src: click
Gems: Russian troop buildup started, when the US continued supplying higher levels of military assistance in november, and for the first time allowed Ukrainians to use some of those weapons (Javelins) in the russian occupied territories in the east. Russia, then realized, that if they want to act, they “had to act now”, and started the troop build up, …
Stuff like that, you know… Unimoportant stuff.
This is the first conversation with him on topic - I’m currently still in the process of watching, which is Zeihan selling a crazy, drop dead dumb, slow, manly and axes in the background youtuber his ideas, while the youtuber is selling their books, and his manlyness.. But you know - its Zeihan, so I’m watching anyhow… (Second, Third, edit: Fourth)
edit: Is it me, or is Zeihan more in “projecting mode” than usual.. 😉 (“If same happens to china…”)
Ukraine is willing to become neutral and compromise over the status of the eastern Donbass region as part of a peace deal, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday, after a Ukrainian negotiator said the next round of face-to-face talks with Russia would be held in Turkey on March 28-30.
No Selenskyj/Putin talks, no Jerusalem, neutrality finally on the table, compromise over the status of eastern Donbass. Issue: Russians currently not confirming that they will parttake in this round of peacetalks.
Then -- one day later…
KIEV, March 28. /TASS/. Ukraine’s priorities at talks with Russia remain the same, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said on Monday. According to him, they involve Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and security guarantees.
“A new round of negotiations is ahead, because we are looking for peace. Our priorities in the negotiations are known. Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are beyond doubt. Effective security guarantees for our state are mandatory. Our goal is obvious - peace and the restoration of normal life in our native state as soon as possible,” he said in a video address published on his office’s Telegram channel.
Sh*t, Selenskyj got on the internet again!
But wait, this is TASS, so that must be russian propaganda!
Also, while we are still talking about master communicators:
Biden says he wasn’t calling for regime change in Russia US President Joe Biden said on Sunday that he was not calling for regime change in Russia when he said on Saturday that President Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power.”
“No,” Biden said as he left a church service in Washington when asked by a reporter whether he was calling for regime change in the country.
That must have been a pretty eloquent “No” from Biden, leaving church service on Sunday, there…
edit: Times Radio insists, that there is a russian PR angle to this and not just Selenskyj being Selenskyj… (Selenskyjs political aides being who they are…)
edit2: Original interview (Selenskyj with “non mainstream” russian journalists):
edit: The speech has a whole section on how Mearsheimer is a liar. Nato is a defensive alliance, not offensive! You have to know, that in scientific circles this argument is entirely void - btw, as “defensive” lies in the eyes of whoever controls the main narrative at the time. Thats what the concept of “false flag attacks” is about, btw not that its necessarily used that often… Read this article on epistemes to understand the concept.
Googled Nato defensive just for the kicks of it.
This is the third search result: click just theintercept, you dont have to read it, but damn… This is the new postulated reality. The predominant common narrative.…
edit2: The speech also has a section in it, that “this war threatens the rules based international order established since WWII”. On that you should read up on the Bretton Woods system and the gold-dollar standard, which was later replaced by the petrodollar (you’ll understand the importance of “rare commodities” payable only in a single currency in the next few months… 😉 ), oh - and on nationalism vs. freedom, read this, and watch Curtis’ Century of the self - Part 1 should suffice.. 🙂
Oh, last point, in Bidens speech, its the rules based international order that guaranteed peace in europe for the last 70 years. Strange where I’m from that was always the merit of the European Union…
edit3: One more. Arte just brought up the pax americana concept in its “quick explainer” series. Best primer for that one I know: click (German, has a lucid intro, but its good. Arte production.)
edit4: Neue Ausrede für Vollidioten, und Journalisten die komplett nichts mehr raffen:
““Bidens Rede macht sein Team nervös”.
Ich bin mir sicher der Biden hat seine zwei Teleprompter aus den US und den Text der darauf lief im Flugzeug auf dem Weg nach Polen selbstgeklöppelt.
Es gibt wohl kaum einen integraleren Bestandteil des “Teams” um einen Präsidenten, als seinen Speechwriter. “Anscheinend stand der Satz so nicht im Manuskript.” Jo, scheibe, dann hat er den noch vom Briefing…
Jetzt wo sich China ja in seiner Sanktionskritik darauf bezieht…
Ich klatsch mal den fefe Beitrag zur Gänze hier rein.
