Current public stances prior to an invasion of Ukraine

22. Februar 2022

Rus­sia denied that they are cur­r­ent­ly sen­ding in troops -

Moscow: Rus­sia is not plan­ning to send tro­ops to eas­tern Ukrai­ne “for now” but will do so in case of a “thre­at”, a for­eign minis­try offi­cial said Tues­day after Moscow’s par­lia­ment rati­fied coope­ra­ti­on deals with Ukraine’s sepa­ra­tist republics.

Depu­ty For­eign Minis­ter And­rei Ruden­ko said the trea­ties inclu­de the pro­vi­si­on of “mili­ta­ry aid” but added that “spe­cu­la­ti­on” on troop deploy­ments should be avoided.

For now, no one is plan­ning to send anything any­whe­re. If the­re is a thre­at, then we will pro­vi­de assi­s­tance in accordance with the rati­fied treaties.”

src: click

Ear­lier today ger­man Chan­cellor Scholz went live to announ­ce that the North­stream 2 pipe­line pro­ject will remain fro­zen until fur­ther notice.

This had been the ECFRs pri­or posi­ti­on on the mat­ter (Euro­pe uni­fied, secu­ri­ty could be the com­mon goal that streng­t­hens the uni­on.).

Scholz being in line with the US stance, as stres­sed in that arti­cle, still did dis­re­gard the dif­fe­rence bet­ween what con­sti­tu­tes a red line. Not repor­ted for over a mon­th, if you fol­lo­wed US friend­ly news sources.


We are rea­dy to take tog­e­ther with our allies all necessa­ry steps. And we have a very clear agree­ment with the United Sta­tes government on gas tran­sit and ener­gy sov­er­eig­n­ty in Euro­pe. We alrea­dy also agreed that we will sup­port Ukrai­ne, that we will fight for the gas tran­sit via Ukrai­ne inten­se­ly and that we will be very strong if this gas tran­sit would be end­an­ge­red. Also, it is abso­lute­ly clear that in a situa­ti­on like this all opti­ons are on the table. Plea­se under­stand that I will not get into any spe­ci­fics, but our ans­wer will be united and decisive.

src: click

Cor­rec­tion: Now that dif­fe­rence stop­ped mat­te­ring, with the offi­cial ger­man line being, that Ger­ma­ny has to rethink ener­gy secu­ri­ty in the euro­pean con­text, and reeva­lua­te based on that.

Rus­sia has assu­red all con­flict part­ners, that gas deli­ve­ries will continue.
src: click

The ECFRs noti­on that Hun­ga­ry remai­ned fair­ly clo­se to the offi­cial EU line on sanc­tions seems to hold true.

Nina Khrush­che­vas posi­ti­on that Putin could have play­ed into chi­nas hands by beco­m­ing eco­no­mi­c­al­ly depen­dent on their gas purcha­ses as well as their eco­no­mic know how on ener­gy extrac­tion pro­jects in Sibe­ria reli­es on the noti­on that Putin (hims­elf 🙂 ) made a mis­cal­cu­la­ti­on in see­ing rus­sia as an equal part­ner in their ven­ture from deco­u­pling from the west, seems oddly reli­ant on rus­sia not having been able to inter­pret signs of public distancing during the cere­mo­nies at the olym­pic games - and the idea, that an eco­no­mic deco­u­pling would be the goal here, first and foremost.

Espe­cial­ly, as the euro­pean com­mis­si­on is repor­ted­ly pres­su­ring for very strong sanc­tions at the moment, which is almost the anti-thesis to this argu­ment (or fit­ting the argu­ment, if you see it as a via­ble pres­su­re point that would chan­ge the situa­ti­on ent­i­re­ly - which is less likely).

Sank­tio­nen der EU-Kommission gehen wei­ter als erwartet

Die EU-Kommission hat nach Infor­ma­tio­nen der Deut­schen Presse-Agentur uner­war­tet weit­rei­chen­de Sank­tio­nen gegen Russ­land vor­ge­schla­gen. Ein am Diens­tag den Mit­glied­staa­ten prä­sen­tier­ter Ent­wurf sieht Anga­ben von Diplo­ma­ten zufol­ge vor, den Han­del mit rus­si­schen Staats­an­lei­hen zu ver­bie­ten, um eine Refi­nan­zie­rung des rus­si­schen Staats zu erschwe­ren. Zudem sol­len hun­der­te Per­so­nen und Unter­neh­men auf die EU-Sanktionsliste kommen.


Das vol­le Arse­nal der Sank­ti­ons­mög­lich­kei­ten wird noch nicht genutzt. Sank­tio­nen gegen den rus­si­schen Ener­gie­sek­tor und Aus­fuhr­ver­bo­te für Hightech-Technologie sind für den Fall vor­be­rei­tet wor­den, dass Russ­land einen Angriff auf die gan­ze Ukrai­ne star­tet. Auch Putin wird vor­aus­sicht­lich noch nicht auf die EU-Sanktionsliste kommen.

Beschlos­sen wer­den müs­sen alle Sank­tio­nen letzt­lich vom EU-Ministerrat [The first mee­ting will take place today at 16:00 MEZ.].

src: click

Scholzs announ­ce­ment to free­ze pro­gress on Nord­stream 2 cer­ti­fi­ca­ti­on, cou­pled with the state­ment that Ger­ma­ny needs to reeva­lua­te their posi­ti­on doesnt seem like Ger­ma­ny is fol­lowing the pro­po­sal of the EU com­mis­si­on in its ful­lest extent just yet.

edit: Wrong on that one - EU sanc­tions are in place now, to exact­ly that extent:

Die EU ste­he geschlos­sen und sei vor­be­rei­tet zügig zu han­deln, so EU-Kommissionspräsidentin Ursu­la von der Ley­en nach Bekannt­ga­be eines EU-Sanktionspakets gegen Russ­land. Die rus­si­sche Vor­ge­hens­wei­se sei inak­zep­ta­ble, Russ­land ver­sto­ße gegen Völ­ker­recht. Mos­kau habe die­se Kri­se mut­wil­lig aus­ge­löst und sei für die Eska­la­ti­on ver­ant­wort­lich. Die EU-Staaten hät­ten nun ihr grü­nes Licht gege­ben für Sank­tio­nen gege­ben, Vor­bild sei­en die Sank­tio­nen gegen Russ­land von 2014 nach der Anne­xi­on der Krim. Es gehe dar­um jene zu tref­fen, die das rus­si­sche Mili­tär unter­stüt­zen und somit die Vor­ge­hens­wei­se in der Ost­ukrai­ne. Und auch de Zugang Russ­lands zu inter­na­tio­na­len Finanz­märk­ten zu beschnei­den. Von der Ley­en begrüßt zudem die Ent­schei­dung Deutsch­lands, die Pipe­line Nord Stream 2 auf Eis zu legen. Es gel­te in Euro­pe in Sachen Ener­gie­ver­sor­gung unab­hän­gi­ger zu wer­den, nicht zuletzt mit­hil­fe der Erneu­er­ba­ren Ener­gien. Man sei bereit, wei­te­re Maß­nah­men zu setz­ten, soll­te die Lage wei­ter eska­lie­ren, so Von der Leyen.

src: click

edit2: Accord­ing to an Inter­view with Rein­hard Büti­ko­fer, the decisi­on was not as unani­mous as pre­vious­ly indi­ca­ted, but with Ger­ma­ny firm­ly on the side of impo­sing the pre­an­noun­ced sanc­tions to their ful­lest extent.

The ent­i­re pie­ce of repor­ting is worth to be watched:

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