The aftermath

08. April 2022

You’­ve heard of Bucha? You’­ve heard or see­en not­hing yet!

Situa­ti­on in Boro­dian­ka is “much sca­ri­er” than Bucha, Zelen­sky says

Ukrai­ni­an Pre­si­dent Volo­dym­yr Zelen­sky said work is under­way to clear rub­ble in the town of Boro­dian­ka and the situa­ti­on the­re is “much sca­ri­er” than that in Bucha.

Spea­king at his night­ly address on Thurs­day night, Zelen­sky said, “So far, the Rus­si­an sta­te and the Rus­si­an mili­ta­ry are the grea­test thre­at on the pla­net to free­dom, to human secu­ri­ty, to the con­cept of human rights as such. After Bucha, this is alrea­dy obvious,” he said, adding that work to clear rub­ble in Boro­dian­ka has begun. 

“It’s much sca­ri­er the­re. More vic­tims of Rus­si­an inva­ders,” Zelen­sky said.
The Ukrai­ni­an pre­si­dent said simi­lar atro­ci­ties were seen in Mariu­pol as well.

“What will hap­pen when the world learns the who­le truth about what the Rus­si­an mili­ta­ry did in Mariu­pol? The­re, on almost every street, is what the world saw in Bucha and other towns in the Kyiv regi­on after the with­dra­wal of Rus­si­an tro­ops. The same cru­el­ty. The same ter­ri­ble cri­mes,” he said.

Zelen­sky sug­gested that the atro­ci­ties com­mit­ted by Rus­si­an for­ces would be used as pro­pa­gan­da. CNN can­not inde­pendent­ly veri­fy the­se claims.

“More and more infor­ma­ti­on is com­ing in that Rus­si­an pro­pa­gan­dists are pre­pa­ring, so to speak, a ‘mir­ror respon­se’ to the shock of all nor­mal peop­le from what they saw in Bucha. They are going to show the vic­tims in Mariu­pol as if they were not kil­led by the Rus­si­an mili­ta­ry, but by Ukrai­ni­an defen­ders of the city,” Zelen­sky said, “to do this, the occu­p­iers collect corp­ses on the streets, take them out. And can be used else­whe­re in accordance with the deve­lo­ped pro­pa­gan­da scenarios.”

Zelen­sky said every mur­der in Ukrai­ne will be inves­ti­ga­ted and every loo­ter, rapist and mur­de­rer will be found and that after what the world saw hap­pe­ning in Bucha, it is clear Rus­sia “does not obey” human rights.”

He cal­led the UN Gene­ral Assembly’s decisi­on to sus­pend Rus­sia from the Human Rights Coun­cil “fair and logi­cal” and thank­ed the coun­try that sup­por­ted the UNGA decision.

“Perhaps Rus­sia will chan­ge its atti­tu­de to human rights, but at this point in time it’s not hap­pe­ning,” Zelen­sky said.

src:

Inte­res­ting paragraph:

More and more infor­ma­ti­on is com­ing in that Rus­si­an pro­pa­gan­dists are pre­pa­ring, so to speak, a “mir­ror respon­se” to the shock of all nor­mal peop­le from what they saw in Bucha. They are going to show the vic­tims in Mariu­pol as if they were kil­led not by the Rus­si­an mili­ta­ry, but by the Ukrai­ni­an defen­ders of the city. To do this, the occu­p­iers collect corp­ses on the streets, take them out and can use them else­whe­re in accordance with the ela­bo­ra­ted pro­pa­gan­da scenarios.

We are dealing with inva­ders who have not­hing human left. To jus­ti­fy their own kil­lings, they take the mur­de­red peop­le sim­ply as sce­ne­ry, as pro­pa­gan­da props. And this is a sepa­ra­te war crime, for which each of the pro­pa­gan­dists will be held accountable.

--

Ukrai­ni­an offi­cial: 26 bodies found under rub­ble of two houses in Borodianka
From CNN’s Hira Humayun

In the town of Boro­dian­ka, 26 bodies were found under the rub­ble of two houses accord­ing to Ukraine’s Pro­se­cu­tor Gene­ral Iry­na Vene­dik­to­va in a tele­vi­sed address on Thursday. 

She said the town was hit by Rus­si­an airstrikes lea­ding to a num­ber of civi­li­an casualties.

