An wen soll ich den jetzt Reachbacken, und wo soll ich meinen Spezialisten aus der Taurus Einheit hinschicken? Zum Hersteller, oder doch direkt in die Ukraine?
Ok, also die Vollversion des Leaks macht definitiv Laune.
Frank?
Frank, jetzt sag doch mal, ich red grad mit den Briten, die machen ihre ganze QC und das Reachback direkt über Großbritannien, obwohl sie es gestern noch in der Presse dementiert haben.
Frank?!
Frank, was sagst du denn nichts, Frank?
Frank Gräfe.
Frank, ich hab doch schon mit der Frau Friedberger gesprochen
- und wenn es nachher um den Einsatz geht, dann wäre tatsächlich die Empfehlung dass wenigstens die ersten Mission [deutsches Bundeswehrplural für das englische “Missions”] unterstützend durch uns erfolgen werden.
Frank?
Grüße an Alpbach bitte, das nächste Mal vielleicht auch die Regine Friedberger einladen, die macht auf Linked In eh schon seit 8 Monaten “Gratulation Herr General” postings bei Beiträgen der OCCAR (Organisation for Joint Armament Co-operation) - also noch mehr betteln um einen Liegestuhl in Alpbach geht ja nicht mehr… Jetzt erbarmt euch doch endlich.
edit: Die österreichische Presse (die Presse) hat in dem Zusammenhang noch was für Tim und Struppi Fans vorbereitet:
Nach der tödlichen Katastrophe rund um einen Hilfskonvoi wollen die USA die Zivilbevölkerung wie berichtet im umkämpften Gazastreifen mit Hilfsgütern aus der Luft versorgen. Man werde sich in den kommenden Tagen mit Jordanien und anderen zusammentun und weitere Lebensmittel und Hilfsgüter aus der Luft abwerfen, hat US-Präsident Joe Biden am Freitag im Weißen Haus angekündigt.
Was da wohl Greta dazu sagt. Ich bitte um ein Interview.
Um fair und ausgewogen zu bleiben, gleich noch eins mit der Israellobby dranhängen, die die Grenzübergänge für Hilfslieferungen geschlossen hält.
Days until the german speaking news media will tell the public:
Time until hell freezes over + 1 day
Willkommen in der westlichen Wertegesellschaft.
Der Rauscher hat sich seinerzeit auch dran aufgegeilt und besonders hartes Vorgehen gefordert. Konsequenzen?
Ich bitte sie, wir sind hier in der westlichen Wertegesellschaft!
edit: More on Al Jazeera:
edit2: Die UN ist mittlerweile bei “es gäbe vernünftige Gründe für die Annahme, dass es während des Angriffs der Hamas auf Israel am 7. Oktober an mehreren Orten zu sexueller Gewalt, einschließlich Vergewaltigungen, gekommen sei”. Was weiterhin fehlt ist das “systemic” (systematisch). Siehe: click
edit: Ah devil in the detail again, the UN team didnt do their own investigation, they copied it from Israeli army affiliates:
Damals ging also erst einmal “nur” die Artillery Munition aus und die Ukraine musste deshalb (*hust*) ihren Angriff abbrechen…
Das erste Mal als sich das Narrativ gedreht hat, übrigens. Siehe (selber Artikel):
The problem is, Ukraine’s troops need more rounds than their allies can currently give them.
Without ammunition, Ukraine won’t just have to stop trying to recapture land: it won’t be able to stop Russia’s attacks and could ultimately lose this war.
Dieser verschlagene Russe schon wieder, hat der doch während der Sommeroffensive der Ukraine, als Verteidiger, deutlich weniger artillery rounds abgefeuert als der Ukrainer!
Moment, werfen wir doch noch mal einen Blick auf die Grafik… Current ist January 8, 2024.
