Prior logic: Russia will stage false flag attacks, to rectify an invasion of Ukraine.
Current logic: Pro russian separatists in eastern Ukraine have seeded videos on social media networks citing riot like conditions to rectify a general mobilization of their forces, that were created two days before those conditions broke out, as indicated by metadata.
So russian military is still at the borders, false flag is not used as official reasoning to enter a war. Russia will support pro russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, and use the credible threat of force to advance military goals to generate political outcomes using separatists and, at this time, likely also covert operations, but not their military in an official capacity.
Practically the same as “Russia will invade the Ukraine using crisis actors as a pretext”. Just not in scope, intensity - and also ultimately not provable to a large extent.
As a result germanys position has become to urge russia to use its influence on separatist groups to deescalate the situation, not a general push to trigger sanctions.
The political decision makers understand the difference. For as long as it is possible.
The general public is pushed to celebrate “US intelligence reports were correct”, despite - them not having been used as a pretext for war.
Fun how that works.
The nuances of not going to war.
