Treffen sich ein Vertreter des German Marshall Funds of the United States, drei (!?) von einer Soros Privatstiftung unterstützte pro ukrainische NGOs und ein Board Member einer ukrainischen Stiftung -- der aber gleichzeitig natürlich auch Co-founder and President der Ukrainian-Austrian Association ist - vor einem wohlwollenden Moderator -
nein - Moment der wohlwollende Moderator ist ja auch der Co-founder and President, Ukrainian-Austrian Association selbst -- also alles andere wäre ja auch Freunderlwirtschaft und so garnicht sexy/koscher…
Also treffen sich die in der diplomatischen Akademie Wien, um einen Hit nach dem anderen rauszuhauen.
Co-founder and President, Ukrainian-Austrian Association: “Thank you very much Yana maybe I should mention, that the ERSTE foundation is so clearly pro Ukraine -- eehh ahhh, that, eh, you have done, uuuuh, quite a few important projects in the past and I do hope that you will continue that…” addressed at Yana Barinova (European Policies and Ukrainian Relations, ERSTE Foundation; former Kyiv City Councillor for Culture)
Ideologie-Check BESTANDEN!
Was er uns darüber hinaus mit der Aussage mitteilen wollte? Ich hab keine Ahnung.
Co-founder and President, Ukrainian-Austrian Association: “I may just tell you and the audience, that there is a project, even in Austria, in Vienna - by the presidential office of Ukraine, to show the exhibition [of] Russian war crimes in Ukraine, at the University of Vienna. I [myself] have [had (die Besten der Besten)] the privilege to have innitiated such a project in austria, but the presidential office [of Ukraine] had to decide to prioritize this exhibition to go to New York, because they are fighting for every vote at the general assembly of the United Nations.”
Des ist jetzt aber keine Propaganda, oder? Des ist jetzt einfach eine informative Kunstausstellung mit dokumentarischem Charakter, die da auf Anleitung des presidential office of the Ukraine mal einfach ganz schnell von Wien nach New York musste, oder?
Des ist ja fast so toll wie die Kunstausstellungen die sonst nur die Viktor Pinchuck Foundation zustande bringt!
Yana Barinova (European Policies and Ukrainian Relations, ERSTE Foundation; former Kyiv City Councillor for Culture): “NGOs inside of themselves [sic!] they can shift their priorities, if they can be flexible, they can switch in between being a MEDIA [outlet], into [sic! to] learning how to document war crimes.” [Very flexible of those NGOs, I might add, of course all guarded and driven around by the ukrainian patrol police, I recon.]
WAIT! NGOs can both be media outlets and state accredited organs that document warcrimes? Thats amazing! Just dont forget to enter on you next job form, the usual ngojournaliststateaccreditedwarcrimeexpertandanalyst and if ever - someone asks you what that means, just tell them you were flexible.
Co-founder and President, Ukrainian-Austrian Association: “The media are playing a pivotal role in countering the russian narrative - which is everywhere. And thats not only a question of money, which is pluggend into the system subversively. This is the result of a strategy over maybe 10, 15, 20 years, when Putin came to power. So - some criticism, Ukraine in many aspects until some years ago was sleeping and did not counter the russian things, talking about culture! [Wait for it, waaaaiiiit for it!] Yeah? That russia is doing a cultural initiative, in order to spread the narrative, etc - so cultural ambassadors of russia, this was not countered by Ukraine for many years, they were just silent, its not only a question of money. And only with the Ukrainian Institute it started (TELLMEMORE!1!). And that has been maybe five, six, seven years ago, before that there was nothing.”
Nothing? Well thats probably because media is so important, but not nearly as important as the Ukrainian Institute, right? (*cough cough*)
Yana Barinova (European Policies and Ukrainian Relations, ERSTE Foundation; former Kyiv City Councillor for Culture): “Before that (The Ukrainian Institute I recon?) it was actually more fashionable to be a Russian pluralistic writer, than actually acknowledge that you are coming from a village in the northern part of Ukraine. [WRONGNARRATIVE, WRONGNARRATIVE!]
Iryna Khomiak Programme Manager, German Marshall Fund, Berlin): I observed this uh also talking with colleagues from other European foundations. First year it was the year of direct aid, urgent needs a direct aid on the borders but now we see that I hope the war will end rather sooner than later, but still it continues so what the strategy of European philanthropy should be -- what uh what we can Undertake and I think that the main thing it’s not to do for Ukraine but to do with Ukraine because definitely we don’t want to be passive recipient of of funds we want to be co-creator of uh important impactful uh programs so I identify a capacity building initiatives as the top priority uh for the next several years - why because we say restart Ukraine rebuild Ukraine bringing Ukraine European integration, but this is just words behind each of those words there are people and their capacities and their knowledge and their expertise what they can and well they can’t so I think the best thing what we can do to prepare people for such enormous undertaking as rebuild Ukraine to equip with knowledge to equip with networks to to equip with the best practices and this in a way means decolonization of European philanthropy what they mean it means that you help in order to leave at a certain point you help to grow the Ukrainian third sector you help Ukrainian ngos to strengthen its own capacity, because many big International foundations missions come to Ukraine and what happens they head hunt best minds of course uh many people choose working for international organizations, it’s prestigious it’s it’s security it’s good salary and then when mission of this organization finished and this organization leave the Ukraine it’s again tabularasa because there is no internal infrastructure that can continue to work so uh I would call all those partners who are open and keen to to help Ukraine to to do with Ukraine and to help to strenghten its own capacity and for each project to find implementing partners in Ukraine it’s absolutely another tactic how you cooperate with Ukraine from other side it’s a big homework for Ukrainian ngos because you should be transparent you should be accountable and you should know how to accompany international organization in their mission in Ukraine because to receive the grant it’s one thing but to report on this grant to measure deliverables and then to build long-term sustainable strategy it’s also different type of skill that require strategic planning visioning compliance with lots of international programs documents strategies and agendas.
