Contingency planning has entered

05. Juni 2022

the bub­blies of mind rea­ding Putin for­tu­ne tel­lers. “Becau­se he’s a KGB ope­ra­ti­ve, he knows you have to have con­tin­gen­cy planning.”

(edit: Video wur­de mitt­ler­wei­le off­line genom­men, hier (im ein­ge­bet­te­ten Video) ist noch ein Teil zu sehen: click)
(edit: Das Video wur­de in einer ande­ren Fas­sung wie­der in vol­ler Län­ge online gestellt. Video­link im Bei­trag wur­de von mir ersetzt. Das hier war der alte.)

Might be a bit unfair, becau­se it is Fio­na Hill (the BEST of the mind rea­ding Putin for­tu­ne tel­lers), but nevertheless… (Her four stone sta­tu­es theo­ry of how Putin real­ly thinks at the end of the talk is priceless…)

Nar­ra­ti­ve goes as fol­lows: Becau­se it was the ide­al moment to attack from the rus­si­an per­spec­ti­ve, and Putin was unab­le to fathom a dif­fe­rent out­co­me, becau­se he defi­nes natio­na­li­ty eth­ni­cal­ly and not ideo­lo­gi­cal­ly, he inva­ded, and was cer­tain, this would be a repeat of the annex­a­ti­on of cri­mea, which is also why he sent in poli­ce for­ces -- but then wait for it, he doesnt think that its gone hor­ri­b­ly wrong, becau­se as a KGB ope­ra­ti­ve, he knows you have to have con­tin­gen­cy plan­ning, and - this is also, why he doesnt want to end the war, becau­se if he ends the war now, it would be a hor­ri­ble dis­as­ter, and, yet he belie­ves he can still win it becau­se of his cra­zy­ness and all the con­tin­gen­cy plan­ning. Got it?

With his goal still being to des­troy the nati­on­hood of Ukrai­ne, one way, or another.

Also of note, becau­se of his iso­la­ti­on rid­den mind, and him being kept out of the loop in terms of actu­al mili­ta­ry strength, pro­bab­ly stu­dy­ing for­mer maps of the soviet uni­on, under cand­le light, during the covid cri­sis -- that gave Putin this grand con­cept of what should be, which is obvious­ly cra­zy (I agree) - and he saw all the indi­ca­tors that poin­ted at euro­pe and the west being in a weak sta­te, and right­ful­ly so (by Hills admission/understanding), he then came up with an attack plan, that then also con­tai­ned con­tin­gen­ci­es, and becau­se he thought, that his mili­ta­ry was so over the top effi­ci­ent, and as he was obvious­ly cra­zy - he sent in poli­ce for­ces, not his mili­ta­ry, as part of the first attack on Kiew.

Nevertheless - the last mili­ta­ry inter­ven­ti­ons of Rus­sia, were aimed at res­to­ring buf­fer ter­ri­to­ry to safe­guard against poten­ti­al inva­si­ons (in geo­stra­te­gic logic - see Zei­han, or others), more so than empi­re buil­ding - as rus­sia is in a demo­gra­phic decli­ne (mea­ning, no peop­le for empi­re buil­ding, which by other experts accounts is also why rus­sia is so unin­te­res­ted in lea­ving any infra­st­ruc­tu­re inta­ct in Ukrai­ne cur­r­ent­ly, becau­se they can’t mobi­li­ze enough poten­ti­al sett­lers in the after­math any­how - but I dig­ress) -- obvious­ly, when the US (nego­tia­ting for Euro­pe) in Decem­ber wasnt wil­ling to budge on Ukrai­ne and Geor­gi­as Nato mem­bers­hip per­spec­ti­ves, which was the key rus­si­an demand at that time, exten­ding his for­mer mode of ope­ra­ti­on, was an insa­ne, cra­zy, covid iso­la­ti­on dri­ven mis­cal­cu­la­ti­on, that no one could have seen com­ing, except the ame­ri­can intel­li­gence ser­vices for mon­ths, from someo­ne who couldnt fathom the con­cept of ideo­lo­gic natio­na­lism, but then he doesnt think he has lost the war yet, becau­se he always had con­tin­gen­ci­es and…

Sor­ry, whe­re do you get you infor­ma­ti­on from again?

… also, its Putin who cant live with a thri­ving demo­cra­cy next to crumb­ling rus­sia (demo­gra­phic and eco­no­mic decli­ne), becau­se - if we go by poli­ti­cal talk show logic, that was the real rea­so­ning behind Putins, now all of a sud­den pret­ty cal­cu­la­ting mind.