Der Russe hat in der Defensive im Sommer nur halb so viel artillery shells abgefeuert wie in der Offensive jetzt im Jänner…
Faktorn wir das doch mal in die Ukrainischen Lagebestände mit rein…
Also Soll (unsere Lager sind für die Defensive optimal gefüllt) gleich 100.
Angriffsphase = +100% zu soll, also 200
davon minus 80% weil Lager so viel leerer als damals = 40
Ukraine also laut ihrer eigenen Propaganda bei 40% der normalen Lagerkapazitäten - ergo, die Munition geht aus.
Wir müssen Städte aufgeben, weil die Munition geht aus.
Drei Monate nach Ende der Offensive.
Frage, wie schnell kamen denn da so die Waffenlieferungen an? Kompletter Turnover der gesamten gelagerten Munition alle drei Monate? Wobei weniger als drei Monate, denn im Jänner hatten sie noch 40% von Soll. Laut ihrer eigenen Propaganda. Und Ende Februar musste sie deswegen bereits Städte aufgeben!
Komm, Propaganda hat aber immer noch niemand entdeckt.
Also am Allerwenigsten wir von den investigativ recherchierenden Qualitätsmedien.
29.02.2024:
“The enemy continues active offensive actions in many areas of the frontline. The situation is particularly tense in the Avdiivka and Zaporizhzhia sectors,” Syrskyi said on the Telegram messaging app.
He said Russian assault units were trying to break through the Ukrainian defenses and capture the settlements of Tonenke, Orlivka, Semenivka, Berdychi and Krasnohorivka.
Syrskyi, who visited troops on the eastern front, said some commanders had revealed certain shortcomings in their “situational awareness and assessment of the enemy,” which directly affected the sustainability of defense in certain areas.
“I took all measures to remedy the situation on the ground, with the allocation of additional ammunition and material resources, as well as the necessary reserves,” Syrskyi said.
Uns geht die Munition aus, da haben wir unseren schlechtesten Kommandanten vor Ort, denen mit den gravierendsten Fehleinschätzungen gleich noch mal mehr Munition alloziiert.
Wir verstehen uns, oder?
Diese Gesellschaft ist das absolut grotesk und abartigst Allerletzte.
Haben wir da vielleicht noch gutes Kompromat rumliegen mit dem sich Deutschland selbst belasten könnte?
Aber natürlich.
Die Russen haben da wieder mal wen abgehört…
Die deutsche Luftwaffe wurde abgehört, sie wollen die Krim-Brücke mit Raketen angreifen + überlegen, wie man Deutschland in den Krieg involvieren kann, ohne dabei aufzufliegen. Deutschland will und wird einen Weltkrieg auslösen. Zum fucking dritten mal. pic.twitter.com/UBvaUNK2HG
…wenn man aktuell aufgrund der Nawalny Geschichte Assange nicht “in seinen mehr oder minder gesicherten Tot in einer geschlossenen Anstalt” in den US ausliefern kann.
Nun, man verschiebt den Schiedsspruch der Anhörung beim letzten möglichen Termin vor der Auslieferung Assanges.
Dann sind dann nicht mehr so viele Leute vorm Gericht, und auch nicht mehr so viele EU Abgeordnete, und vielleicht auch nicht mehr die UN-Sonderberichterstatterin für Folter, …
Achja, und im Gerichtsaal nebenan in dem die Verhandlung vor Journalisten live übertragen werden sollte, fällt dann natürlich die Mikrophonübertragung aus, da kann man leider nichts machen.
Ich meine - wer kennt das nicht…
“Ein Datum für die Verkündigung der Entscheidung ob die Berufung zugelassen wird, wurde nicht genannt.”