Wait, this is not a grass root movement at all? This is all astroturfed by what “International foundations”?
Who do what “Philantropy”?
Because Philantropy is so hard, because - and I quote: “Because to receive the grant it’s one thing but to report on this grant to measure deliverables and then to build long-term sustainable strategy it’s also different type of skill that require strategic planning visioning compliance with lots of international programs documents strategies and agendas.”?
You know, for all the PHILANTROPY grants you received, right? [WRONGNARRATIVE, WRONGNARRATIVE!]
Iryna Khomiak Programme Manager, German Marshall Fund, Berlin): “Following the the needs of of the Civil Society on the ground we decided to emphasize and sort of reinforce the support um the um full-scale Invasion um to a certain extent um shifted the the Paradigm of uh of donor Civil Society relations so to say because at some point the donors community started responding to the needs of the Civil Society on the ground instead of dictating or shaping the Narrative per se, since the last late last March beginning of April last year we already supported around 200 projects inside of the country as I said on as local levels as possible because that’s where the resilience is taking place that’s where the recovery is taking place I’m not undermining or neglecting the role of the state level ngos and um and initiatives I’m just trying to focus on what I’ve been working with and also to sort of bring up this perspective.”
Oh, nothing, I - Iryna Khomiak Programme Manager, German Marshall Fund, Berlin, am just stating that the international donor community is shaping the narrative of ukrainian state level NGOs - which arent representative of the ukrainian people - thats all.
You know, because like the Erste Foundation representative before was saying, we dont have any ground level initiatives right now - at all, its all international NGOs working in the Ukraine, then leaving the country and leaving back, what was it again?! Ah, yes - tabularasa. Nothing. Absolutely nothing at all.
Let me get this straight, but when Jeffrey Sachs states the following:
It was a coup, of course. It was an unconstitutional seizure of power when very violent groups, well armed, stormed the government buildings in February, 2014. [Protesters, angered by Yanukovych’s rejection of a trade agreement with the European Union, were killed by security forces after trying to occupy parts of Kyiv; afterward, Yanukovych was isolated politically and fled to Russia with the assistance of the Kremlin. I asked Sachs over e-mail for a source for his claim about the role played by the U.S. He responded, “It is public knowledge that the National Endowment for Democracy and US NGOs spent heavily in Ukraine to support the Maidan. I have first-hand knowledge of that spending.” The N.E.D. told The New Yorker that it provides funding to civil-society groups but “does not provide funding to support protests.”]
Und kurze Mitteilung an das Arschlochwichserschwein von meiner ehemaligen Psychotherapeutin, wenn ich ihr in Monat drei des Krieges erzähle, WIE der German Marshallfund of the United States, die deutsche Haltung gegenüber dem Krieg kritisiert, und der gleichzeitig die einzige Quelle ist, von der ich Hintergrundinformationen über die “Zeitenwenderede” bekomme (so unwichtige Details wie, die Ränge wurden voll besetzt, damit das Klatschen besser wirkt, und vor der Rede kannten den Inhalt weniger als ein dutzend Personen), weil der german Marshall Fund of the United States darüber debrieft wird, aber die europäische Öffentlichkeit halt nicht -- dann das nächste Mal vielleicht mehr als einfach nur eine abwertende Handgeste von sich geben.
Nur so ein Gedanke.
Achja, und mir zuerst sagen, dass ich ihr erklären solle wie österreichische Aussenpolitik läuft - wegen dem Motivationsfaktor - und mich dafür dann aus der Betreuung treten, wenn ich es nicht mehr ertrage?
Ja, ja? Jederzeit!
Applause - for a job well done. Mögest du auch deine anderen 120 Patienten so perfekt betreuen, wie mich.
Scheiße, noch kein Dopaminpush, weil man wieder einem geholfen hat - und schon ein halbes Jahr vorbei?! Na dann ab zum nächsten Kandidaten!
Diese Gesellschaft ist das absolut grotesk Allerletzte.
Propaganda, hat aber wie immer noch niemand entdeckt.
edit: Please doubleckeck, maybe I’ve mixed up Yana and Iryna when attributing the quotes above. The moderator clearly called one person Yana, but their online photos look quite different. I’ve kept the names the moderator uses when referring to them.
edit2: Hilfreicher Kontext via fefe:
[l] Angst vor der Soros Foundation? Weil die immer Revolutionen anzettelt? Keine Sorge!
