the bubblies of mind reading Putin fortune tellers. “Because he’s a KGB operative, he knows you have to have contingency planning.”
(edit: Video wurde mittlerweile offline genommen, hier (im eingebetteten Video) ist noch ein Teil zu sehen: click)
(edit: Das Video wurde in einer anderen Fassung wieder in voller Länge online gestellt. Videolink im Beitrag wurde von mir ersetzt. Das hier war der alte.)
Might be a bit unfair, because it is Fiona Hill (the BEST of the mind reading Putin fortune tellers), but nevertheless… (Her four stone statues theory of how Putin really thinks at the end of the talk is priceless…)
Narrative goes as follows: Because it was the ideal moment to attack from the russian perspective, and Putin was unable to fathom a different outcome, because he defines nationality ethnically and not ideologically, he invaded, and was certain, this would be a repeat of the annexation of crimea, which is also why he sent in police forces -- but then wait for it, he doesnt think that its gone horribly wrong, because as a KGB operative, he knows you have to have contingency planning, and - this is also, why he doesnt want to end the war, because if he ends the war now, it would be a horrible disaster, and, yet he believes he can still win it because of his crazyness and all the contingency planning. Got it?
With his goal still being to destroy the nationhood of Ukraine, one way, or another.
Also of note, because of his isolation ridden mind, and him being kept out of the loop in terms of actual military strength, probably studying former maps of the soviet union, under candle light, during the covid crisis -- that gave Putin this grand concept of what should be, which is obviously crazy (I agree) - and he saw all the indicators that pointed at europe and the west being in a weak state, and rightfully so (by Hills admission/understanding), he then came up with an attack plan, that then also contained contingencies, and because he thought, that his military was so over the top efficient, and as he was obviously crazy - he sent in police forces, not his military, as part of the first attack on Kiew.
Nevertheless - the last military interventions of Russia, were aimed at restoring buffer territory to safeguard against potential invasions (in geostrategic logic - see Zeihan, or others), more so than empire building - as russia is in a demographic decline (meaning, no people for empire building, which by other experts accounts is also why russia is so uninterested in leaving any infrastructure intact in Ukraine currently, because they can’t mobilize enough potential settlers in the aftermath anyhow - but I digress) -- obviously, when the US (negotiating for Europe) in December wasnt willing to budge on Ukraine and Georgias Nato membership perspectives, which was the key russian demand at that time, extending his former mode of operation, was an insane, crazy, covid isolation driven miscalculation, that no one could have seen coming, except the american intelligence services for months, from someone who couldnt fathom the concept of ideologic nationalism, but then he doesnt think he has lost the war yet, because he always had contingencies and…
Sorry, where do you get you information from again?
… also, its Putin who cant live with a thriving democracy next to crumbling russia (demographic and economic decline), because - if we go by political talk show logic, that was the real reasoning behind Putins, now all of a sudden pretty calculating mind.
Oh, and that Putin publicly shunned the leader of his foreign intelligence service, and then went with the expertise of the national intelligence service instead (position Fiona Hill holds in this video), first was a display of his utter insanity (because he publicly humiliated the guy), but then also a signal - according to Julia Ioffe (statement given in the same week). But then, in the past, when he took over crimea, parts of the ukrainian military in the region turned, because of bribing campaigns spearheaded by the foreign intelligence office, as he couldnt imagine how ideological nationalism works -- but then after he publicly shunned the head of the foreign intelligence office (SVR), because he didnt believe in his reports anymore, and had contingency plans for what would happen if the SVR failed in their bribing campaigns, well - that then was obviously the isolation ridden, covid fearing mind of a madman, who couldnt fathom, what would happen, when the ukrainians, and much less the europeans would stick together, except for that he had contingencies, and currently is on a PR tour in nordafrica.
Let me end this the following way.
Putin is mocked (thats fair, by the way) for having to switch narratives, from “all Ukrainians are nazis” to “the Nato would have attacked us in the future anyhow, so we had to take this step as a preventative measure” (public narrative). Which is obviously very painful for russia, because Putin really believed in his own propaganda narrative first of all (the one you actively set up, so russian soldiers have an enemy image (outgroup) in their mind, and can be made to shoot at their “brotherly neighbors, speaking their own language”), as you start believing your own propaganda after a while, and will now have huge issues convincing the russian public, that this was all about Nato, now that contingency plans are in play. So very difficult to switch narratives, mid war.
Not as if crazy Putin, now more and more would become that calculating Putin with contingency planning, signaling that he suspected the SVR heads bribing operations to have failed all along.
I mean, you are an expert right? So crazy and believing your own historical propaganda in the moment you decide to engage in war, in a small group of elites, so not on your own, but calculating and crude from that point forward. So calculating in fact, that we know, that you know, that we know, that he wouldnt escalate to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, until russia perceives itself being under risk of being structurally defeated, and resorts to this as a last response.
Even though three quarters of germans a month ago feared a nuclear confrontation - but that had nothing to do with the insane madman narrative that was spread, at the moment Ukraine needed more heavy weaponry (Multiple rocket launchers, anyone? Sure, those would be grand!), which was set in motion by the Atlantic council before Butscha - but then on the talk show circuit was because Selenskyj became convinced, that this would be the way forward, after Butscha.
Got it? Great.
edit: Uh, uh, (at 10:20 in) Fiona Hill picked up on the fact, that he actively used the term Novorussia in his encrazed speech, declaring the war - but in her explanation, this is still the crazy covid angst ridden Putin mind following his own encrazed logic, not the historical concept taught in russian schools for the past fifty years or so, that gets the russian public in line with the “getting ukraine back to the motherland” narrative! And thats so obvious, because when Putin then had the crazy leader of the russian orthodox church expand that into the RUS narrative, they were spreading, it was obviously (other experts btw, forgotten who exactly), the patriarch of the russian orthodox church holding a spell over Putins crazy covid angst ridden mind, that also had come up with contingency planning, within a small group of elites. Except that Fiona Hill believes the opposite. So Novorussia narrative is still crazy Putin, but RUS narrative is already calculating contingencies crafting.
Got it? Great. Just make sure to keep the stories straight, of what was still crazy Putin, and what was obviously calculating KGB Putin with contingency planning in place, otherwise you could be considered to have been wrong in the past.
