Overspecific non denial denials

19. Februar 2022

I final­ly under­stand the “struc­tu­ral poli­ti­cal decisi­ons made in the nine­ties” reference.

I came across a debun­king site today with “quiz­zes and games” but no “about us” sec­tion, just a short con­ta­ct page that then links to the EEAS Press Team for media inqui­ries, but also has a dis­c­lai­mer on the site, that it doesnt repre­sent EU posi­ti­ons in any offi­cial capacity. 

The lan­guage used on the site also is stran­ge­ly casu­al in its seman­tic coloring.

While I most­ly agree with what the site is pre­sen­ting to debunk fake rus­si­an nar­ra­ti­ves on the Ukrai­ne con­flict, one argu­ment made struck me as stran­ge­ly overspecific.

Mythos 4: „Die NATO und der Wes­ten sind Schuld an der aktu­el­len Kri­se. Hät­ten sie sich an ihre Ver­spre­chen gehal­ten, die Alli­anz nicht zu erwei­tern, wür­de Russ­land sich nicht bedroht fühlen.“
Falsch. Solch ein Ver­spre­chen wur­de nie­mals gege­ben und auch nicht von der NATO gefor­dert. Rus­si­sche Staats­me­di­en haben oft behaup­tet, dem sowje­ti­schen Prä­si­den­ten Michail Gor­bat­schow wäre „münd­lich“ ver­spro­chen wor­den, dass die NATO sich nicht über die Gren­zen des wie­der­ver­ein­ten Deutsch­lands hin­aus aus­wei­ten wür­de. In Wahr­heit hat Gor­bat­schow selbst die­se Behaup­tun­gen in einem Inter­view 2014 bestrit­ten und gesagt, dass „das The­ma einer ‚NATO-Erweiterung‘ über­haupt nicht bespro­chen wur­de und in den Jah­ren auch nicht auf­kam. Das sage ich mit vol­ler Ver­ant­wor­tung. Nicht ein ein­zi­ges ost­eu­ro­päi­sches Land hat das The­ma ange­spro­chen, nicht ein­mal, nach­dem der War­schau­er Pakt 1991 auslief.“

Die­se soge­nann­ten ver­ba­len Abkom­men sind rei­ne Fik­ti­on. Die NATO-Mitglieder haben nie poli­tisch oder recht­lich bin­den­de Ver­spre­chen gege­ben, die Alli­anz nicht über die Gren­zen des wie­der­ver­ein­ten Deutsch­lands hin­aus auszuweiten.

Die Behaup­tung, dass die NATO ver­spro­chen habe, sich nicht zu erwei­tern, ist eine fun­da­men­ta­le Fehl­dar­stel­lung der Natur der Alli­anz. Die NATO als Ver­tei­di­gungs­al­li­anz „ver­grö­ßert“ sich nicht im impe­ria­lis­ti­schen Sin­ne. Ent­schei­dun­gen über NATO-Mitgliedschaften lie­gen bei den ein­zel­nen Bewer­ber­län­dern und den aktu­el­len 30 NATO-Alliierten. Jeder sou­ve­rä­ne Staat kann sei­nen Weg selbst bestim­men und angren­zen­de Staa­ten – in die­sem Fall Russ­land – haben kein Recht einzuschreiten.

src: click

*Upbeat sigh* OMG, how beau­ti­ful… The intrinsic natu­re of the alli­an­ce. What a won­der­ful­ly poe­tic, nay - phi­lo­so­phi­cal argu­ment… --- Wait a minute!

This is the quo­te they are referencing.

Rus­sia Bey­ond the Head­lines: One of the key issu­es that has ari­sen in con­nec­tion with the events in Ukrai­ne is NATO expan­si­on into the East. Do you get the fee­ling that your Wes­tern part­ners lied to you when they were deve­lo­ping their future plans in Eas­tern Euro­pe? Why didn’t you insist that the pro­mi­ses made to you – par­ti­cu­lar­ly U.S. Secreta­ry of Sta­te James Baker’s pro­mi­se that NATO would not expand into the East – be legal­ly encoded? I will quo­te Baker: “NATO will not move one inch fur­ther east.”

Mikhail Gor­ba­chev: The topic of “NATO expan­si­on” was not dis­cus­sed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in tho­se years. I say this with full respon­si­bi­li­ty. Not a sin­ge Eas­tern Euro­pean coun­try rai­sed the issue, not even after the War­saw Pact cea­sed to exist in 1991. Wes­tern lea­ders didn’t bring it up, eit­her. Ano­t­her issue we brought up was dis­cus­sed: making sure that NATO’s mili­ta­ry struc­tures would not advan­ce and that addi­tio­nal armed for­ces from the alli­an­ce would not be deploy­ed on the ter­ri­to­ry of the then-GDR after Ger­man reuni­fi­ca­ti­on. Baker’s state­ment, men­tio­ned in your ques­ti­on, was made in that con­text. Kohl and [Ger­man Vice Chan­cellor Hans-Dietrich] Gen­scher tal­ked about it.