Der alte Mann hat die Stiftung seinem Sohn Alex übergeben, und der will erstmal 40% des Personals feuern. Außerdem:
>Alexander Soros also said that under his leadership, he planned to focus the foundation more on US domestic politics.
How long will it take for every person on that panel to realize, that all they’ve been reproducing over one and a half hours is ukrainian propaganda?
One lifetime? Two lifetimes?
It’s such a bliss seeing all those over 60 year old diplomats rediscovering genuinely ukrainian talkingpoints all by themselves (and a little help from their ukrainian friends) and then managing to convince themselves, that thats actually what they are thinking as well, because of a rational deliberation processes they’ve engaged in.
Then of course you also need an almost 60 year old “former journalist” to motivate the audience to clap, because why not what else would they do? Produce actual journalism?
Lets go through this, while we have the time to do so, why not?
Whats the russian win condition in a war of attrition?
Keeping the ukrainian economy in a dysfunctional state for as long as possible, so the ukrainians who have fled don’t return for another two to three years.
Children get integrated into the western educational system, returning to ukraine seems like a worse and worse idea for the actual people who have fled, over time, and the reunification process therefore reverses and more people (the men) actually flee the Ukraine at the end of the process, rather than reimmigrate.
To counteract that, Ukraine HASTO start the rebuilding process while the war is still ongoing.
To attract investors, they now have proposed, and started to implement a flat tax of sub 20%.
But to also attract half of the country, and coincidentally the younger more educated half, they now have to invest massively in new infrastructure projects - and film PR spots of the kindergardens they will construct, to have any messaging for the not so well off classes at all.
There are still no new plans on how to diversify the energy infrastructure, because you cant at scale (if they invest in solar right now, it takes Russia about 4 months to delete half that investment - considering how long it took Russia in the past to do so, in the Ukraine, last year).
Private investment in theory is possible, because Ukraine opted to 10x their grain export business as a way of futureproofing their landowners bankrolls, as soon as it had open borders to do so, so the investment in most of their industries still remained outstanding.
So now the infrastructure reconstruction push is currently put into place, where they also negotiated meetings with private investors, who will shortly visit the Ukraine by train to consider how they can help in rebuilding the (energy) infrastructure.
So if you are russia, you look at those trains. You look at the four stops those congregations make in the next two to three months, and then those projects become your primary targets for disillusioning the western investor class.
Those and the new steelplants of course that the Ukraine plans to build in western regions of the country.
And then you wait. And destroy the energy infrastructure.
And as long as you can keep up disrupting the new Ukrainian economy, wanting a sense of safety will win out over the fear of being drafted, and the want to thrive in an economy, with half the people, who now has implemented a flat tax, but oh so high growth potential, if russian rockets dont hit.
And after about ten years, you have also lost the next generation of expats, in an aging country - with a flat tax, whose energy infrastructure once in a while might still be targeted by russia, and which still needs a victory - because, well neutrality was off the table after Butscha of course…
I mean what could go wrong? Everyone on the panel is very optimistic!
Because its the strength of the over 60 year old austrian diplomats on this panel to identify for themselves, that “thinking that this all ends on day 0 when the war is over” is wrong argumentatively, and it can all be over once businesses just change their risk assessment procedures to see all the great growth potential of a country at war, with a flat tax.
So far - thats 8 billion USD worth of private sector investment after the London investment conference, right?
So whats the next speaker in Vienna selling, following that unique strategic investment plan?
A human centered rebuilding of their infrastructure. In a country where the median age has now just increased by four years, with a flat tax, and a PR push that they will be building more kindergardens soon, so the population should not be afraid to get more children, or even think about leaving the country…
Because this all ends, as soon as we in the west invest, and Putin starts to realize, that we will integrate the Ukraine into the EU no matter what it takes, and that Russia has already lost!
Ok, so what if Russia manages to destroy the first foreign investment push and demonstratively so?
Another 50 billion for infrastructure rebuilding before the second one?
This all ends when the war is frozen, and not one day earlier.
And if that takes too long, say goodbye to your next generation.
Or do you want to establish that good “revisit ukraine, to see your dad suffering from PTSD curled up in the corner of the room, we will have all that flat tax money to help him tough it out!” massaging first? Probably not.
But thats not as positive, as panel II on Ukrainian Statehood made it sound… How come?
Because I’m underestimating the motivational power of repeated propaganda messaging?
Now clap for the new ukrainian slogan: Please dear population and investors, return to a warzone. Our country is so big, you will hardly notice it.
Or was it - come to Ukraine, as a country at war, we have very low wages, and our median pension is just 100 USD a month. Dear Expats, please return to our country, for ample growth potential!
Also we would like to talk with your companies risk assessment department, if you dont mind.
[United Nations Development Programme] Uncovering the reality of Ukraine’s decimated energy infrastructure
A new countrywide energy assessment confirms damages exceeding $10 billion, with Ukraine’s capacity to produce electricity reduced by 61 percent. But with no let-up on attacks on energy networks, where does Ukraine go from here?
The majority of households reported that the work of their household members had been affected since the start of the full-scale invasion, primarily due to job loss, salary cuts, and reduced working hours.
Most households reported a decrease in income, with IDPs and returnees being particularly vulnerable in this respect. There has been a decrease in access to paid work, as well as an increase in reliance upon humanitarian and government assistance, alongside support from friends and relatives (including remittances) as primary sources of income. The majority of households reported engaging in economically driven coping strategies to meet essential needs, such as spending savings, acquiring additional work, and reducing health expenditure in order to meet other essential needs. Households reported that they could continue engaging in taking on additional work, but could not continue spending savings, reducing essential health expenditures, or taking on debt. Geographically, the impact of the war on livelihoods has been felt most greatly in the Southeastern macro-region.
Lets not go to Mearsheimer to explain it this time, lets go to one of his students, Sean Mirski.
Innocent enough, right?
Wright: Let me also tell people a little more about you are you - are still a visiting scholar at the Hoover institution at Stanford University?
Mirski: I am, they keep extending it so I’m not going to say no.
Wright: No don’t uh, and you previously served in the U.S. defense department under both Republican and Democratic administrations - um and you would have a master’s degree from the University of Chicago in international relations or something, you went to Harvard Law School - is that all true?
Mirski: That’s correct, that’s all true.
Innocent enough, right - I mean what could go wrong?
Wright: So you think it was, it was a tactical not strategic blunder to seize Crimea in terms of the motivation - it seems like the threat Russia perceived was at least as direct as most of the threats America is reacting to in your book, in the sense that you’ve got a neighbor right on its border and it has a very important naval base [Sewastopol] in the neighbor, it’s technically a long-term lease but it’s a legacy of the Soviet Union and uh there is what looks like from its point of view - a coup or - an event, a revolution - deposing of a president who was kind of friendly uh and there is in some sense at least U.S. support for what just happened - and the U.S. has professed the intention to have that neighbor be part of NATO and so on - I mean that’s like, compared to most of the things the US has been reacting to uh by intervening in Latin America, that’s a much more direct threat right?
Mirski: Oh, yeah I mean certainly, I think from Russia’s perspective that’s probably the right way to think about it, I mean americans obviously see it a little bit differently, because at least -
Wright: I’ve noticed that - I’ve noticed that… [*smirk*]
Mirski: Yeah [*smirk*], well and you know part of it is I think for most Americans you know the idea of NATO enlargement it seems sort of I don’t want to say innocent [*cough, cough*], but it doesn’t seem or at least it hasn’t seemed targeted at Russia until very recently, ehm but you know part of what makes International politics difficult is that one its very difficult to communicate intentions in a sort of uh deliberate way and number two those intentions can just change over time. and so you know from Russias perspective maybe NATO expanding in your know the 2000 odds and 2000 early 2010s was not aimed at Russia but Russia doesn’t have any way of guaranteeing that once NATO is up at Russia’s border someone doesn’t change their mind - and suddenly NATO’s turned into an anti-russia alliance again and so from Russias perspective I think it’s understandable why they’re concerned that you know countries like Georgia and Ukraine would be potentially offered NATO admission.
Wright: Right and that leads to one kind of abstract question before we get into the history, um you know you said it had no way of of being assured that NATO wouldn’t ultimately be a threat whatever the motivation behind expansion and um this is a common thing I mean there’s a term that doesn’t appear in your book I think uh which is security dilemma. I’m sure you’re familiar with it you studied uh under Mearsheimer at Chicago and that refers to the fact that um you know one nation uh it will it will read something that another nation does as either offensive in intent or potentially offensive uh and will react to it in a way that it sees as defensive but then the other, the other country will - will see it as either offensive in intent misreading it or see it, the motivation, accurately and but also see that potentially this this new thing this new military base somewhere could be put to offensive use and so they react and you get a spiral - […]
So of course when you mention that (“What about in 30 years time? Russia only currently has the demography to do something against the perceived threat.”) in week two of the war towards you psychologist, she snorts at you and strikes even the possibility of that notion down. Just outright. No reason. Because having an education is for pussies. And because by then everyone already knew, that Putin was Hitler, and crazy, and that propaganda NEVERWORKSONANYONEENDUCATED, right?
RIGHT?
I mean you learned at university how it works, and that this is it. But who listens to you, when you say, that Putin likely used Nazis as the “enemy image” to dehumanize the opponent in a war? And used several other Propaganda principles in which he probably didnt believe in personally? Because he might not actually just be mad?
And that gets you another snort and another strike down for even having considered the possibility.
Sorry - I thought I throw in some flavor text - just to lighten the mood a bit. Before we get to the more interesting stuff.