“Two big houses have been dis­mant­led. Found 26 bodies. And the­se are only two houses. Atro­ci­ties are in fact a legal term that com­bi­nes three cri­mes: war cri­mes, cri­mes against huma­ni­ty and geno­ci­de. I think we need to get used to this term. This is a legal term in inter­na­tio­nal cri­mi­nal law. So Boro­dian­ka is an illus­tra­ti­ve examp­le,” she said.

src: click

Also, it was sug­gested (cant remem­ber by whom any­mo­re, but I’ve read it befo­re), that the fol­lowing was a diver­si­on attempt of the rus­si­an side - to move the news nar­ra­ti­ve off of the atrocities.

Rus­si­an offi­cial accu­ses Ukrai­ne of chan­ging deman­ds sin­ce the 2 sides met in Istanbul
From CNN’s Ulia­na Pavlo­va and Mar­tin Goillandeau

Rus­si­an For­eign Minis­ter Ser­gey Lav­rov speaks during a news con­fe­rence in Moscow on Thursday.
Rus­si­an For­eign Minis­ter Ser­gey Lav­rov speaks during a news con­fe­rence in Moscow on Thurs­day. (Alex­an­der Zemlianichenko/Pool/AP)
On Thurs­day, Rus­si­an For­eign Minis­ter Ser­gey Lav­rov accu­sed Ukrai­ni­an nego­tia­tors of chan­ging the most important pro­vi­si­ons that both sides had agreed upon during Russia-Ukraine talks in Istan­bul last month.

Lav­rov said that a draft agree­ment pre­sen­ted on Wed­nes­day by Ukrai­ni­an nego­tia­tors “show­ed a depar­tu­re from the most important pro­vi­si­ons fixed at the mee­ting in Istan­bul,” adding that the new Ukrai­ni­an draft agree­ment did not inclu­de an ear­lier pro­po­sal by Kyiv to exclu­de Cri­mea and Sebas­to­pol from the future secu­ri­ty gua­ran­tees Ukrai­ne is demanding.

Lav­rov also said Ukrai­ni­ans sug­gested that “the pro­blems of Cri­mea and Don­bas should be brought to the mee­ting of the pre­si­dents of Rus­sia and Ukrai­ne,” a pro­po­sal deemed “unac­cep­ta­ble” by Rus­sia, as Ukrai­ni­an Pre­si­dent Volo­dym­yr Zelen­sky has repeated­ly sta­ted that such a mee­ting is pos­si­ble only after the ces­sa­ti­on of hostilities.

“At the next sta­ge, the Ukrai­ni­an side will cer­tain­ly ask for the with­dra­wal of tro­ops and will put for­ward new pre­con­di­ti­ons,” Lav­rov said.

Accord­ing to the Rus­si­an For­eign Minis­ter, the Ukrai­ni­an side has also chan­ged its stance on a pro­vi­si­on that Moscow could oppo­se any future mili­ta­ry maneu­vers invol­ving for­eign for­ces in Ukrai­ni­an territory.

Lav­rov said that the ina­bi­li­ty to find a nego­tia­ted agree­ment with Ukrai­ne “demons­tra­tes the true inten­ti­ons of Kyiv, its line to drag on and even make the nego­tia­ti­ons fail, rejec­ting the agree­ments that had been found.”

“We see this as a mani­fes­ta­ti­on of the fact that the Kyiv regime is con­trol­led by Washing­ton and its allies, who are pushing Pre­si­dent Zelen­sky to con­ti­nue hos­ti­li­ties,” he added.
Lav­rov said the Rus­si­an dele­ga­ti­on would “con­ti­nue the nego­tia­ti­on pro­cess,” pro­mo­ting its draft agree­ment, which accord­ing to Lav­rov “clear­ly and in full, sets out all the key posi­ti­ons and demands.”

Lav­rov did not reve­al the details of that draft agreement.

src: click
Regard­less, in its­elf thats worth to be acknowledged.

Russian ‘evidence’

07. April 2022

First they are showing the video­state­ment of the mayor of Bucha from the 31st of March.

Second ‘image pro­of’ (first image actual­ly, first image pro­of was a video) pro­du­ced in the pre­sen­ta­ti­on can not be found via tineye or a goog­le rever­se image search.

Accord­ing to the rus­si­an repre­sen­ta­ti­ve to the United nati­ons, Vas­si­ly Neben­zia, he then is pre­sen­ting a (short) video cap­tu­red by the ukrai­ni­an natio­nal guard, of Bucha, pos­ted on April 2nd, that depicts ukrai­ni­an for­ces ent­e­ring Bucha, not showing any dead bodies in the streets. The video then also would con­tain the ukrai­ni­an mili­ta­ry inter­viewing several peop­le in the town, not one of which would be men­tio­ning a mas­sa­c­re, or mass killings.

[Atten­ti­on, I can’t veri­fy the date of cap­tu­re, or that Bucha is the town depic­ted in the video. Nor can I rule out, that foo­ta­ge was cherrypicked.]

Opi­ni­on: The evi­dence is not very con­clu­si­ve. Nor is it empirical.

Neben­zia is also sta­ting that more ‘infor­ma­ti­on’ would be coming/being released in the Secu­ri­ty coun­cil mee­ting on April 5th. I’ve still not scree­n­ed the full length ver­si­on of that.

edit: Wat­ched the one minu­te video packa­ge that was part of the Zelen­skyys Secu­ri­ty coun­cil speech. And it was effec­ti­ve. Warning: Images are very gra­phic. Which is also, why I will not pro­vi­de a time­code this time.

Groups of peop­le which are depic­ted in Bucha:
- 20 (or so) peop­le dead in the streets.
- Part­ly buried fami­ly of four. (Might have been refe­ren­ced by the eye wit­ness in the polish TV inter­view (unsu­re). Going by descrip­ti­ons, this was one of the loca­ti­ons the ZDF repor­ter visited.)
- Back alley with 8 peop­le kil­led (This was refe­ren­ced in the polish TV inter­view.)
- Group of at least four vic­tims at an unknown loca­ti­on in a later sta­te of decomposition.
- Group of at least four peop­le in what seems like a cel­lar with their hands see­min­gly zip­tied behind their backs, dead.
- Three peop­le lying in a yard, dead.
- Bur­ned remains of a corp­se (might refer to the examp­le of a raped women who was then bur­ned in an attemp­ted cover up, that was refer­red to in two speeches)
- Two other corp­ses, one bur­ned at unknown locations
- Ano­t­her group of at least two, pro­bab­ly more bur­ned corpses
- A mass gra­ve with about a dozen body­bags showing

I now under­stand the remarks of the ZDF repor­ter, that you dont just sta­ge that. That you can’t. Vis­cer­al­ly - I get it.

Also, com­pa­red to that, what RT is cur­r­ent­ly doing (from me watching about 5 seconds of one of their news seg­ments on But­cha - on you­tube, when I was scree­ning Vot-Tak.tv vide­os to see, if I could find the first eye wit­ness account on video (I cant - but the ori­gi­nal wri­te­down of the inter­view is lin­ked in here as well as in the pre­vious pos­ting on the topic)), name­ly to have an ‘expert’ give out a state­ment that two of the corp­ses on the street lying next to each other would have to have been kil­led on dif­fe­rent days, becau­se of dif­fe­rent decom­po­si­ti­on sta­tes, is in its own sepa­ra­te cate­go­ry of not­hing­ness. It just doesnt even compare.

For what its worth, I end with Antó­nio Guterres:

“We are not say­ing that this spe­ci­fic inci­dent is a war crime, we can’t estab­lish that yet, that is why the­re needs to be detail­ed foren­sic examination…Justice and accoun­ta­bi­li­ty take time; what is important is that this work is under­ta­ken and con­ti­nues to ensu­re accoun­ta­bi­li­ty going forward.”

src: click

edit: I reached the part of the video, whe­re Neben­zia gives his coun­ter­points. They were:

- The corp­ses werent the­re right after the with­dra­wal of the rus­si­an mili­ta­ry, which would be con­fir­med by “several vide­os” [This should refer to the two vide­os shown a day ear­lier in the video up top - state­ment is doubt­ful at the least]
- The corp­ses on the streets couldnt have been the­re for three or four days, jud­ging from their decom­po­si­ti­on sta­te, much less sin­ce the 20th of march, like the NYT repor­ted [in some cases].

edit2: Natio­na­le Unter­su­chungs­kom­mis­sio­nen wur­den von Frank­reich, Tsche­chi­en, Deutsch­land, Est­land, Litau­en, der Slo­wa­kei, Schwe­den und Spa­ni­en auf­ge­stellt. src: click

Claudia Reiterer verzweifelt auf der Suche nach einem Arbeitskreis

07. April 2022

oder einem Gremium.

Was hab ich gelacht.

Boah, die Trefferquote wieder…

07. April 2022

Am 24. März schreibt der Stan­dard noch in alter Gewohn­heit Pro­ject Syn­di­ca­te Arti­kel ab (click) - und dann gleich noch vom ECFR Direk­tor, in dem der eine neue Phi­lo­so­phie und das Agie­ren poli­ti­scher und gesell­schaft­li­cher Akteu­re for­dert um die Bevöl­ke­rung aber so rich­tig in den Zei­ten­wan­del zu über­füh­ren (da stand vor­her ein ande­res Wort) -- mit Unterpunkt:

Außer­dem steht eine neue Debat­te über Mili­tär­ba­sen und Atom­waf­fen an, die Euro­pas Auf­merk­sam­keit (und ver­mut­lich Res­sour­cen) von ihrem glo­ba­len mul­ti­la­te­ra­len Enga­ge­ment abzie­hen wird.

Geframt als “Und er stellt vier Fra­gen, die die Poli­tik lösen muss.”

Und das hast du nicht gese­hen, weni­ger als zwei Wochen spä­ter zeigt schon das US Mili­tär Inter­es­se - na sag amol - des war wohl schon wie­der die­se freie Demo­kra­ti­sche Grund­ord­nung, von der ich neu­er­dings so viel höre.

US-Militär für dau­er­haf­te Stütz­punk­te an NATO-Ostflanke
Infol­ge des rus­si­schen Angriffs­kriegs in der Ukrai­ne hat sich die Füh­rung des US-Militärs für die Ein­rich­tung per­ma­nen­ter US-Stützpunkte in den ost­eu­ro­päi­schen Nato-Staaten aus­ge­spro­chen. Er wür­de dazu raten, dau­er­haf­te Stütz­punk­te ein­zu­rich­ten, die dann von zeit­wei­se ent­sand­ten US-Soldaten genutzt wer­den könn­ten, sag­te Gene­ral­stabs­chef Mark Mil­ley im US-Kongress.

Damit habe man die Vor­tei­le einer per­ma­nen­ten Mili­tär­prä­senz ohne gewis­se Nach­tei­le wie zum Bei­spiel die Not­wen­dig­keit des Nach­zugs von Fami­li­en, deren Unter­brin­gung und den Bedarf für Schu­len zu haben. Russ­land lehnt eine per­ma­nen­te Sta­tio­nie­rung von Nato-Kampftruppen in den ost­eu­ro­päi­schen Staa­ten unter Beru­fung auf ein Abkom­men aus den 1990er-Jahren strikt ab.

Seit Anfang die­ses Jah­res haben US-Streitkräfte ihre Mili­tär­prä­senz in den öst­li­chen Nato-Staaten wegen des Ukraine-Konflikts aller­dings bereits deut­lich aus­ge­baut - pro for­ma han­delt es sich dabei aber vor allem um zeit­lich begrenz­te Ein­sät­ze, kei­ne per­ma­nen­te Stationierung.

src: click

Aber immer­hin, Biden macht wie­der Welt­po­li­tik. edit: Es sei denn es ist ein Druck­mit­tel um offen­si­ve Waf­fen­lie­fe­run­gen im Nato Ver­bund durchzusetzen.

What “isolate russia from the international community” means

07. April 2022

“Today we’re dra­ma­ti­cal­ly esca­la­ting the finan­cial shock by impo­sing full blo­cking sanc­tions on Russia’s lar­gest finan­cial insti­tu­ti­on, Sber­bank, and its lar­gest pri­va­te bank, Alfa Bank,” a seni­or admi­nis­tra­ti­on offi­cial brie­fing repor­ters said.
Sber­bank holds near­ly one-third of Russia’s total ban­king sec­tor assets, the offi­cial noted, adding that the US has now ful­ly blo­cked “more than two-thirds of the Rus­si­an ban­king sector.” 

Second, the seni­or offi­cial announ­ced, “In align­ment with the G7 and the EU, we’re announ­cing a ban on new invest­ment in Rus­sia.” That will be imple­men­ted with an exe­cu­ti­ve order signed by US Pre­si­dent Joe Biden. 