Oh, and that Putin publicly shun­ned the lea­der of his for­eign intel­li­gence ser­vice, and then went with the exper­ti­se of the natio­nal intel­li­gence ser­vice ins­tead (posi­ti­on Fio­na Hill holds in this video), first was a dis­play of his utter insa­ni­ty (becau­se he publicly humi­lia­ted the guy), but then also a signal - accord­ing to Julia Iof­fe (state­ment given in the same week). But then, in the past, when he took over cri­mea, parts of the ukrai­ni­an mili­ta­ry in the regi­on tur­ned, becau­se of brib­ing cam­pai­gns spear­hea­ded by the for­eign intel­li­gence office, as he couldnt ima­gi­ne how ideo­lo­gi­cal natio­na­lism works -- but then after he publicly shun­ned the head of the for­eign intel­li­gence office (SVR), becau­se he didnt belie­ve in his reports any­mo­re, and had con­tin­gen­cy plans for what would hap­pen if the SVR fai­led in their brib­ing cam­pai­gns, well - that then was obvious­ly the iso­la­ti­on rid­den, covid fea­ring mind of a mad­man, who couldnt fathom, what would hap­pen, when the ukrai­ni­ans, and much less the euro­peans would stick tog­e­ther, except for that he had con­tin­gen­ci­es, and cur­r­ent­ly is on a PR tour in nordafrica.

Let me end this the fol­lowing way. 

Putin is mocked (thats fair, by the way) for having to switch nar­ra­ti­ves, from “all Ukrai­ni­ans are nazis” to “the Nato would have atta­cked us in the future any­how, so we had to take this step as a pre­ven­ta­ti­ve mea­su­re” (public nar­ra­ti­ve). Which is obvious­ly very pain­ful for rus­sia, becau­se Putin real­ly belie­ved in his own pro­pa­gan­da nar­ra­ti­ve first of all (the one you actively set up, so rus­si­an sol­di­ers have an enemy image (out­group) in their mind, and can be made to shoot at their “bro­ther­ly neigh­bors, spea­king their own lan­guage”), as you start belie­ving your own pro­pa­gan­da after a while, and will now have huge issu­es con­vin­cing the rus­si­an public, that this was all about Nato, now that con­tin­gen­cy plans are in play. So very dif­fi­cult to switch nar­ra­ti­ves, mid war.

Not as if cra­zy Putin, now more and more would beco­me that cal­cu­la­ting Putin with con­tin­gen­cy plan­ning, signa­ling that he suspec­ted the SVR heads brib­ing ope­ra­ti­ons to have fai­led all along.

I mean, you are an expert right? So cra­zy and belie­ving your own his­to­ri­cal pro­pa­gan­da in the moment you deci­de to enga­ge in war, in a small group of eli­tes, so not on your own, but cal­cu­la­ting and cru­de from that point for­ward. So cal­cu­la­ting in fact, that we know, that you know, that we know, that he wouldnt esca­la­te to the use of tac­ti­cal nuclear wea­pons, until rus­sia per­cei­ves its­elf being under risk of being struc­tu­ral­ly defea­ted, and resorts to this as a last response.

Even though three quar­ters of ger­mans a mon­th ago fea­red a nuclear con­fron­ta­ti­on - but that had not­hing to do with the insa­ne mad­man nar­ra­ti­ve that was spread, at the moment Ukrai­ne nee­ded more hea­vy wea­pon­ry (Mul­ti­ple rocket laun­chers, anyo­ne? Sure, tho­se would be grand!), which was set in moti­on by the Atlan­tic coun­cil befo­re Butscha - but then on the talk show cir­cuit was becau­se Selen­skyj beca­me con­vin­ced, that this would be the way for­ward, after Butscha.

Got it? Great.

edit: Uh, uh, (at 10:20 in) Fio­na Hill picked up on the fact, that he actively used the term Novorus­sia in his encra­zed speech, decla­ring the war - but in her explana­ti­on, this is still the cra­zy covid angst rid­den Putin mind fol­lowing his own encra­zed logic, not the his­to­ri­cal con­cept taught in rus­si­an schools for the past fif­ty years or so, that gets the rus­si­an public in line with the “get­ting ukrai­ne back to the mother­land” nar­ra­ti­ve! And thats so obvious, becau­se when Putin then had the cra­zy lea­der of the rus­si­an ortho­dox church expand that into the RUS nar­ra­ti­ve, they were sprea­ding, it was obvious­ly (other experts btw, for­got­ten who exact­ly), the patri­arch of the rus­si­an ortho­dox church hol­ding a spell over Putins cra­zy covid angst rid­den mind, that also had come up with con­tin­gen­cy plan­ning, wit­hin a small group of eli­tes. Except that Fio­na Hill belie­ves the oppo­si­te. So Novorus­sia nar­ra­ti­ve is still cra­zy Putin, but RUS nar­ra­ti­ve is alrea­dy cal­cu­la­ting con­tin­gen­ci­es crafting.

Got it? Gre­at. Just make sure to keep the sto­ries strai­ght, of what was still cra­zy Putin, and what was obvious­ly cal­cu­la­ting KGB Putin with con­tin­gen­cy plan­ning in place, other­wi­se you could be con­si­de­red to have been wrong in the past.

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