harlekin.me

this fee­ling of get­ting to know, that the US was so proac­ti­ve and pro­duc­ti­ve at this years munich secu­ri­ty conference.

Also the fee­ling of eter­nal gra­ti­tu­de, that stems from knowing that the EU cur­r­ent­ly has a com­ple­te depen­den­cy on the US in mili­ta­ry defen­se sup­port mat­ters (via NATO), real­ly is unparalleled.

On a sideno­te - it is such a joy to final­ly see the open socie­ty foun­da­ti­on (has Pro­ject Syn­di­ca­te yet ano­t­her arti­cle rea­dy - for der Stan­dard to copy and repu­blish in full, without any edi­to­ri­al con­text - as it does?) the for­mer head of the munich secu­ri­ty con­fe­rence and Joseph S. Nye united in videoconference.

Cant wait for the deba­te amongst them. I’ll defi­ni­te­ly set asi­de five minu­tes for them to sol­ve all the dis­pu­tes that might arise.

Ganz schreck­lich, wie kann man nur - pure Propaganda!

ZDF Doku­men­ta­ti­on mit dem sel­ben Ein­schlag (wenns die ZDF Redak­ti­on bis zu Marie­lui­se Beck geschafft hat, dann weiß man immer, die haben sich ganz beson­ders bemüht… Aktu­el­le Bei­spie­le ihres media­len Wir­kens: Arte ‘Repor­ta­ge’ (in Anfüh­rungs­zei­chen - und ich schät­ze Arte sehr) und Tilo Jung Inter­view)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0HkWdPRUDU

Hin­ter­grund:

17. 06. 2020: KYIV (Reu­ters) - Ukrai­ne has recei­ved mili­ta­ry aid worth more than $60 mil­li­on from the United Sta­tes, inclu­ding Jave­lin anti-tank mis­si­les, the U.S. embas­sy said on Wednesday.

Fol­lowing Moscow’s annex­a­ti­on of Cri­mea in 2014 and the out­break of figh­t­ing in Ukraine’s eas­tern Don­bass regi­on, Washing­ton sent a first ship­ment of Jave­lin sys­tems worth around $47 mil­li­on to Kyiv in April 2018.

src: click

04. 12. 2021 (Poli­ti­co) - Can Ukrai­ne deploy U.S.-made wea­pons against the Russians?

The­re are no geo­gra­phic restric­tions on the deploy­ment of the mis­si­les, which means Ukrai­ni­an for­ces can trans­port, dis­tri­bu­te and use them any time.

As Rus­sia amas­ses the hig­hest num­ber of tro­ops on Ukraine’s bor­der sin­ce 2014, the ques­ti­on for Kyiv now beco­mes: Is it time to start put­ting U.S.-made wea­pons in the field?

Ukrai­ne purcha­sed 210 Jave­lin anti-tank mis­si­les and 37 laun­chers from the U.S. in 2018 for appro­xi­mate­ly $47 mil­li­on, and the Sta­te Depart­ment appro­ved the sale of a second batch of 150 mis­si­les and 10 launch units in late 2019. But with them came a varie­ty of restric­tions on their usa­ge, inclu­ding that they be stored in wes­tern Ukrai­ne, far from the front lines.

The Jave­lin is a shoulder-fired mis­si­le that uses infra­red gui­d­ance to tar­get and des­troy an enemy tank from up to 3 miles away. For­mer Pre­si­dent Donald Trump first appro­ved the sale of the wea­pon to Ukrai­ne after his pre­de­ces­sor, for­mer Pre­si­dent Barack Oba­ma, refu­sed the request, due to fears that pro­vi­ding let­hal aid to Kyiv would pro­vo­ke Moscow.

Wess Mit­chell, who ser­ved as the Trump administration’s top Sta­te Depart­ment offi­cial over­see­ing Euro­pean and Eura­si­an affairs, noted that the Jave­lins and other let­hal wea­pons are desi­gned not for first use but to deter Moscow from encroa­ching on Ukrai­ni­an territory.

But while Washing­ton urges Kyiv to use the Jave­lins only for defen­si­ve pur­po­ses and requi­res that the wea­pons be stored in a secu­re faci­li­ty away from the con­flict, the­re are no geo­gra­phic restric­tions on the actu­al deploy­ment of the mis­si­les, U.S. offi­cials said, which means that Ukrai­ni­an for­ces can trans­port, dis­tri­bu­te and use them at any time.

“Jave­lins are defen­si­ve wea­pons and the United Sta­tes expects Ukrai­ne to deploy them respon­si­b­ly and stra­te­gi­cal­ly when nee­ded for defen­si­ve pur­po­ses,” said Pen­ta­gon spo­kes­per­son Mike Howard.

If the Jave­lins were to be moved, it doesn’t necessa­ri­ly mean they’d be used — in Kyiv’s esti­ma­ti­on, the thres­hold for actual­ly firing the wea­pons has not yet been met, accord­ing to two Ukrai­ni­ans fami­li­ar with the dis­cus­sions. The red line, they said, would be if Rus­si­an tanks cros­sed over into Ukrai­ni­an territory.

