So how about a riskier economic future worldwide?

01. März 2022

The argu­ment made here reli­es on several fac­tors that aren’t fixed. The speed and relia­bi­li­ty of tech­no­lo­gi­cal inno­va­ti­on, that isnt able to remain just ite­ra­ti­ve (the per­son in the video is tal­king about it as if it were fixed, or ite­ra­ti­ve).. The argu­ment that peo­p­les cul­tures and housing needs can be made more fle­xi­ble. The argu­ment, that moving peop­le into rural are­as whe­re housing is less in demand to some extend also is good for the envi­ron­ment (urba­niz­a­ti­on usual­ly is kee­ping ener­gy usa­ge low). And the argu­ment that crea­ting tho­se shifts crea­tes “eco­no­mic oppor­tu­ni­ty for ever­yo­ne” (who cant in princip­le rely on (non ite­ra­ti­ve) tech­no­lo­gi­cal advan­ce­ment), and not just ear­ly inves­tors (with lar­ger bund­les of cash in the game).
So to craft a cohe­rent pic­tu­re out of this - one more aspect is added. “Work will be scar­ce in the future.” So hig­her mini­mal wages are paramount.

Not in my generation.

This is how you down­play a lost genera­ti­on as part of a big­ger picture.

Dont worry, you could always dri­ve peop­le into sel­ling others che­a­per forms of housing, or con­sump­ti­on reduc­tion - thats what my genera­ti­on is get­ting paid for. Thats what jour­na­lism part­ly is get­ting payed for (crea­ti­on of that part of jour­na­lism to beco­me a dai­ly seg­ment, while the eco­no­mic deve­lo­p­ment in tho­se sec­tors isn’t that advan­ced yet - may­be, becau­se com­pa­ra­tively jour­na­lism always is and was easy to finance).

So I’ll end with the ARTE con­cept of, euro­pe could be such a nice and cosy place, with con­sump­ti­on reduc­tion, cheap housing, when Boo­mers are gone (still, thats also not just plain sai­ling…), and may­be in a genera­ti­on or two, the free ener­gy infra­st­ruc­tu­re we are buil­ding up will be enough to estab­lish base growth again.

So long, and thanks for all the fish.


24. Februar 2022

(Hat nichts mit dem aktu­el­len Ukrai­ne Kon­flikt zu tun.)

Keep Germany down - Part 2

23. Februar 2022

edit: FOX News und Chomksy ver­fol­gen aktu­ell in etwa die sel­be Aus­le­gung. Wow.

Lau­ra Ing­ra­ham and the for­mer pre­si­dent are bla­ming Biden for Rus­si­an aggression.

src: click

edit2: Chom­sky vor zwei Wochen - This is the most dan­ge­rous cri­sis in the world cur­r­ent­ly, and also the most easy to be sett­led. (If Minks 2 were imple­men­ted.) *seufz*

edit3: Trump bleibt mal dabei. Well, some­what…

Prior to an invasion?

22. Februar 2022

MOSCOW (AP) — The White House on Tues­day began refer­ring to Rus­si­an troop deploy­ments in eas­tern Ukrai­ne as an “inva­si­on” after initi­al­ly hesi­ta­ting to use the term — a red line that Pre­si­dent Joe Biden has said would result in the U.S. levy­ing seve­re sanc­tions against Moscow.

Several Euro­pean lea­ders said ear­lier in the day that Rus­si­an tro­ops have moved into rebel-held are­as in eas­tern Ukrai­ne after Rus­si­an Pre­si­dent Vla­di­mir Putin’s reco­gni­zed their inde­pen­dence — but some indi­ca­ted it was not yet the long-feared, full-fledged invasion.

Later, the White House signal­ed a shift in its own position.

We think this is, yes, the begin­ning of an inva­si­on, Russia’s latest inva­si­on into Ukrai­ne,” said Jon Finer, princi­pal depu­ty natio­nal secu­ri­ty advi­ser. “An inva­si­on is an inva­si­on and that is what is underway.”

The White House deci­ded to begin refer­ring to Russia’s actions as an “inva­si­on” becau­se of the situa­ti­on on the ground, accord­ing to a U.S. offi­cial who spo­ke on the con­di­ti­on of anony­mi­ty to dis­cuss inter­nal deliberations.

The admi­nis­tra­ti­on resis­ted initi­al­ly cal­ling the deploy­ment of tro­ops becau­se the White House wan­ted to see what Rus­sia was actual­ly going to do. After asses­sing Rus­si­an troop move­ments, it beca­me clear it was a new inva­si­on, the offi­cial added.

src: click

Nato Press Con­fe­rence star­ting at 17:00 MEZ.

edit: Nato: May­be not an inva­si­on. Com­bat for­ma­ti­ons of rus­si­an for­ces on satel­li­te images. Last night more tro­ops moved into the Don­bas regi­on. “Yet - it is never too late not to attack”. “Rus­sia has alrea­dy inva­ded Ukrai­ne - back in 2014.”.