Naja, man hat ja noch Jahre Zeit fürs in der Schwebe halten…
edit: Es gibt aber natürlich auch wieder gute Nachrichten:
G20-Treffen gescheitert – Keine Einigung auf gemeinsame Abschlusserklärung
Die Finanzminister und Notenbankchefs konnten sich nicht auf gemeinsame Ziele einigen. Stattdessen sollte es nur eine Zusammenfassung der Gespräche geben
The good thing about Piers Morgan is, he is entirely void of any critical thought, so he always ends up acting as a sponge for any propaganda narrative that ever crept up out there - so this is a showpiece on how to become a star journalist - by working entirely off of US propaganda scripting.
Here are all the questions Morgan asks during his recent Mearsheimer interview:
“Explain to me the state of the world right now, how worried should we be?”
Answer: I think pretty worried. [Great way to start an interview on youtube, holds the viewers attention and everything!]
“I want to ask you about two of your positions, and correct me if they’re not your positions, but I think I’m right in saying that you draw a distinction between the merits of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and as opposed to China’s potential Invasion and takeover of Taiwan. In the case of one you think america should intervene, but in the case of Ukraine you don’t think America should be gettin involved, what is the ideological difference here, for those who are watching from the sidelines.”
Answer: There is no ideological difference, it is a difference in relative importance to challenging the US role as the worlds hegemon. China is a great power rivaling the US, Russia not so much.
“If you take your interpretation of Putins motivation [Nato enlargement], I mean I would take issue with that, because I think Is a former KGB guy who never thought the Soviet Union should be broken up, he would love to restore it as much as he could, he sees himself as a Kind of modern day Zar, I think he has an extraordinary disregard for human life, I think he’s become a sort of mafia boss, running a gangster country, and I think he just took his opportunity to illegally invade a sovereign democratic country whether he likes it or not, that’s what Ukraine is, and if the West allows him to get away with this, I would not be remotely confident that he would not want to then stomp his way through into other countries, so why are you confident he wouldnt want to do that.”
Answer: There has been no factual proof for your opinion whatsoever. Neither in what he said, nor in what he wrote. Ever. He never said that. He never indicated that. He never played with that image.
“With all respect professor, why would you believe Vladimir Putin if he told you what the weather was, I mean the guy is a serial liar [he is not, in the past, all war pretexts excluded, russia was always exceptionally transparent in their foreign policy directives - including why they went to war this time around, that they would go to war about this, just not “when”], I judge people by their actions. All I’m seeing is a russian dictator, illegally invading a sovereign democratic country and seizing large junks of it, causing absolute mayham and I see to my surprise a lot of american commentators, particular on the conservative side, who seem fairly relaxed about letting Putin keep the land he’s stolen, and that would never have happened in conservative circles 30 year ago, I’m kind of mystified, why you would allow Putin to win.”
Answer: There is no evidence to support your view, that Putin is out on an imperialistic endeavor.
[The actual answer here being, that Mr. Morgan might find it hard to deal with the fact, that 30 years ago Britain was an imperialistic power, rectifying its wars with bullshit like “public image” and honor, but in reality this is not why wars are fought. Because all of that is propaganda. Don’t tell Mr. Morgan though.]
Answer: No Piers, the question is why did he invade Georgia and why is he at war with Ukraine? It all goes back to the 2008 Nato summit, where Nato membership was set as the target for those two countries.
“Well, you are putting a lot of good faith into Putin, taking him at his word [because, yes thats mostly how foreign relations work, countries usually dont lie for 16 years to then do exactly what they had warned their adversaries all those 16 years about to “become zars”], I would argue that what Putin has done in the last few years, illustrates exactly why it was the correct decision to try to move countries like Ukraine into Nato, because they were always going to get attacked and invaded by Putin, if he thought he could get away with it [this is not how and why wars are started (because someone personally thought they’d get away with it)] and what concerns me no is that I think he is going to get away with it, because I can see the american support so absolutely crucial to hold russia off, or even for them to prevail is disappearing, because of the conservative right is putting huge pressure to stop any funding going to ukraine which I again think is a real sea change in the conservative rights view of people like Vladimir Putin.”