Auf die RAND Corporation ist wenigstens noch Verlass.
Disclaimer vorne weg, Putin hat der Ukraine in einem völkerrechtswidrigen Angriffskrieg den Krieg erklärt. Sonst argumentiert mir das noch jemand weg…
Hier ist einer für die Bingo-Freunde unter euch. Die RAND Corporation hat 2019 mal einen Plan für Russland ausgearbeitet. Den kalten Krieg hatten die Amerikaner nicht militärisch gewonnen, sondern ökonomisch. Selbst der Afghanistankrieg war nicht per se ein militärischer Sieg gegen Russland sondern ein langsames Aufreiben.
In strategischen Begrifflichkeiten: Overextending Russia. Dafür sorgen, dass die sich mehr Verbindlichkeiten aufhalsen, als sie balancieren können. Das PDF heißt Overextending and Unbalancing Russia, und die RAND-Strategen schlagen folgendes vor:
1. Expand U.S. energy production. Die Russen leben von ihren Energieexporten. Wir sollten ihnen Konkurrenz machen, um den Preis zu drücken.
2. Impose deeper trade and financial sanctions. Mit der Frage, wie man die begründen sollte, verschwenden die gar keine Zeit. Da zieht man sich halt irgendwas aus dem Arsch bei Gelegenheit.
3. Increase Europe’s ability to import LNG from sources other than Russia. LNG ist das verflüssigte Erdgas, für das der Scholz jetzt schnell-schnell Schiff-Terminals bauen will.
4. Encourage emigration from Russia of skilled labor and well-educated youth. Das empfehlen sie nicht wirklich, weil das zu lange dauert, bevor es Russland vernichtet. Kann man ja nebenher laufen lassen.
Ja gut, das sind jetzt Ideen für die Politik. Kann man nicht sonst noch was tun, um Russland Kosten aufzudrücken? Klar! Hier sind die konkreten Vorschläge:
1. Provide lethal aid to Ukraine
2. Increase support to the Syrian rebels
3. Promote liberalization in Belarus
4. Expand ties in the South Caucasus
5. Reduce Russian influence in Central Asia
6. Flipping Transnistria
Von denen halten die RAND-Leute den ersten (Ukraine mit Rüstungsgütern aufrüsten) und dritten (Liberalisierung in Weißrussland) für am vielversprechensten.
OK das ist ja alles schön und gut, aber können wir nicht noch was im Propagandakrieg machen? Aber klar! Hier sind RANDs Vorschläge:
1. Diminish faith in the Russian electoral system
2. Create the perception that the regime is not pursuing the public interest
3. Encourage domestic protests and other nonviolent resistance
4. Undermine Russia’s image abroad
OK aber warte mal, die Air Force will auch mitspielen. Was könnte denn die Air Force machen? Hier sind die Vorschläge:
2. Reposture fighters (“so that they are closer to their targets than bombers as a way to achieve higher sortie rates”). Das würde Moskau noch nervöser machen als die Bomber, meint RAND, aber es wäre auch riskanter
3. Deploy additional tactical nuclear weapons
4. Reposition U.S. and allied ballistic missile defense systems
Bleibt noch die Frage, wofür das Militär seine Forschungsgelder ausgeben sollte. RAND empfiehlt Drohnen und Raketen.
Oh und die Navy? Die könnte im Schwarzen Meer mehr Präsenz zeigen. Dann müssten die Russen auch da Geld ausgeben.
Ich könnte hier noch länger weiter aufzählen, ihr könnt euch das PDF ja selber klicken. Wichtig sind in meinen Augen vor allem noch zwei strategische Ziele, die RAND formuliert: “Increase European NATO member ground capabilities” und “Generate a mass mobilization of European NATO member forces”.