Ever­ything that could have been and nee­ded to be done to soli­di­fy that poli­ti­cal obli­ga­ti­on was done. And ful­fil­led. The agree­ment on a final sett­le­ment with Ger­ma­ny said that no new mili­ta­ry struc­tures would be crea­ted in the eas­tern part of the coun­try; no addi­tio­nal tro­ops would be deploy­ed; no wea­pons of mass dest­ruc­tion would be pla­ced the­re. It has been obser­ved all the­se years. So don’t por­tray Gor­ba­chev and the then-Soviet aut­ho­ri­ties as naï­ve peop­le who were wrap­ped around the West’s fin­ger. If the­re was naï­ve­té, it was later, when the issue aro­se. Rus­sia at first did not object.

The decisi­on for the U.S. and its allies to expand NATO into the east was decisi­ve­ly made in 1993. I cal­led this a big mista­ke from the very begin­ning. It was defi­ni­te­ly a vio­la­ti­on of the spi­rit of the state­ments and assuran­ces made to us in 1990. With regards to Ger­ma­ny, they were legal­ly ensh­ri­ned and are being observed.

src: click

I then dug up an inter­view with Nina Khrush­che­va that goes into more details.

Inter­view­er: And exp­lain the histo­ry of US pro­mi­ses to rus­sia around not expan­ding NATO.

Krush­che­va: Well, thats a… the­res a lot of deba­te going on about this. Appar­ent­ly James Baker in 1990 tal­king with then for­eign minis­ter Edu­ard She­vard­nad­ze, the soviet for­eign minis­ter, did say that [NATO] wouldnt push one inch bey­ond the cur­rent bor­ders. Then the ques­ti­on of cour­se… They were tal­king about east ger­ma­ny and uni­fi­ca­ti­on of ger­ma­ny after 89, after the Ber­lin wall fell. […] But they were tal­king about east ger­ma­ny that it wouldnt go fur­ther and actual­ly, we’­ve seen that ger­ma­ny in fact keeps that pro­mi­se. So it is ques­tion­ab­le… They may have meant the who­le Nato expan­si­on, but may­be they only meant ger­ma­ny. I think the more important part is the con­ver­sa­ti­on bet­ween Bill Clin­tons secreta­ry of sta­te, War­ren Chris­to­pher and Boris Jel­zin, when then the­re cer­tain­ly was a pro­mi­se that it wouldnt go - at least not in Jel­zins time - as Clin­ton put it to Jel­zin. But of cour­se Jel­zin wasnt plea­sed, but he couldnt do anything at the time and as we know in 98, the­re was a decisi­on by US con­gress that the expan­si­on could hap­pen, but once again Clin­ton said, its not going to hap­pen in your time. So thats why the Rus­si­ans now, when they are cal­ling for the arran­ge­ment of 97, they talk about that very moment in 1998, when the US Con­gress deci­ded that Nato could expand.

src: click

Then lets look at the docu­ments released sur­roun­ding the talks bet­ween Baker and She­vard­nad­ze - the natio­nal secu­ri­ty archi­ve is very hel­pful in that regard, sim­ply summerizing -

Washing­ton D.C., Decem­ber 12, 2017 – U.S. Secreta­ry of Sta­te James Baker’s famous “not one inch east­ward” assuran­ce about NATO expan­si­on in his mee­ting with Soviet lea­der Mikhail Gor­ba­chev on Febru­a­ry 9, 1990, was part of a cas­ca­de of assuran­ces about Soviet secu­ri­ty given by Wes­tern lea­ders to Gor­ba­chev and other Soviet offi­cials throughout the pro­cess of Ger­man uni­fi­ca­ti­on in 1990 and on into 1991, accord­ing to declas­si­fied U.S., Soviet, Ger­man, Bri­tish and French docu­ments pos­ted today by the Natio­nal Secu­ri­ty Archi­ve at Geor­ge Washing­ton Uni­ver­si­ty (http://nsarchive.gwu.edu).

