The european unity you’ve been waiting for

02. Februar 2022

US incre­a­sed mili­ta­ry sup­port spen­ding and is about to incre­a­se tro­ops sta­tio­ned in Nato mem­ber sta­tes, Gre­at Bri­tain and Poland are now incre­a­sing mili­ta­ry aid and poli­ti­cal sup­port by hol­ding smal­ler sum­mits as well - the Dut­ch Prime Minis­ter will visit Ukrai­ne tomor­row, and for­mer Prime Minis­ter of Swe­den, Carl Bildt, now co-chair of the Euro­pean Coun­cil on For­eign Rela­ti­ons (thats pos­si­ble?) is put­ting out “sca­re tac­tics” tal­king­points as well.

You know you have a genui­ne euro­pean effort going, when the US, Gre­at Bri­tain, Poland, and the Co Chair of the ECFR, are put­ting out the “we stand with Ukrai­ne” rhe­to­ric, and hol­ding spee­ches at sta­te visits in the Ukrai­ne cur­r­ent­ly, oh and dont for­get the Prime Minis­ter of the Nether­lands (It worked! -- on a more serious note: 

The King­dom of the Nether­lands beca­me a foun­ding mem­ber of NATO in 1949 and its unaba­ted com­mit­ment to the inter­na­tio­nal legal order gave it a much lar­ger role in inter­na­tio­nal affairs than its size would nor­mal­ly jus­ti­fy. It also exp­lains why Dut­ch lea­ders let NATO mem­bers­hip, as well as its mem­bers­hip of the Euro­pean Uni­on and the United Nati­ons, shape a lar­ge part of the country’s for­eign poli­cy and why Atlan­ti­cism for­med a cor­ner­stone of its secu­ri­ty poli­cy during the ent­i­re Cold War period.”

src: click)!

The Ukrai­ne mean­while, has the best mas­ter­plan you could think of in this instance - incre­a­se armed for­ces capa­ci­ty by 100.000 units wit­hin three years.

Wait - wit­hin three years? For how long does the coali­ti­on of the wil­ling think this con­flict should be held acti­ve again? Rus­sia basi­cal­ly loo­ses advan­ta­ge in late febru­a­ry… And from then on their nego­tia­ting posi­ti­on gets suc­ces­si­ve­ly worse.

So in three years from now, when the Ukrai­ne final­ly has a stan­ding army of 100.000 units more, and an ener­gy depen­den­cy of about 70% on rus­si­an oil exports… Their eco­no­mic growth will streng­t­hen, so they can final­ly aim at poli­ti­cal or ener­gy inde­pen­dence? Oh no, I for­got, the US will invest hea­vi­ly in green ener­gy infra­st­ruc­tu­re in the Ukrai­ne, and then - they’ll do an infra­st­ruc­tu­re build up with oil and shale­gas ship­ped in from half around the glo­be, becau­se “the pro­spects of buil­ding green infra­st­ruc­tu­re in the Ukrai­ne” are out­right rosy - with them now having built up their army signi­fi­cant­ly, having suf­fe­red oca­tio­nal ener­gy outa­ges and sup­ply shocks (during the transition).

Someo­ne draw me the through­li­ne here again?

Some­thing might be mis­sing from this ana­ly­sis, like - rus­si­an gas on its way to euro­pe goes through which coun­tries (if we pre­su­me Nord Stream 2 stays inactive)?

edit: Oh, Brussels (as the home base of NATO) is ent­i­re­ly impar­ti­al as well, of cour­se - no con­flict of inte­rest whatsoever. (The peace move­ments, inter­view­ed here, his­to­ri­cal­ly are seen as aiding the rus­si­an sphe­re of influ­ence.)

edit2: Short state­ment by the Ukrai­ni­an Pre­si­dent: “We are loo­king for­ward to taking the Krim back [or other ter­ri­to­ries?], and that bila­te­ral tra­de bet­ween the UK and Ukrai­ne incre­a­sed by 60% over the last years is gre­at, and a gre­at suc­cess, and we should talk more about free tra­de [Wait what? So the bila­te­ral tra­de agree­ment beco­mes worth less?]. Dont quo­te me on that who­le com­plex, becau­se I havent sourced mul­ti­ple sources, but thats liter­al­ly what the trans­la­tor said. (Source is The Tele­graph.) Ah - the best of the best as heads of the sta­te again, I see…

Update: El Pais has acces­sed the some of the US and NATO nego­tia­ti­on docu­ments and is publi­shing details. Click and click.

edit: The US is cur­r­ent­ly signa­ling, that Ger­ma­ny is not depen­da­ble. Oh, so sad… did the litt­le trick of “spea­king for the who­le of euro­pe” Vic­to­ria Nuland pul­led off not work… *sniff* So sad. Second source: DW as par­ti­al as ever.

edit2: Whats this? The Ukrai­ne con­fir­ming, that the num­bers of rus­si­an troups near the bor­der are too small for a full sca­le inva­si­on - at this point? click How can that be pos­si­ble? The next step would be them ack­now­led­ging, that Kiev is not likely under risk of being taken by a par­ti­al inva­si­on. The insanity!

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