Answer: Ukraine is losing and even the 60 billion would not make a difference in that. [Because its manpower, Artillery shells, and air superiority they are lacking and never getting back in a war of attrition, where those three elements are key].
“But the truth is, if Ukraine would have kept their nuclear weapons, I dont think Putin would have done this, and secondly if Ukraine had been fast-tracked into Nato I dont think Putin would have done this. He would not have attacked another Nato country, knowing that there is THATAGREEMENT, THATIFYOUATTACKONEOFTHEMTHEYALLWILLATTACKYOUBACK, so in a way you could say it is a chicken and the egg problem.”
Answer: Yes I agree with you that Putin wouldnt have attacked, but this isnt how it turned out is it?
[Actual answer: This is hardly a chicken and the egg problem, if both sides openly told each other and the public what would happen, and Nato chose to expand anyhow, against Macrons and Merkels wishes, because we absolutely need a war in europe, and its so very fucking convenient to blame that on “principles of open door policies that need to be uphold” WHENYOUAREEXPANDINGNATOFORTHEFIFTH (edit: sorry, I factchecked myself, turns out - tenth) TIME. Also that Putin was worried because of rapid economic developent in Ukraine, because of the EU membership is something you cant even try to prove in any fucking way. Its made up conjecture, not backed up by any economical figures beforehand - so unless you know that for sure, because you have an insight into what caused that decision to be made internally its fucking Propaganda. But stupid public likes narrative! Also there is the tight integration of the EU into Nato, that also comes into play, when joining the EU is on the table, because there are bilateral defense agreements that trigger, that always include Nato forces, which then - for “readiness” start to deploy troops in your country -- you know the stuff, that never gets picked up in public debate for a reason…]
“Ann Applebaum called you a usefull idiot though!”
Answer: Her predictions never come true, mine do. She has to attack ad hominem.
“I watched Putin’s interview with Tucker Carlson the other day and he talked about this [the Ukraine having rejected a peace offer at the pre war lines of contact with neutrality as the only demand from the russian side (as well as an agreement about the number of arms that can be stationed in the Ukraine)] and blamed Boris Johnson for sqandering the peace deal telling Selenskyj not to do any deal with Putin, but I watched Putin and I saw somebody who’s for for example - his half hour rambling answer to to Carson’s first question giving his version of the history uh was so completely skewed to one way of thinking, to Russia’s way of thinking and the rest of his his general demeanor in that interview suggested to me a narcissist a quite delusional guy uh a pretty nasty piece of work certainly not somebody that I would instinctively want to trust, did you watch the interview and did you feel comfortable about absolutely trusting what Putin says”
Answer: Are you an idiot, Morgan? Are you asking me what I feel? Well not really - but I the blogger, am ending this here, simply because of concerns about my blood pressure.
Later on Mearsheimer explains that Stoltenberg now has publicly declared for the third time, this week, that he (who will be gone (replaced) in about half a year) thinks russia attacked, because it wanted to prevent Ukraine becoming a member of Nato. But Piers still wants to ask if you feel that you’d trust Putin, trust Putin.
Which coincidently was the ukrainian propaganda line on March 20th, when the Selenskyj government had to signal to the US, that they were not becoming a neutral country:
But you’d never know, from watching Bumblefuck Idiotfaces videos. I mean its just Piers Morgan, but when you get shown how FUCKINGIDIOTIC the western “why we need this war” narrative is condensed in a one hour time period, it just underlines how the Propaganda works so well.
Putin is just another Hitler hellbent on getting his Poland as “Lebensraum” for his shrinking population, in a country with an even faster shrinking population, and it was such a pitty, that we didnt expand Nato faster, because he would always have done that, and we could have prevented it.
Then why didn’t Putin annex the Donbas, when the leaders of the separation movement asked for it and instead went with Minsk 2 first, which he believed in as a compromise, preventing a war?