Na, hat irgendjemand noch freie Felder auf dem Bingo-Brett? (Danke, Stephan)
What do you do, when you have laied out a public negotiating position of - total territorial sovereignty of Ukraine in the borders of 1991, discussions only with Putin, no demilitarisation, total draw back of all russian troops, just for you to think about meeting the only person you’d go into negotiations with, no foreign interference on talks, no demands of the opposing side, because they sound like ultimatums. Then certainly no demands on demilitarization or denazification (because you cant be made to deal with them on principal, and thats the point where you step away from negotiations), toppling other governments with “popular democracy”, if they dont support Ukraine being accepted by Nato. A nationwide referendum to be able to refrain from aiming for Nato membership, in a war torn country, seize fires, to “think about how to deal with the “brainwashed people” in “temporarily occupied territories””, all prior negotiations not having been negotiations at all, you as a president personally solving the most problematic issues (surrendering of Crimea and Donbas) in direct talks with Putin, demanding 200 tanks from your partners to be able to liberate Mariupol, but also made concessions, that you would be willing to not accept full Nato membership for now, if you have security guarantees by Turkey and Germany - two countries you dont want to influence your peace negotiations in any way, mind you - to act as peacekeepers and to come to your aid unequivocally the next time russia is preparing any military actions near your borders, while insisting on 500 Stingers and 500 Javelins per day from the US, and continued US military aid flowing into your country unrestrictedly. While the russian side, can basically nod and accept your negotiating position, because you cant give up a single city, because of the heroism and determination of the ukraine people in general, and russian cleansing operations, that you see coming?
YOUHAVECNNDO A WRITEUPONTHISTOSOUND -- well, cheery? Conventional? Proper? Sane?
And if you think such a writeup can only go poorly - you have no idea…
Indeed, there is an increasingly apparent change in tone of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s appeal to the West. Late Thursday, in an address to the European Council summit in which he once again pleaded for EU membership, the wartime leader identified each country which was late or reluctant to provide assistance to Ukraine. Targeted were Ireland, Germany and Portugal, as well as Hungary for its neutral stance.
Well, lets go into detail then. Germany was attacked for not having stopped Northstream 2 earlier, which could have made Russia more vulnerable (self assessment, as a hypothetical) and thereby not have started the war (hypothetical). Thats the US position on Nordstream 2 juxtaposed with a demand on enacting economic sanctions proactively, based on the eventuality of war, while presuming a counterfactual, namely that Russia needed Nordstream 2 to feel confident to start a war.
The very same day, after calling on NATO to dedicate at least 1% of its military assets to Ukraine, Zelensky drastically expanded his wish-list for military equipment from the United States -- saying Kyiv needs 500 Javelin and 500 Stinger missiles per day. That’s in addition to the jets, attack helicopters and advanced anti-aircraft systems already requested.
Thats the we want 200 tanks demand btw. In case you missed the word tanks in the writeup…
Zelensky’s relatively new strategy to publicly name and shame countries that Kyiv believes to be sitting on the diplomatic fence appears to be his way to leverage soaring global popularity. (Some of my Ukrainian friends joke that the TV comedian-turned-politician is more popular abroad than in his own homeland). But whether it will move world leaders such as US President Joe Biden to provide such items as jets -- which could make it appear as a belligerent to Moscow -- is doubtful.
You think? Selenskyj openly voiced, that in that case the people will rise up in popular democracy and topple the democratic leadership of the countries, wheres that part. Could you add that part to your summary, please?
Increasingly, Ukrainians from many walks of life tell me that they feel as if the country is executing a proxy war for the West -- pushing back a superpower so as to protect countries on NATO’s eastern flank. In several passionate addresses to various parliaments, Zelensky has pretty much said as much.
Well, first you hold a speech in russian, published on russian telegram for tiktokers, influencers, artists, mothers and father to rise up and “convince their government” to not start a war. Then you have the first missiles flying within the next two hours, then you spend a month pumping up the heroism of the defense effort of your country, make that aspect go viral, have it amplified by conventional media, THEN ask for total Nato involvement and a no fly zone against a nuclear power in the name of humanity. Not once, five times. I guess the proxy war is all yours. Here - have some weapons. You are such heroes. There is an additional narrative here, where weighing options of direct Nato involvement is still on the table because certain US generals “dont believe, that Russia would launch nuclear weapons in response to lets say - a no fly zone only over the western part of Ukraine”, but then you already escalated this into a direct conflict between Russia and the US. But then at least your proxy war has become something much larger by then…
In the days and weeks ahead, Ukrainians will be nervously watching as their president enters into high-level peace negotiations with Russia proposed by Zelensky.