The United Sta­tes won’t par­ti­ci­pa­te in G20 mee­tings that Rus­sia is par­ti­ci­pa­ting in, US Tre­a­su­ry Secreta­ry Janet Yel­len said Wednesday.

Spea­king at the House Finan­cial Ser­vices Com­mit­tee, Yel­len said she’d made that posi­ti­on clear to other finan­ce minis­ters in the group.

src: click

Pre­vent USD from ent­e­ring the rus­si­an eco­no­my, then (as the US) refrain from par­ti­ci­pa­ting in G20 mee­tings for als long as the ent­i­re world (G20) doesnt shun russia.

Oh, and its not true any­mo­re, that no one thinks that the Ukrai­ne can win - the Pen­ta­gon now insists, that thats pos­si­ble - in a war on which it is impos­si­ble to gage how long it will take:

Pen­ta­gon: “impos­si­ble” to know how long the war will go on, but Ukrai­ne can win

[…]

The US Defen­se Depart­ment says it’s “impos­si­ble” to know how long the war in Ukrai­ne will go on if not ended through diplo­ma­cy, but that Ukrai­ne “of cour­se” can win the war.

[…]

“Mariu­pol is still not taken. He’s moved his for­ces out of Kyiv. He’s moved his for­ces out of Cher­ni­hiv. They haven’t taken Khar­kiv. They haven’t taken Myko­la­iv in the south,” Kir­by said. “So I think the pro­of is liter­al­ly in the out­co­mes that you’re see­ing every day.

src: click

Good news on Mariu­pol still not being taken, by the way - the city is now offi­cial­ly unre­co­ver­a­ble as an infra­st­ruc­tu­re: click

You can gage the unity of wes­tern posi­ti­ons by the fact, that the Atlan­tic coun­cil thinks, the Ukrai­ne needs more hea­vy weo­pon­ry, or the war will be over soon, the High Repre­sen­ta­ti­ve of the Uni­on for For­eign Affairs and Secu­ri­ty Poli­cy Josep Bor­rell is still in favor of ending the war soon but not at all cos­ts, and the Ukrai­ni­an government was liter­al­ly tel­ling the world for the first five weeks of the war, that for it to enter into high level peace talks all rus­si­an tro­ops have to vanish from the Ukrai­ne ter­ri­to­ry in the bor­ders of 1991, and then refrai­ned to “at least in the bor­ders befo­re Febru­a­ry 22nd on US TV (CBS afair)” which then nobo­dy cared to cla­ri­fy what that would mean, while then sta­ting they would need hea­vy wea­pons to dri­ve the rus­si­ans out ent­i­re­ly - or at least push them back signi­fi­cant­ly in the east, always while sta­ting, that peace talks are under way of cour­se. Oh, and that the chair­man of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff thinks that the con­flict will at least last several more years.

You see, with a unity of wes­tern posi­ti­ons as pro­noun­ced as this, one would think that an infor­med obser­ver should be able to gage what the goals for ent­e­ring mea­ning­ful peace talks would be in this sce­n­a­rio, befo­re ship­ping in more tanks into Ukrai­ne, as they would of cour­se only be used in a defen­si­ve capa­ci­ty, or that they at least would help to shor­ten the war in any mea­ning­ful sen­se but now that “win­ning” is on the table again, the Ukrai­ne government can sta­te more often, that it is inte­res­ted in peace­talks again. While the Pen­ta­gon “doesnt know” how long the war will last. In front of con­gress state­ments like “at least three years” are utte­red, and Bor­rell men­ti­ons, that we should end the war as soon as pos­si­ble, but not at all cos­ts. While a limi­ted esca­la­ti­on will redu­ce the long term cos­ts of war of course.

Mea­su­red in bloo­dy gum­my bears I think. Or world hunger.

One of the sin­gle grea­test aspects about utte­ring that your oppo­nent only under­stands dis­plays of mili­ta­ry power? It tilts any game theo­ry con­fi­gu­ra­ti­on so far into the “self inte­res­ted enti­ty” ran­ge, that all respon­ses beco­me pos­si­ble - while all of a sud­den, you are play­ing a zero sum game. But Ukrai­ni­ans could be win­ning though!

edit: Exclu­si­on from the UN Human Rights Coun­cil. src: click