Well --- you know, he violated Minsk 2 you know…
The same Misk 2 ukrainian propagandists on Al Jazeera will now tell you was “null and void, because it was forced upon the people of Ukraine by its ouside partners!”
Why cant we deindustrialize Europe for longer says the independent conservative commentator from the UK, bringing one “pax britannia” argument, well “pax americana” argument after the other. 30 years ago, we would have shown him, this would never have been even a question! Because how dare Putin, and we have a face to keep!
Ok. War ends in 6 years as planned by Wasley Clark?
In the Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom posting, I alluded to the promise of higher pensions in Crimea under the russian occupation, which was partly why Ukraines eastern demographic (which is also older) voted for upholding economic ties with russia.
Turns out, in reality there are huge caveats with this “view”:
Socio-economic development
Before the annexation, Russia has promised Crimeans an increase in wages and pensions. In 2015, the average wage in Crimea increased by 68 euros (up to 330 euros) compared to previous Ukrainian wages. Over the next period, the average earnings of Crimeans increased to 452 euros, but they have declined to 423 euros since 2020. The modal wage (received by the vast majority of the working population) is about 300 euros. Almost 18% of Crimeans receive a wage of less than 172 euros.
The situation with pensions is similar: the average pension was slowly growing during the occupation period and reached 166 euros in 2021. However, this figure does not correspond to the real situation due to the significant number of retired military who have actively settled on the peninsula after the annexation and have a significantly higher pension. So, the real pension coverage for most Crimean pensioners is not more than 130 euros.
Along with the transition to Russian wages and pensions, Crimea applies Russian prices for goods and services that are significantly higher than the Ukrainian ones. Accordingly, prices increased by 43% (for products – by 53%) in 2014, and by another 28% (by 23% for products) in 2015. In the following years, inflation rates slowed to 5-7% per year, but in 2021, food inflation was 11% in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and 14% in Sevastopol.
Russia has invested significant funds in Crimea (more than 17 billion euros during the occupation period), but most of this money was spent on large-scale infrastructure projects (“Crimean Bridge”, Taurida highway between Kerch and Sevastopol) and the military industry.
src: click (University of Turku, Finland (2022))
see also:
From Russia with love
While the Crimean economy has done well on a surface level since its annexation, the region has received more than a little bit of help. Huge subsidies from Moscow have been a mainstay since 2014, fluctuating between $1bn and $2.7bn per annum (see Fig 1). These figures are not necessarily putting a significant strain on Russia’s economy, which is the world’s 12th-largest by nominal GDP, but they do appear to be contributing to a slowdown (see Fig 2).
Just a few months after Crimea formally rejoined the Russian Federation, Moscow launched a programme called the Socioeconomic Development in the Republic of Crimea and the City of Sevastopol. The initiative has a budget of RUB 669.6bn ($10.06bn), 95.9 percent of which comes directly from Russia’s federal budget.
Gut, vor zwei Tagen wurde auf allen Seiten noch von fünf mal mehr Toten gesprochen, aber jetzt wo Mediazona plötzlich russische Tote um den Faktor 5 niedriger einschätzt als US Senatoren, sind die ukrainischen Toten laut Selenskyj um den Faktor 2.3 auf 31.000 gesunken.
Was enorm erstaunlich ist, denn ein unabhängiges ukrainisches Projekt hat in der Vergangenheit bereits 47.000 getötete ukrainische Soldaten gelistet, deren Validität durch Mediazona in Zufallsstichproben verifiziert werden konnte.
Dann stelle im Februar 2024 fest, dass du 60% drüber bist, und korrigier dann deine EIGNEN Opferzahlen auf dem Papier um 34% nach unten - also gegenüber dem was bereits durch open Source Quellen bestätigt wurde, DIENICHTMALHOCHRECHNEN!
(Mediazona hat eine Hochrechnung veröffentlicht. Dh. 50.000 gezählt, und 75.000 hochgerechnet.)