Also Nato: Alrea­dy an inva­si­on, becau­se addi­tio­nal rus­si­an toops have moved into the Don­bas, whe­re they alrea­dy had been in a covert capa­ci­ty, but now new con­tin­gents were moved the­re. [Tro­ops did not have mili­ta­ry insignias.]


Putin for­dert Neu­tra­li­tät und Demi­li­ta­ri­sie­rung der Ukraine

Kreml-Chef Wla­di­mir Putin gibt gera­de eine Pres­se­kon­fe­renz. Er for­dert dar­in die Neu­tra­li­tät der Ukrai­ne und die Demi­li­ta­ri­sie­rung des Landes.

src: click

edit3: Nina Khrush­che­va on the decisi­onma­king sur­roun­ding the cur­rent situa­ti­on: click


EU-Kommissionspräsidentin Ursu­la von der Ley­en wird auf CNN dazu befragt, war­um sie expli­zit von kei­ner mili­tä­ri­schen Inva­si­on Russ­lands spricht. Sie bezeich­net Mos­kaus Vor­ge­hen als “ernst­haf­ten Bruch von inter­na­tio­na­lem Recht”. Die Gebie­te wür­den schon seit fast acht Jah­ren besetzt wer­den, Bewe­gung rus­si­scher Trup­pen sehe man der­zeit “nur” dort. Man beob­ach­te Wla­di­mir Putin und sei­ne Hand­lun­gen aber genau, sagt von der Ley­en - ein zwei­tes Sank­ti­ons­pa­ket ste­he schon bereit und wäre “ein enor­mer Schlag gegen Russland”.

src: click

edit5: Biden has rei­tera­ted that an inva­si­on took place, announ­ced fur­ther finan­cial sanc­tions, resta­ted that they would help to uphold ener­gy secu­ri­ty in coor­di­na­ti­on with their part­ners, and that that they would stand and act united with wes­tern allies.

Current public stances prior to an invasion of Ukraine

22. Februar 2022

Rus­sia denied that they are cur­r­ent­ly sen­ding in troops -

Moscow: Rus­sia is not plan­ning to send tro­ops to eas­tern Ukrai­ne “for now” but will do so in case of a “thre­at”, a for­eign minis­try offi­cial said Tues­day after Moscow’s par­lia­ment rati­fied coope­ra­ti­on deals with Ukraine’s sepa­ra­tist republics.

Depu­ty For­eign Minis­ter And­rei Ruden­ko said the trea­ties inclu­de the pro­vi­si­on of “mili­ta­ry aid” but added that “spe­cu­la­ti­on” on troop deploy­ments should be avoided.

For now, no one is plan­ning to send anything any­whe­re. If the­re is a thre­at, then we will pro­vi­de assi­s­tance in accordance with the rati­fied treaties.”

src: click

Ear­lier today ger­man Chan­cellor Scholz went live to announ­ce that the North­stream 2 pipe­line pro­ject will remain fro­zen until fur­ther notice.

This had been the ECFRs pri­or posi­ti­on on the mat­ter (Euro­pe uni­fied, secu­ri­ty could be the com­mon goal that streng­t­hens the uni­on.).

Scholz being in line with the US stance, as stres­sed in that arti­cle, still did dis­re­gard the dif­fe­rence bet­ween what con­sti­tu­tes a red line. Not repor­ted for over a mon­th, if you fol­lo­wed US friend­ly news sources.


We are rea­dy to take tog­e­ther with our allies all necessa­ry steps. And we have a very clear agree­ment with the United Sta­tes government on gas tran­sit and ener­gy sov­er­eig­n­ty in Euro­pe. We alrea­dy also agreed that we will sup­port Ukrai­ne, that we will fight for the gas tran­sit via Ukrai­ne inten­se­ly and that we will be very strong if this gas tran­sit would be end­an­ge­red. Also, it is abso­lute­ly clear that in a situa­ti­on like this all opti­ons are on the table. Plea­se under­stand that I will not get into any spe­ci­fics, but our ans­wer will be united and decisive.

src: click

Cor­rec­tion: Now that dif­fe­rence stop­ped mat­te­ring, with the offi­cial ger­man line being, that Ger­ma­ny has to rethink ener­gy secu­ri­ty in the euro­pean con­text, and reeva­lua­te based on that.

Rus­sia has assu­red all con­flict part­ners, that gas deli­ve­ries will continue.
src: click

The ECFRs noti­on that Hun­ga­ry remai­ned fair­ly clo­se to the offi­cial EU line on sanc­tions seems to hold true.