Ok, this is a rewrite of the “only willing to talk to Putin, because I think I need to talk to Putin to tell him why he should hand over Donbas and Crimea, which will solve the situation” statement Selenskyj made twice. So nice of CNN to make that less “insane” sounding. “In the days and weeks ahead” means we have no clue when. “Enters high level peace negotiations” is a rewrite of Selenskyjs “everthing so far were ultimatums, I dont do ultimatums”, Selenskyj spoke of starting peace negotiations only with Putin directly - of course as CNN you cant write that, because they were already ongoing for weeks, its just that Selenskyj rejected the outcomes/counter positions so far as “Ultimatums” because he cant be made “to even give up one city”. Because of the valor of ukrainian people. Oh, I dont think he used valor, and even mentioned, because of the undying hate of ukrainian people once, but - hey, that man knows what hes doing, especially with words, but also when inviting the pope one day to give a peace speech, and then launching a counter offensive the day after. Or was it two days after?
One can safely assume that the Kremlin, in the final phase of negotiations, will demand concessions that no Ukrainian president could ever agree to: giving up territory seized by Russia, formally recognizing the occupied Donbas and Crimea as part of the Russian Federation, for example, and swearing off membership bids for alliances such as NATO.
One can safely assume my ASS, those were direct points made for why russian demands could not be met under any circumstances. The last point is made up, because Selenskyj already made public concessions in that regard. Not very meaningful ones, as the outcome in his mind would be a security alliance with Turkey and Germany that would act like Nato, while still having increased military aid flowing in from Nato memberstates while Russia can go fuck themselves, oh, and of course have to remove all their military first, before Selenskyj would even be willing to think about “personal negotiations with Putin”. Because “first” (well, second, actually) - you establish security guarantees being in place and enacted on the ground, then he is willing to engage in negotiations.
“Concessions that the ukrainian president “could never agree to” is false conjecture, the correct phrasing here is “is not willing to”. He doesnt want to give up even one city, he wants Crimea back, he wants the Donbas back, he wants russian troops to go back to russia, and he wants 200 tanks. For Mariupol. Just to get the baseline somewhat - roughtly correct here.
The “peace talks” Selenskyj is aiming for are “fuck off you are beaten”.
Although Zelensky and his ambassador to the UK have touched on the idea of NATO neutrality for Ukraine, it is unclear whether it would generate widespread popular support.
Thats a rewrite of the INSANE Selenskyj demand, of holding a public referendum during a war. On whether they can even remove the stated aim to become a Nato memberstate from the constitution.
To face off against Putin at the negotiating table, the comedian-turned-politician who was transformed into a wartime president literally overnight will need extraordinary skill and deftness. With so much spilled blood, senseless destruction and displacement on a massive scale, Ukrainians will not be in the mood to give Zelensky much space for concessions.
Just bullshit as conjecture, why not - with an outcome of - let them fight some more, shall we? Maybe someones mood changes? “Will need extraordenary skill”? thats a slight understatement, no?
And even if they did, the Russians have a well-deserved reputation for not honoring their promises.
Thats setting up a catch 22, only to be “resolved” by toppling the russian government. OHDID I FORGETTOMENTIONTHATTHATSTHEENTIREAIMOFTHEUSSTRATEGYSOFAR?
(Germany (Scholz) is on the public record ‘hopeing’ for a quick end to the war. Schröder has stammered something similar by now in a public setting, but let me spare you that speech…). Also, guarantees in life, lets talk about that philosophical notion, with an ongoing war in the background. That CNN journalist is so beguiling in the way he urges the reader to debate philosophical concepts with themselves and their emotionally charged notion of “if Putin will keep a promise”. Hey, we can ask 100 people - and then go with the top answer! Populism? Why? Never.
So with so much at stake, what’s the West to do? Meeting Kyiv’s requests for more weaponry and assets such as sophisticated surface to air missiles -- including more of the US-made armed switchblade or kamikaze drones -- should be a no-brainer.
They already supply those, CNN reporter got high on their own concept of him/herself.
At the end of the day, the West has the choice of intervening now in the Ukraine war in a game-changing way by eliminating Russian advantages in the air, cutting off supply lines and continuing to squeeze the Russian economy. Better to act now on the West’s own terms -- and prevent the destruction of the Ukrainian nation -- or be forced to do so later on Putin’s terms after thousands more innocent Ukrainian men, women and children have been slaughtered.
Thats not how that calculation goes. Thats distinctly not how that calculation goes.
But just for the fun of it, lets compare that to the paragraph in the beginning of the fucking PR Masterpiece CNN wrote into existence here --
Lviv, Ukraine (CNN)In a grinding war such as the one in Ukraine, one learns how to read subtle changes in the public mood. So it was on Thursday -- one month since Russian forces invaded and just as NATO leaders pledged continued support to Ukraine -- that I spotted outside my apartment windows, on the edges of Lviv’s old city, construction workers in high-visibility jackets and tall yellow ladders busily boarding up the neighboring church’s magnificent stained glass windows.
It’s a scene that’s being replayed across this UNESCO world heritage city, from schools to shopfronts and government buildings.
It is also a clear sign that Ukrainians are digging in for the long haul.
Then come to terms with the fact, that the author does demand the continuation of a “proxy” war - by any reasonable standard of what “peace negotiations might look like” (you scram, I keep all the cities, and Nato light, and unlimited military assistance and buildup capacity, oh - and of course, you give Crimea back, dont produce demands, because I see them as “Ultimatums”, dont pressure me with other foreign nations chipping in, oh - and I’ll negotiate with you personally only (oh sorry “in high level negotiations only” based on a CNN reframing without any source stating those words so far) -- and thats exactly what you want.
While Selenskyj can go fucking meandering from one government to the next, in public video speeches asking for full Nato membership, direct Nato involvement, but in case that doesnt fly - more weapons will do as well? How about them 200 peace tanks?
You see, what Selenskyj meant, when he was uttering insane shit was… that he isnt at all an autocratic leader! He wants a referendum now! You see, because, when Biden uttered that insane religious shit about american exceptionalism, and them being the only culture founded on an ideal, and them being in a fight between democracies, and autocracies - only three days later, thats what Selenskyj meant to say also. Obviously.
Dont you see?
Oh yeah, and the recapture of Cherson by ukrainian Forces is currently under way of course. While no expert believes that this has seized being an asymmetric war. But the heroism I tell you - the herosim…
edit: Oh, one correction actually. Selenskyj did utter, that he wants high level talks now. Also 200 tanks for Mariupol, sorry high level tanks, I mean talks now. He said it five days ago. Before he wanted direct tanks with Putin exclusively, sorry, I meant talks with Putin.
Reuters:
Zelenskiy suggests Israel as good place to hold talks with Russia
March 21 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday that Israel was undertaking many efforts to arrange top-level peace talks between his country and Russia and suggested they might take place in Jerusalem.
So CNN wrote that up as “high level peace talks that will take place in the coming days or weeks”, because you know - Putin in Jerusalem, before tanks, I mean talks, would be a good place to start.
Bennett’s efforts to help end the war have been met with skepticism by some at home. Veteran journalist Nahum Barnea asked him earlier this week “if the mediation efforts really have any significance.”
The prime minister has been accused in particular of over-inflating his negotiator status to magnify his political stature and to provide a fig leaf for policies of neutrality toward Russia, such as a refusal to send arms to Ukraine and a failure to join international sanctions.
Meanwhile, Israel’s former consul-general in New York, Alon Pinkas, said he was skeptical of the entire negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine given his belief that significant progress could ultimately only be made between Moscow and Washington.
The neutrality that is necessary for such a mediator role could give the perception that Israel is not standing strongly with Ukraine, the U.S. and the West, he [Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to the United States] said.
“At what price neutrality?” he asked. “How much is an open channel to Moscow worth?”
“Israel can’t afford to be seen as not standing by a democracy that is fighting for its freedom, to say nothing of one that is led by a fellow Jew,” Oren said.
“Morally, politically and militarily, Israel can’t afford to weaken its alliance with the West.”
Lets hope no one at CNN finds that writeup by nbcnews, published yesterday… src: click
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