Wright: I hadn’t realized that we had a tendency in the 19th century, if I read you correctly, to characterize part of the threat we faced uh from Europe as ideological in the sense that they were monarchists - right, like today we are framing our foreign policy apparently largely as a global war between democracy and autocracy, for better or worse, by the way the answer is worse, but that’s the way we’re framing it - um and uh - I was surprised by the parallel and uh and but but that’s kind of built in from the beginning, it sounds like.
Mirski: It is although it kind of fluctuates I think in how important it is, um certainly when the United States is for instance declaring the Monroe Doctrine in 1823 and things like that, the like you know distinction between monarchy and democracy is really at its height, uh and I think rightly so - I mean I think the European monarchies at that point were legitimately concerned by the ideological threat that was posed by the United States and that’s true certainly all the way through the Civil War.
France uh during the U.S Civil War invades and occupies all of Mexico and installs an uh a Habsburg Prince on the throne of Montezuma uh and essentially the the explicit reason to do this is to basically start making the hemisphere safe for monarchy.
Emperor Napoleon III basically has this idea that once Mexico is remonarchized he’s going to just start moving south through the rest of the hemisphere and targeting all these Latin American republics making them back into monarchies - and so there is very much that sort of ideological conflict at that point. I do think it ameliorates a little bit in the coming decades, you see you see flavors of it in the sense that obviously in World War One there’s a lot of sort of rhetoric about Prussian autocracy and you know and certainly of course the phrase to make the world safe for democracy comes from Woodrow Wilson at that time [see: Bernays] -- but um but it doesn’t it - ideological factors end up I think receding a little bit around the turn of the century it’s less that and more kind of just pure security kind of interests.
Wright: So in that case, uh so France has this kind of uh Habsburg proxy, I mean for a reason - I don’t know enough about history to understand why, it wasn’t just a french guy but he apparently wasn’t right uh and and uh and then we in that case we basically support a revolution to get rid of him right?
Mirski: Yeah I mean so the the uh the then president of Mexico Benito Juarez um was essentially already you know fighting a civil war against uh Emperor Maximilian the the Habsburg Prince - uh we end up mostly just uh providing his forces with support and sort of uh launch it you know uh I don’t want to say launching a proxy war but it ends up being a proxy war but uh that was very much a conflict that we didn’t necessarily instigate so much as helped uh as far as finish.
Wright: Okay and then what why don’t you maybe list several kinds of interventions, you know several interventions that represent different kinds of of interventions uh in say in between the Civil War uh and uh well you go all the way up to World War one if you want if it’ll help.
Mirski: Yeah well and so it starts out I think um you know up until like 1898 the Spanish-American War there’s not that much there are certainly a few but there’s not as much in terms of direct sort of um the United States is not as interested in sort of meddling around with the internal sovereignty of other nations, the one exception is annexation which always ends up being sort of the last resort for the United States in response to security threat and so in uh I have a chapter in the book about Hawaii where a variety of reasons we were very concerned about Hawaii uh getting annexed by Japan in response essentially we end up annexing Hawaii ourselves um but starting in the Spanish-American War what ends up happening is we’re left with uh we’re occupying Cuba at the end of the war and on the one hand we’ve promised to give Cuba its independence at the start of the war on the other hand we’re very worried that if we just give Cuba its independence uh that uh it’s going to get snaped up by another great power like Germany uh uh basically under on the theory that Cuba is unlikely to stay stable for long it’s going to descend into Civil War and once that happens Germany is just going to come in and to scoop up the pieces and so what we end up doing is uh forcing Cuba to uh install uh the Platt Amendment which is among other things - has provision that gives the United States the right to intervene in Cuban Affairs if things get bad enough essentially that was not -
Wright: That was nice of them I thought. Just send troops whenever we want!
Mirski: Yeah, well and it’s it’s funny because uh one of the debates among historians is what was the kind of original intention of the Platt Amendment uh and I think you know my view is that if you look at the the author of it the primary author of it uh Secretary of State or Secretary of War Elihu Root, he you know I think he genuinely thought it would be a last resort - and he also genuinely thought it would never be used because part of the thought was well if we promise if we tell the Cubans that we’re going to intervene in their politics if they ever have a civil war the Cubans don’t want us in their politics and so they’ll never have a civil war and is this sort of what ends up being incredibly naive, thinking that uh ends up leading the US to take a greater and greater role in the region but that at least was the initial thinking - um but that’s sort of like the you know and that is not a minor imposition on Cuban sovereignty but that ends up being sort of the the lighter edge of interventions as the kind of 1900, yeah 19 odds and the 1910s go on the interventions start to become much more hard-hitting and so in 1905 uh one other example of an intervention is something called customs receiverships so the United States will come in and basically administer the custom houses of our neighbors which is a little bit like the Chinese coming in to administer the IRS uh and the reason that analogy works is because at the time Latin American states essentially drew all of their revenues from taxing trade - through the custom houses and so if you control the custom houses you controlled all internal revenue for the state of the Dominican Republic or Haiti or wherever, and so the US starts coming in and is essentially taking over these custom houses and initially it’s like consensual might not be completely the right word - but at least it’s at the invitation of the Dominican government over time this becomes much less consensual and we start taking over more custom houses. At first we’re just administering them, we’re giving Revenue to the uh to the central governments over time we end up starting to use that financial leash to do other things and so if we don’t like the government or we don’t like what the government’s doing we won’t hand over the revenue and we start starving it of revenue um we end up obviously uh regime change uh first time the United States ever openly overthrows now the government is in 1909 with Nicaragua this starts to become a bit of a pattern over the next decade and so we’ll send gunships and basically uh force president uh presidents and dictators off their uh out of their presidential chairs uh and finally this all just culminates in occupations - uh including I think the occupation of Haiti which lasts for almost two decades from 1915 to I believe 1934. and so that ends up being sort of the spectrum of U.S. intervention during this time and it comes in a lot of flavors, but I think one of the points that I make in the book is that these sort of early “intervention light” end up sort of leading to the heavier interventions in part because they don’t actually fix the problem that the United States is trying to solve.