Nina Khrush­che­vas posi­ti­on that Putin could have play­ed into chi­nas hands by beco­m­ing eco­no­mi­c­al­ly depen­dent on their gas purcha­ses as well as their eco­no­mic know how on ener­gy extrac­tion pro­jects in Sibe­ria reli­es on the noti­on that Putin (hims­elf 🙂 ) made a mis­cal­cu­la­ti­on in see­ing rus­sia as an equal part­ner in their ven­ture from deco­u­pling from the west, seems oddly reli­ant on rus­sia not having been able to inter­pret signs of public distancing during the cere­mo­nies at the olym­pic games - and the idea, that an eco­no­mic deco­u­pling would be the goal here, first and foremost.

Espe­cial­ly, as the euro­pean com­mis­si­on is repor­ted­ly pres­su­ring for very strong sanc­tions at the moment, which is almost the anti-thesis to this argu­ment (or fit­ting the argu­ment, if you see it as a via­ble pres­su­re point that would chan­ge the situa­ti­on ent­i­re­ly - which is less likely).

Sank­tio­nen der EU-Kommission gehen wei­ter als erwartet

Die EU-Kommission hat nach Infor­ma­tio­nen der Deut­schen Presse-Agentur uner­war­tet weit­rei­chen­de Sank­tio­nen gegen Russ­land vor­ge­schla­gen. Ein am Diens­tag den Mit­glied­staa­ten prä­sen­tier­ter Ent­wurf sieht Anga­ben von Diplo­ma­ten zufol­ge vor, den Han­del mit rus­si­schen Staats­an­lei­hen zu ver­bie­ten, um eine Refi­nan­zie­rung des rus­si­schen Staats zu erschwe­ren. Zudem sol­len hun­der­te Per­so­nen und Unter­neh­men auf die EU-Sanktionsliste kommen.


Das vol­le Arse­nal der Sank­ti­ons­mög­lich­kei­ten wird noch nicht genutzt. Sank­tio­nen gegen den rus­si­schen Ener­gie­sek­tor und Aus­fuhr­ver­bo­te für Hightech-Technologie sind für den Fall vor­be­rei­tet wor­den, dass Russ­land einen Angriff auf die gan­ze Ukrai­ne star­tet. Auch Putin wird vor­aus­sicht­lich noch nicht auf die EU-Sanktionsliste kommen.

Beschlos­sen wer­den müs­sen alle Sank­tio­nen letzt­lich vom EU-Ministerrat [The first mee­ting will take place today at 16:00 MEZ.].

src: click

Scholzs announ­ce­ment to free­ze pro­gress on Nord­stream 2 cer­ti­fi­ca­ti­on, cou­pled with the state­ment that Ger­ma­ny needs to reeva­lua­te their posi­ti­on doesnt seem like Ger­ma­ny is fol­lowing the pro­po­sal of the EU com­mis­si­on in its ful­lest extent just yet.

edit: Wrong on that one - EU sanc­tions are in place now, to exact­ly that extent:

Die EU ste­he geschlos­sen und sei vor­be­rei­tet zügig zu han­deln, so EU-Kommissionspräsidentin Ursu­la von der Ley­en nach Bekannt­ga­be eines EU-Sanktionspakets gegen Russ­land. Die rus­si­sche Vor­ge­hens­wei­se sei inak­zep­ta­ble, Russ­land ver­sto­ße gegen Völ­ker­recht. Mos­kau habe die­se Kri­se mut­wil­lig aus­ge­löst und sei für die Eska­la­ti­on ver­ant­wort­lich. Die EU-Staaten hät­ten nun ihr grü­nes Licht gege­ben für Sank­tio­nen gege­ben, Vor­bild sei­en die Sank­tio­nen gegen Russ­land von 2014 nach der Anne­xi­on der Krim. Es gehe dar­um jene zu tref­fen, die das rus­si­sche Mili­tär unter­stüt­zen und somit die Vor­ge­hens­wei­se in der Ost­ukrai­ne. Und auch de Zugang Russ­lands zu inter­na­tio­na­len Finanz­märk­ten zu beschnei­den. Von der Ley­en begrüßt zudem die Ent­schei­dung Deutsch­lands, die Pipe­line Nord Stream 2 auf Eis zu legen. Es gel­te in Euro­pe in Sachen Ener­gie­ver­sor­gung unab­hän­gi­ger zu wer­den, nicht zuletzt mit­hil­fe der Erneu­er­ba­ren Ener­gien. Man sei bereit, wei­te­re Maß­nah­men zu setz­ten, soll­te die Lage wei­ter eska­lie­ren, so Von der Leyen.

src: click

edit2: Accord­ing to an Inter­view with Rein­hard Büti­ko­fer, the decisi­on was not as unani­mous as pre­vious­ly indi­ca­ted, but with Ger­ma­ny firm­ly on the side of impo­sing the pre­an­noun­ced sanc­tions to their ful­lest extent.

The ent­i­re pie­ce of repor­ting is worth to be watched: