting cut off from supply routes btw), and then this provokes a sudden rethinking process in the russian elite, and then there is open protest against a prolongued disruption strategy of ukraine, and then there would be a regime change opportunity which then the west forward candidate would win, and then they could finally start paying reparation payments for the next 100 years, which the russian population might like!
I mean short term. Because people would be voting with short term interests in mind.
To which the answer normally is - you’d need at least many more dead bodies, before the the public sentiment would start to flip in russia.
To which catlady would reply, but think of the sudden miracle potential, dont rule that out!
Because catladys next argument becomes - if the west would just deliver more and more effective weapons, at least the ukraine could regain some territory - which the Rand corporation by now has specified as entirely useless in terms of war progression or viable war aims, because the economic benefit is small. (As long as ukraine is holding Odessa that is.)
To which the non “miracles could stack up” position is -- the likely outcome is a protracted war, which will then turn into a frozen conflict - to which catlady replies --
- well, but its too early to rule out miracle potential, because the ukrainian army could still defeat russia significantly in their summer offensive.
To which the response then is - but that doesnt mean that the entire russian army will retract, and you still would need a total victory -
to which the catlady response than is, yes, but cumulated miracles can happen, its too early to rule that out.
To which the response then is, but for that to happen, you primarily need dead russian bodies (an actual war of attrition fought out will deliver them), not liberation of territory. To which the response then becomes, yes but miracles could happen. And the psychological effect of recapturing territory!
And now to the good news, catladys position represents the western publics position at large.
Horray!
Well, maybe not the publics position (“ukraine should take up negotiations, even if they’d loose crimea”) but the political establishments position, which has to be uniform, because - ehm - unity great. West strong.
Uh, and never mention to them game theory. And non zero sum games. They cant process. I mean catladys deliberation potential is tapped out at finding the right scarf.
Oh and by the way, we have to do this, because think of the international precedent this would create otherwise!
And btw. I even agree with catladys position for maybe another year or two, to really have the economic cost for having started this sink in for russia - but that doesnt necessarily harm their leadership classes.
And then we wait another year and try it again, and then we wait another year and try it again, and then catlady has three new cats, one of which would be named Hero, or Heroic probably.
To which the default position then still is this is looking like its becoming a protracted war of attrition, that might later turn into a frozen conflict.
To which the response of the current US administration would be - great, because that leads to more dead bodies, and the regime change potential would rise.
To which catlady would respond - yes, and maybe they could even liberate another territory or two!
To which the answer currently is, the effort for ukraine to liberate the entire country, including crimea through military means, by some, is seen as maybe 20 fold of what they have achieved so far.
Because Charkiew was low russian infantry numbers, low trained units (national guard), no second line they could fall back to, because those troops got moved to Cherson, and a working ukrainian propaganda initiative, that gave the russians the impression, that they were already in their back.
But it could happen again, and then it would only need to stack a few times, and then… I mean then - the russian public sentiment could turn on a whim!
Even if both nations see this as a war for their survival - .
Oh, but never get back to non zero sum thinking, it would be too dangerous.
Cant trust Putin!
Now renewing the grain export deal for another 60 days.
And still no issues to manufacture most weapons domestically for one of the involved parties in that war.
edit: Former goth lady now chips in - catlady totally right. (More or less.)
Minna Ålander is a research fellow in the European Union research programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) where her research focus is on German foreign and security policy. She is also part of the research project analyzing Finland’s evolving role in Euro-Atlantic security, led by Matti Pesu, where she particularly focuses on Finnish security and defence policy, Northern European security and Nordic defence cooperation. Previously, Ålander worked at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin.
src: click
SWP? Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, inventors of the “learning curve”.
No one has yet seen any propaganda though.