The docu­ments show that mul­ti­ple natio­nal lea­ders were con­si­de­ring and rejec­ting Cen­tral and Eas­tern Euro­pean mem­bers­hip in NATO as of ear­ly 1990 and through 1991, that dis­cus­sions of NATO in the con­text of Ger­man uni­fi­ca­ti­on nego­tia­ti­ons in 1990 were not at all nar­row­ly limi­ted to the sta­tus of East Ger­man ter­ri­to­ry, and that sub­se­quent Soviet and Rus­si­an com­p­laints about being mis­led about NATO expan­si­on were foun­ded in writ­ten con­tem­pora­ne­ous mem­cons and tel­cons at the hig­hest levels. 

The docu­ments rein­for­ce for­mer CIA Direc­tor Robert Gates’s cri­ti­cism of “pres­sing ahead with expan­si­on of NATO east­ward [in the 1990s], when Gor­ba­chev and others were led to belie­ve that wouldn’t hap­pen.”[1] The key phra­se, but­tres­sed by the docu­ments, is “led to believe.”

src: click

So whats that stran­ge over­spe­ci­fic non deni­al deni­al doing on a debun­king site, that seems to be affi­lia­ted with the Euro­pean Action Ser­vice Press Team, but then also not in an offi­cial capacity?

Debun­king the debun­kers. Might beco­me a new trend…

This is how wes­tern pro­pa­gan­da works? (Unsu­re, actually…)

edit: Also the­re are stran­ge, obvious con­tent errors on the site as well, like the fol­lowing state­ment: “Mitt­ler­wei­le ist die Ukrai­ne der größ­te Han­dels­part­ner der EU mit einem Han­dels­an­teil von über 40 %.” The whois names the regis­trant as Vade­ar Con­sul­ting, based in Bel­gi­um. Accord­ing to b2bhint ano­t­her com­pa­ny of the foun­ders (TIPIK) is using a com­mon address also used by about 50 other com­pa­nies, situa­ted in Brussels (amongst them finan­cial and law agen­ci­es), and the com­mu­ni­ca­ti­on con­sul­ting com­pa­ny is by far not the only enter­pri­se the foun­ders have boot­strap­ped. Ano­t­her com­pa­ny they are run­ning from the same address mind you - is a sub­si­dia­ry of an IT solu­ti­ons pro­vi­der, acti­ve in twel­ve coun­tries. Make of that what you will. 🙂

edit2: Ah Der Spie­gel caught that as well - via fefe:

Bonns Ver­tre­ter Jür­gen Chro­bog erklär­te damals laut Ver­merk: „Wir haben in den Zwei-plus-Vier-Verhandlungen deut­lich gemacht, dass wir die Nato nicht über die Elbe hin­aus aus­deh­nen. Wir kön­nen daher Polen und den ande­ren kei­ne Nato-Mitgliedschaft anbieten.“
Auch Bri­ten, Fran­zo­sen und Ame­ri­ka­ner lehn­ten eine Nato-Mitgliedschaft der Ost­eu­ro­pä­er ab. US-Vertreter Ray­mond Seitz sag­te: „Wir haben gegen­über der Sowjet­uni­on klar­ge­macht – bei Zwei-plus-Vier- wie auch ande­ren Gesprä­chen –, dass wir kei­nen Vor­teil aus dem Rück­zug sowje­ti­scher Trup­pen aus Ost­eu­ro­pa zie­hen wer­den.“ Zwei Jah­re spä­ter kor­ri­gier­ten die Ame­ri­ka­ner ihre Politik.

ori­gi­nal src: click and click

The lies, the lies, the lies…

19. Februar 2022

So - first lets put it on record that the posi­ti­on of “we, the allies of the west” now swit­ched from “Rus­sia is going to inva­de”, to “Rus­sia is not so dumb to inva­de, they are going to play this as a con­flict of attri­ti­on” - which is pro­bab­ly cor­rect from my point of view - at this very moment - as well - btw.

But the lies are still so effing outra­gious. So Ian Brem­mer is cur­r­ent­ly buil­ding a new nar­ra­ti­ve, whe­re Putin (always the devil hims­elf) has been allo­wed to walk over red lines in the past, without con­se­quen­ces - most­ly in terms of “cyber­at­tacks” (unat­tri­bu­t­ed cyber­at­tacks most­ly, btw - but who needs pro­of the­se days…) - and now is high on his short term suc­cess, lashing out like a bul­ly at a UN ral­ly (Why does the US come to mind, while for­mu­la­ting that men­tal image?). But now that has chan­ged, and NATO stan­ding in abso­lu­te unity will act as a detrac­tor (so gre­at, always the things you coi­ned as a rea­li­ty two days ear­lier, turn out to have been the most important all along…), and show Putin that he cant con­ti­nue his pro­vo­ca­ti­ons, and divi­de Nato mem­bers, etc, etc.

Slight issue with that. Putin hims­elf was on a pro­mo­ti­on tour for bila­te­ral diplo­ma­tic dis­cus­sions with the US, eight mon­ths ago, sta­ting several times, that they are open to dis­cuss a bila­te­ral posi­ti­on against cyber­at­tacks, but the US has refu­sed to hear them under Oba­ma, under Trump, and always rejec­ted direct talks on the matter.

See: click

Sure, its a poli­ti­cal gam­bit, but Putin “having been encou­ra­ged by how devas­ta­tin­g­ly effec­ti­ve his cyber attacks were, and now belie­ving he can use them again and again becau­se the west was too timid to react” - is the oppo­si­te of what was part of the public diplo­ma­tic sta­ging as the pre­cur­sor of the conflict.

But who needs to fact­check, when they have a jour­na­lism that never shows any pro­fes­sio­nal cour­te­sy? And ins­tead is exch­an­ging smi­les with for­mer public repre­sen­ta­ti­ves on how far wes­tern infor­ma­ti­on war­fa­re is allo­wed to go… (Last blog ent­ry. Read it.)

Sh*t - its almost like some peop­le belie­ve that the public cant fact­check state­ments or poli­ti­cal back­ground affiliations.

Brem­mer has held rese­arch and facul­ty posi­ti­ons[which?]at New York Uni­ver­si­ty, Colum­bia Uni­ver­si­ty, the East­West Insti­tu­te, the World Poli­cy Insti­tu­te, Law­rence Liver­mo­re Natio­nal Labo­ra­to­ry, and the Asia Socie­ty Poli­cy Insti­tu­te, whe­re he has ser­ved as the first Harold J. New­man Dis­tin­guis­hed Fel­low in Geo­po­li­tics sin­ce 2015.[cita­ti­on nee­ded]

In 2013, he was named Glo­bal Rese­arch Pro­fes­sor at New York Uni­ver­si­ty.[11] and in 2019, Colum­bia University’s School of Inter­na­tio­nal and Public Affairs announ­ced that Brem­mer would teach an App­lied Geo­po­li­tics cour­se at the school.[12]

Brem­mer ser­ves on the President’s Coun­cil of the Near East Foun­da­ti­on, the Lea­ders­hip Coun­cil for the Con­cordia Sum­mit, and the board of trus­tees of Intel­li­gence Squa­red. In 2007, he was named as a “Young Glo­bal Lea­der” of the World Eco­no­mic Forum, and in 2010, foun­ded and was appoin­ted Chair of the Forum’s Glo­bal Agen­da Coun­cil for Geo­po­li­ti­cal Risk. In Decem­ber 2015, Brem­mer was knigh­ted by the government of Ita­ly.[13]

Coun­cil mem­ber of the Near East Foun­da­ti­on, Leders­hip coun­cil of the Con­cordia Sum­mit, Board of trus­tees of Intel­li­gence Squa­red (seems like an out­lier, and judge on ame­ri­can idol?) - but doesnt read tran­scripts of public inter­views Putin gave eight mon­ths ago to NBC

Named “Young Glo­bal Lea­der” by the WEF, Chair of the Glo­bal Agen­da Coun­cil for Geo­po­li­ti­cal Risk at the WEF, but doesnt read tran­scripts of inter­views Putin gave eight mon­ths ago.

Also sh*t its Alp­bach all over again! (Man­da­to­ry cur­se, becau­se look, we’­ve found us ano­t­her “Young Glo­bal Lea­der” here. (And all the best peop­le have taught at Colum­bia once more…))

Oh, and on the point of coor­di­na­ting public nar­ra­ti­ves. You get payed for repea­ting what was sta­ted in the brie­fing room of the white house two days ear­lier, of cour­se. Then a jour­na­list asks you what the new nar­ra­ti­ve is. Then you repeat that. As an inde­pen­dent poli­ti­cal sci­en­tist. At the Munich Secu­ri­ty Conference.

Thats job security.

And if Rus­sia attacks the United Sta­tes or our Allies through asym­metric means, like dis­rup­ti­ve cyber­at­tacks against our com­pa­nies or cri­ti­cal infra­st­ruc­tu­re, we are pre­pa­red to respond. 

We’re moving in lock­step with our NATO allies and part­ners to deepen our collec­ti­ve defen­se against thre­ats in cyberspace.

Two paths are still open. For the sake of the his­to­ric respon­si­bi­li­ty Rus­sia and the United Sta­tes share for glo­bal sta­bi­li­ty, for the sake of our com­mon future — to choo­se diplomacy.

src: click

Thats how pro­pa­gan­da works in the west.

edit: Oh second out­right lie in one state­ment “I think ger­ma­ny being cut off from rus­si­an gas moves euro­pe in the direc­tion of rene­wa­bles fas­ter.” Bullsh*t. The pro­mi­se of a social­ly just ener­gy tran­si­ti­on reli­es on fos­si­le fuels beco­m­ing more expen­si­ve, but in terms of the sta­te being able to skim off the dif­fe­rence in taxes, so it can redis­tri­bu­te it in com­pen­sa­ti­on pay­ments for the not so aff­lu­ent, and use the inco­me to sub­si­di­ze indus­tries that are working towards sus­taina­bi­li­ty but that arent eco­no­mi­c­al­ly via­ble yet. While fos­si­le fuels pro­du­ced will get used by non allied part­ners, at lower pri­ces, becau­se rus­sia still needs tra­ding part­ners and to aqui­re for­eign cur­ren­cy. The last part is ack­now­led­ged in the interview.

The ent­i­re pro­spect of a car­bon tax on impor­ted goods into the EU is based on that princip­le as well. Pri­ma­ri­ly so.

But what does a f*cking payed cro­ney care. Or Habeck for that mat­ter, who in public inter­views pret­ty ear­ly on into the esca­la­ti­on of the Ukrai­ne con­flict (pro­bab­ly without having been ful­ly brie­fed) also couldnt con­cep­tua­li­ze the dif­fe­rence. And by dif­fe­rence I mean money lan­ding in US’ cor­po­ra­te hands (fos­si­le fuel com­pa­nies and freight ship­ping, mind you) that should have acce­le­ra­ted Ger­ma­nys green tran­si­ti­on. But whos bit­ing the hand thats fee­ding their polit­cal care­ers, right?

If the jour­na­list in front of them does a *blink blink* with their eyes, and not much else.

Third faux pas - is the mat­ter of fact way, the expert sta­tes how ger­ma­ny was whip­ped into posi­ti­on, while fran­ce wasnt. You have to hear it to belie­ve it. Watch the video.

New question: Do you like information warfare?

19. Februar 2022

After that video, watch this one: click

Now, do you still like infor­ma­ti­on war­fa­re (IW)?

Now the reverting of prior logic begins

19. Februar 2022

Pri­or logic: Rus­sia will sta­ge fal­se flag attacks, to rec­ti­fy an inva­si­on of Ukraine.

Cur­rent logic: Pro rus­si­an sepa­ra­tists in eas­tern Ukrai­ne have see­ded vide­os on social media net­works citing riot like con­di­ti­ons to rec­ti­fy a gene­ral mobi­liz­a­ti­on of their for­ces, that were crea­ted two days befo­re tho­se con­di­ti­ons bro­ke out, as indi­ca­ted by metadata.

So rus­si­an mili­ta­ry is still at the bor­ders, fal­se flag is not used as offi­cial rea­so­ning to enter a war. Rus­sia will sup­port pro rus­si­an sepa­ra­tists in eas­tern Ukrai­ne, and use the credi­ble thre­at of for­ce to advan­ce mili­ta­ry goals to gene­ra­te poli­ti­cal out­co­mes using sepa­ra­tists and, at this time, likely also covert ope­ra­ti­ons, but not their mili­ta­ry in an offi­cial capacity.

Prac­ti­cal­ly the same as “Rus­sia will inva­de the Ukrai­ne using cri­sis actors as a pre­text”. Just not in scope, inten­si­ty - and also ulti­mate­ly not prova­ble to a lar­ge extent.

As a result ger­ma­nys posi­ti­on has beco­me to urge rus­sia to use its influ­ence on sepa­ra­tist groups to deesca­la­te the situa­ti­on, not a gene­ral push to trig­ger sanctions.

The poli­ti­cal decisi­on makers under­stand the dif­fe­rence. For as long as it is possible.

The gene­ral public is pushed to cele­bra­te “US intel­li­gence reports were cor­rect”, des­pi­te - them not having been used as a pre­text for war.

Fun how that works.

The nuan­ces of not going to war.

Reinventing Czechias, Lituhanias and Slovakias Democratic Image

17. Februar 2022

By GLOBSEC Poli­cy Insti­tu­te, AMO, Free­dom House Lit­hua­nia, and the GMFUS.

Good to know that not only Chi­na is buy­ing influ­ence by cour­ting smal­ler coun­tries wit­hin the EU (*wave bund­le of cash emo­ji*) for poli­ti­cal moti­ves. Just throw in the word demo­cra­cy about 200 times and you should be fine.