The cur­rent Rus­si­an move­ment in Eas­tern Euro­pe is exact­ly the kind of sce­n­a­rio the Jave­lin sale was desi­gned to coun­ter, said two for­mer seni­or U.S. defen­se offi­cials fami­li­ar with the agreement.

src: click

22. 11. 2021: the-drive.com (some mili­te­ry news web­site): Ukrai­ni­an Tro­ops Have Been Firing American-Made Jave­lin Mis­si­les At Russian-Backed Forces
Ukrai­ni­an Bri­ga­dier Gene­ral Kyry­lo Buda­nov tal­ked about the ope­ra­tio­nal use of Jave­lins as part of a recent inter­view with Mili­ta­ry Times, which he con­duc­ted through an inter­pre­ter. Buda­nov, who runs the Chief Direc­to­ra­te of Intel­li­gence of the Minis­try of Defence of Ukrai­ne, also known by its Ukrai­ni­an acro­nym GUR MOU, used the oppor­tu­ni­ty to call for more help from the U.S. government as he sound­ed like the alarm about the Kremlin’s unusu­al deploy­ments of lar­ge num­bers of mili­ta­ry units to are­as oppo­si­te Russia’s bor­ders with Ukrai­ne in recent weeks.

src: click

Die Chro­no­lo­gie läuft also wie folgt. Russ­land hält die Krim besetzt (aber unter dem wohl­wol­len­den Abni­cken euro­päi­scher Staa­ten) (Apple kommt damals Russ­lands Ansin­nen nach und färbt die Krim im rus­si­schen Apple maps rus­sisch…), die Innen­po­li­tik der Ukrai­ne zielt jedoch dar­auf ab sie zurück­zu­be­kom­men. Unter ande­rem indem die Ver­sor­gungs­la­ge der Krim pre­kär gehal­ten wird (Kertsch Brü­cke, Sank­tio­nen und Waren­ver­kehr). sie­he: click

Russ­land hat ver­deck­te Trup­pen im Don­bas - die auf län­ge­re Dau­er ver­su­chen den Don­bas einzunehmen.

Biden kommt an die Macht. Green­ligh­tet Jave­lin Lie­fe­run­gen an die Ukraine.

Im Novem­ber 2021 bestä­tigt ein ukrai­ni­scher Gene­ral die Ver­wen­dung von Jav­lins im Don­bas. Die US unter­bin­den das nicht.

Zu die­ser Zeit hat Russ­land “gro­ße Trup­pen­ver­bän­de” an der Gren­ze, aber noch nicht den größ­ten Trup­pen­auf­marsch aller Zeiten.

Russ­land rea­li­siert zu die­sem Zeit­punkt, dass sie mili­tä­risch schnell eska­lie­ren müs­sen, wenn sie den Don­bas, oder mehr, oder weni­ger (Land­ver­bin­dung zur Krim) haben wol­len - da die Jav­lins die von ihnen “unter­stütz­ten Sepa­ra­tis­ten” aus der Regi­on schie­ßen (sind dort kon­flikt­ent­schei­dend). Ver­set­zen dar­auf hin die größ­te jemals gese­he­ne Trup­pen­kon­zen­tra­ti­on an die Gren­ze. (Euro­news am 06.12.2021 “Russia’s mili­ta­ry build-up near Ukrai­ne is dif­fe­rent this time…”)

Zu die­sem Zeit­punkt ver­laut­bart das US Sta­te­de­part­ment, dass das genau das Sze­na­rio sei, für das sie Jave­lins in die Ukrai­ne geschickt haben, zur Abschre­ckung näm­lich -- gegen genau den rus­si­schen Auf­marsch, der zu dem Zeit­punkt stattfindet.

(Bonus: Restruk­tu­rie­rung des Ukrai­ni­schen Mili­tärs zu dem Zeit­punkt (23. 12. 2021), as fea­tured by the Atlan­tic coun­cil: click

The lar­gest state-owned defen­se indus­try cor­po­ra­ti­on, Ukro­boron­prom, has final­ly begun rest­ruc­tu­ring and moving towards a con­ven­tio­nal Wes­tern cor­po­ra­te gover­nan­ce model based on modern princi­ples and busi­ness prac­ti­ces. This is cur­r­ent­ly at the very ear­ly sta­ge, but the pro­cess has recei­ved sup­port at the hig­hest levels of government.

)

Aber nichts davon darf heut­zu­ta­ge in Sky­news oder ZDF Repor­ta­gen ein­flie­ßen. Die fan­gen dann lie­ber im Dezem­ber oder spä­ter an.

Nichts des­to trotz, ein direk­tes Bedro­hungs­sze­na­rio der Nato Russ­land gegen­über hat es nicht gege­ben (“die Ukrai­ne ver­tei­digt sich, mit US Waf­fen”), aber an ver­such­ten Lösun­gen des Kon­flikts, bei ter­ri­to­ria­len Ver­lus­ten (Krim), war die Ukrai­ne unter Selen­skyj nicht über­mä­ßig inter­es­siert. Dafür lie­fen ja die Waf­fen­lie­fe­run­gen und der Know­led­ge­trans­fer aus den US zu gut. Ver­tei­di­gungs­waf­fen natür­lich, die dann im Don­bas gegen “Sepa­ra­tis­ten” ein­ge­setzt wurden.

Ich habe das Argu­ment hier im Übri­gen nicht erfun­den, son­dern von Peter Zei­han (hier bei 17min in) über­nom­men und dann noch mal sepa­rat nachgegoogelt.