Wright: The uh on the on the controlling the customs uh what is the customs house is the term or --?
Mirski: Customs receiverships yeah with the custom houses yep.
Wright: Um so yeah I mean we use that as a means of control we also fear that European powers will use it as a means of control right and yes and it’s interesting the extent to which uh both the perception of threat we have and the perception of threat that leads - well whether you want to call it perception of threat but but the motivation that leads some European powers to want to exert control over uh here - is about uh is about financial matters and fear that the other one will control the commerce right? I mean this was an actual European fear was that the U.S uh government was going to basically control imports and exports for the whole hemisphere and I guess one question is I mean how big a part of the motivations especially on the U.S. side but but on both sides were these kind of purely economic things um and did did the nature of international economics subsequently change so that that kind of eventually ceased to be much of a factor per se or what?
Mirski: Uh yeah so that’s actually a great question uh one point to make at the start is uh Europeans were as you mentioned the European -- the concern among American policy makers was that European nations would essentially come in and control these custom houses if the United States did not and the reason why was because Europe basically was owed a lot of money by these countries um but the thing that that statement kind of uh obscures a little bit is that the money that was owed was not really so much debt on contracts although that was part of it it was more that under the international law of the time and a lesser extent today -- um you know if you’re a European country and one of your citizens gets injured in a civil war or you know his property gets stolen you as the European State can essentially Champion their claims against the government in question and as I mentioned a lot of these countries are incredibly politically unstable we’re talking you know a new president every year sometimes multiple times a year and so in the context of all these Civil Wars and revolutions these European states do kind of rank up enormous claims, dealing uh - that stem from the kind of mistreatment of their citizens and property and I think that ends up being actually much more important for European powers than the sort of oh my Bankers went in they signed a contract and now you know the government’s trying to kind of welch on that um it’s just you know that that does play into it to some extent but it ends up being I think a sort of a secondary factor - um and so so you’re right so the American policy makers were a little bit worried that essentially to kind of make uh these countries behave better that the European nations would sort of come in and and start taking over the custom houses -- the the nice thing is that this the situation has improved in that respect in the intervening Century in two ways, one there’s been an important development in international law in part uh - I think originally sort of proposed by Latin American states themselves for sort of obvious reasons but uh eventually championed by the United States to essentially make it unlawful for uh powers to intervene on behalf of for instance like contract debts and things like that and then kind of beyond that initial development there’s been obviously just more of a norm that you don’t get to use military force against another Nation just because you might have you know economic claims against them so that’s been a huge kind of development and one that the United States I think was very very in favor of because it sort of eliminated part of the risk that the United States saw the other aspect of this though that I think has been helpful is that the sort of system of um international arbitration uh particularly investor State arbitration that’s been set up in especially you know the last half century or so, has kind of ameliorated the concerns that a lot of these powers in general have about not not getting fair treatment - because it turns out that the record of essentially suing a state because they expropriated your property or whatever most of these claimants actually win and ended up collecting on kind of the whatever money they’re owed and so because there’s now a mechanism that doesn’t involve using force and that mechanism Works reasonably well I think it’s actually kind of ameliorated some of the pressures you saw um the U.S responding to.
Wright: Yeah it would be nice to ameliorate all the pressures that lead to uh to war and and intervention uh forceful intervention and there were attempts I mean, uh you know like uh here’s a James Blaine the Secretary of State who uh wants to set up a system this is in the late 19th century where the way you’re going to maintain order in Latin America is you know uh a lot of international commerce reciprocal trade relations and the U.S. is going to facilitate arbitration of disputes so it’s kind of like a hemispheric court or something is the idea and you know I even say broadly speaking this is a direction in which you’d like to see the world evolve right you just have ways of solving disputes um but these things seem never to work out uh well enough to prevent another round of intervention right?
Mirski: Yeah, I mean this actually, so Blaine definitely sort of pioneers uh this approach although he’s not that successful at implementing it but um Elihu Root who I mentioned earlier is the author of The Platt Amendment by the time he he ends up being uh Theodore Roosevelt’s uh Secretary of State for essentially the second half of the Roosevelt administration and he is uh he ends up winning I think a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts uh in favor of international arbitration um and one of his big developments is he sets up this uh Central American court of justice this court that is meant to arbitrate all the disputes among the five Central American nations who are always at each other’s throats always invading each other and sort of causing problems and he sees this explicitly as a way of fixing some of the disorder and kind of the the power vacuums that he’s afraid are going to lead to European expansion uh the court though ends up being a bit of a failure part of that I think is that subsequent administrations just don’t take it seriously and Woodrow Wilson eventually just ends up killing it because it gives a ruling on an issue that he doesn’t like and so he essentially uh kind of chucks it out the window.
Wright: Um which president was that I missed it.
Mirski: Woodrow Wilson. Um uh I didn’t get as much into this in the book, uh for a variety of reasons, but uh the Central American Court essentially concludes that some that Wilson’s attempt to corner the market on the the Trans-Isthmian canal by uh taking canal rights to Nicaragua is a violation of the uh rights of its neighbors and the United States doesn’t like that and so it essentially pulls the plug on the court.
NO!? We have definitely not seen that being repeated in the last four months anywhere, right?
And our rule-based legal order! Dont forget about our rule-based legal order!
Mirski: I think the book sort of one of the themes of the book is that there is this sort of understanding among American policy makers that what happens in Latin America is really what matters most and so a large part of the kind of efforts that we uh you know Pioneer at the global level like the League of Nations, or the United Nations, or the IMF, the World Bank - all of these have roots in Latin America and of course that makes sense that’s the region where we’ve been most involved that’s the region where you know uh whatever -- it’s not always fair to describe our attitude towards Europe as isolationist, but uh at least there’s an argument there when it comes to the western hemisphere - there’s just no argument we’ve always been super involved and so so much of I think American foreign policy uh in you know the kind of post World War II era and post even World War One era really did grow out of what we are doing in our region beforehand both good and bad I should say.
Wright: So did you at any point add up all the interventions all the kind of I don’t know what the term would be - extra legal intervention - or or you know in some sense kind of dubious interventions um, how many roughly in in like let’s say uh I don’t know between the the annunciation of the Monroe Doctrine, even though there wasn’t much enforcement of it for the for the first couple of decades - uh say through World War One?
Mirski: It’s tricky to give an exact number partially because it’s a question of defining terms uh so one of the kind of prevailing practices of the time was that if there’s like a civil war happening in a country, you can land your forces to protect your citizens but they essentially just you know stay around whatever part of the city or citizens are in and don’t really intervene in the rest of the conflict, um if you include stuff like that - as qualifying as a use of force or you know use or threat of force, uh I don’t know what the exact number is but uh it’s going to be something uh I don’t know if it’s triple digits but it’s going to be approaching triple digits.
Wright: Wow.
Mirski: I can say from 1898 to 1918 we were using Force against one of our neighbors an average of almost twice a year um and again some of those are relatively more minor uses of force to the extent that’s a you know way that you can describe this - others you know it’s occupation of entire nations and so it really sort of spans the spectrum and depends depends on what you kind of define as uh and as an extra legal intervention
Wright: Mhm - wha--
Mirski: And of cours -- oh go ahead!
Wright: No go ahead, go ahead!
Mirski: Well I was gonna say there’s also the difficulty of what counts as extra legal, so yeah you know under the Platt Amendment we had the right to intervene in Cuba as a legal matter, I mean one thing that [Elihu] Root was very very concerned about, as a one of the best lawyers of his generation was having a legal basis for doing everything the United States did. That was actually in large part why the Platt Amendment was framed the way it was.
Um and you know the Platt Amendment itself I would - I think it’s fair to count it as a intervention in the sense that the U.S. told the Cubans look you can either let us continue occupying you or even annex you or you can gain your freedom with these conditions and the Cubans chose the latter not exactly a fair choice from the Cuban perspective.
Wright: And we got a pretty sweet deal with the Panama Canal 3D [?] too, I would say or whatever it’s called now. Is it the case I understand it that okay so we signed that treaty but then the person who signed it on the other side wasn’t even an actual Panamanian is that right? Well, he was, he was this like French entrepreneur or something, who can make money if we signed it - so okay, you sign it.
Mirski: Yeah, the Panama Canal story is just one of the I mean just stranger than fiction I think, through and through there was this gentleman uh by the name of […]
[…]
Bunau-Varilla, I was right okay so he um so he’s this Frenchman who’s involved in - so the French would try to build the Panama Canal decades before the United States did, they fail it goes bankrupt. Bunau-Varilla is this Frenchman who was involved in the effort and he’s primarily an engineer but for a variety of reasons he becomes dedicated to having this canal finished under any means uh kind of any way possible and he concludes that the only way to do that is to have the United States build the canal.
The problem is that Colombia essentially doesn’t like the terms that uh it’s representative in the United States Representative negotiated for the Panama canal and so Colombia rejects it -
Wright: And Panama is it I don’t know if you said this and I missed it or Panama is it that - or what we call Panama, was part of Colombia at that point.