Setzen wir den Faktor (+50%) bei den gezählten getöteten ukrainischen Soldaten des unabhängigen ukrainischen Portals an, kommen wir auf 70.500 getötete Ukrainer (Hochrechnung) von denen Selenksyj heute 31.000 gemeldet hat. Nice.
Sauber rechnen mit dem ukrainischen Staatsoberhaupt.
Wasley Clark “I believe this is a war that lasts another 6 years, but then the Ukraine can win!”. Fuck you.
Second off:
Mr. I’m Responsible for the Messaging “We need to tell western populations, that this is about the western world and western values to get them on board”. Fuck you
Third off:
Mr. “I’m an entrepreneur, and the more I think about this, I think we are going to win this in the long run”. Fuck you. Why? Later.
Fourth off:
Media: “Russia is trying to play the long game here - Putin thinks he can win in the long run!” Yeah, narrative fits like a glove, dont you think?
Also fuck you.
Because of what “another 6 years” means. (Thats basically contingency planning for another failed offensive.)
Also fuck you for “I think about the Ukraine war as ending in Taiwan.”
Fuck you especially for that, Wasley Clark.
To the people that are dumb enough to fall for that - please do.
I scream in agony, each and every day.
(Also word to the russians - I’d not plan on the ukrainian Artillery capability to “catastrophically fail five months from now”, like that one guy said into the microphone on stage - because “he wanted to be very open and helpful”. Actually, plan for the opposite being the case.
Just a hunch.)
edit: On second thought - just listen to Wasley Clark, guys…
General thinks you need 500 aircraft, and that a tactical nuke is probably likely to be droped on Ukraine in the upcoming 6 years the fighting will still prolong - and that you need to toughen up and face this as Ukraine. Because, and I quote “You are fighting the battle for western civilization . We can finish it here.”
Just make that your main messaging towards european political leaders from now on and see where it takes you..
Also that reliance on “combined tactical forces” seems like a disaster in the making - because of new capabilities in the electronic warfare space. Disrupting just one class of military devices seems far more likely to become a factor going forward. So to amplify power - sure, but to depend on that structurally? Well - I’m totally out of my depth here, so -- seems wrong… 😉
edit: John E. Herbst (former (2003-2006) US Ambassador to Ukraine):
“The problem we have in the framing of the war in Ukraine is that we frame it as the war in Ukraine, therefore it is perceived especially by people in the United States who are not focusing on foreign policy, that this is not an american [western] problem. If we frame it precisely - we have an aggressive nuclear super power, who has identified the United States as is principle adversary if not its enemy, and every day senior russian officials, Narishkin, Putin, the russian media Samaljov [Solowjow?], Simonjan, talk about the nasty things they want to do to the United States, if we understand that this is a problem about containing an aggressive Kremlin, not a problem of helping the poor Ukrainians, the response would be very different. We need a policy of containment of an aggressive Russia, which is actually going to set the way for a more aggressive China. We frame it that way, we can win this fight.
[…]
Wednesday the Atlantic council organized a conference advocating containment of russia, as an american policy. Our leaders have to start to point this out every day. The white house has to do this, our leaders in europe have to do this. If repetition is a way to get this accross, we do that - we can change the debate, thank you!”
Yeah, fuck you. For that lie you’re pandering, but I’m sure the german news media will be very willing to accommodate and follow your feverdreams - and just fuck over the public perception, like they did for the past two years.
Fuck you for the suggestion to take russian TV propaganda as the template for reality.
Fuck you.
edit: In more “Wait, what?!” news: According to the Centre of Eastern Studies, Russia blew up the Nova Kachowka dam, so the Ukrainians “could not bring over Himars to target the Kertsch Bridge from the other side of the river”.
Yeah, about that… yeah…
Wanna draw lines from Robotyne?
Maybe rethink that, before it becomes part of our history books… Thanks.
Propaganda hat aber schon wieder niemand entdeckt, was will man machen…
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