Mirski: Yeah sorry I should have mentioned that so Panama is still part of Colombia at this point and uh Colombia rejects the treaty and Roosevelt is furious - Americans in general are annoyed and Bunau-Varilla basically decides uh that the only way to get the Americans to build the canal is for Panama to declare its independence and then to sign a canal treaty with the Americans. And the Panamanians are essentially on board with this, because from their perspective having a canal through their state is going to be a massive economic boon it’s going to make their state kind of important for a variety of reasons and so uh you know, skipping some of the sort of details the panamanians do eventually launch this revolution - uh Bunau-Varilla is heavily involved - he finances a large part of it um it’s always hard to know how seriously to take him because his book is one of the most, I mean his autobiography is just one of the most like puffed up pieces of sort of self aggrandisment you can imagine, but it actually as far as historians can tell, is likely mostly accurate - um but panamanians declare independence and the United States essentially sends eight uh warships down to prevent the Colombians from retaking the province, and so the United States helps Panama uh declare independence at this point - however uh you know the US basically turns to the panamanians and says okay let’s negotiate this treaty and Bunau-Varilla in exchange for his help made the Panamanian uh uh secessionists promise to make him their first representative of the panamananian state in Washington - and they know that this is a bad idea so they immediately send some actual panamanians up to Washington to do the actual negotiations but Bunau-Varilla doesn’t really care very much about Panama does not really care at all about Panama getting a good deal in this treaty or anything like that and so he immediately turns around to Secretary of State John Milton Hay and says listen I’ll sign on whatever terms you want the stronger you can make them for the United States the better because we have to get this through the U.S. Senate and Panama is not in a position to object, because the only reason it’s independent is because the U.S. warships are off its Coast and so uh Bunau-Varilla and Hay sign this treaty, that is just enormously favorable to the United States. When it goes before Congress, one of its opponents - basically says I’ve never seen a treaty that is this favorable to the United States um and you know the U.S. Senate uh passes it and by the time the Panamanians arrive it’s just too late it’s already been signed.
So strange, that we cant hold those kind of debates in Europe right now, right? I mean, we all know this is a conflict based on conflicting value systems right?
Right?
Drei meiner ehemaligen Psychologen würden sagen, beschäftigen sie sich doch nicht mehr so damit.
Meine Psychiaterin würde sagen, sie neigen zu Überinterpretation -- und ich würde einfach nur Ursula Werther-Pietsch, Mitunterzeichnerin der alpbachnahen Initiative “Unsere Sicherheit” (Die sich gegen die österreichische Neutralität ausspricht, und bisher zwei offene Briefe verfasst hat, die dann später Johannes Kopf (selbst ebenfalls Teil der Initiative) beworben hat, und das bereits eine Woche nachdem er zu einem Panel in der Österreichisch Amerikanischen Gesellschaft geladen wurde) zitieren:
Die Gründung einer neuen Schule des Multilateralismus, die realistische und idealistische Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik vereint, wird zur Diskussion gestellt.
Geopolitik nicht als Leitmotiv sehen
Internationale Beziehungen sollen nichts anderes als den täglichen Bedürfnissen im politischen Leben dienen; ihr innenpolitischer Bezug ist daher evident. Allerdings nicht aus der üblichen Perspektive, nämlich dem “Lippenablesen”, um “politisch zu punkten” unter dem Deckmäntelchen des Bürgers als Souverän. Nein, umgekehrt soll Geopolitik, also das Spiel von Machtinteressen auf globaler Ebene, als integraler Teil von menschlicher Sicherheit gesehen werden, als eine gewichtige Dimension, nicht aber als Leitmotiv oder gar übergeordnetes Axiom.
Weil realistische Schule in Foreign Relations Theory das geht ja nicht mehr, das ist ja Mearsheimer, und wir haben ja gerade gesehen was da selbst bei einem seiner Studenten dabei herauskommt.
Interview in der US-Botschaft in Wien-Alsergrund: Kennedy (l.), Selmayr (M.) und Skoll (r.).
Selmayr: In jeder Krise steckt auch eine Chance. Und es ist bemerkenswert, wie eng die westlichen Mächte seit dem Beginn des Krieges zusammenarbeiten.
Kennedy: Ich möchte einen wichtigen Punkt, das Problem der russischen Desinformation, ansprechen. Eine der wichtigsten Zeitungen der USA, die “Washington Post”, druckt den Slogan “Democracy Dies in Darkness” gleich neben dem Zeitungstitel ab - und diesen Slogan finden Sie natürlich auch im Internet.
Skoll: Der Krieg in der Ukraine ist eine existenzielle Frage. Und zwar nicht nur für die Ukraine, sondern auch für den Rest der Welt.
Mnja - um den Selmayr Duktus zu bedienen - damit brauchen wir uns jetzt über die Ausgewogenheit der Berichterstattung natürlich keine Sorgen mehr zu machen.
Ich hab den Vertreter der Wiener Zeitung mal im Bild markiert - für die die ihn nicht kennen.
Ich hoffe es hat wenigstens Spass gemacht.
edit: Worum ging es bei dem Gespräch?
Letzter Paragraph:
Skoll: Österreich hat sich jahrzehntelang der Brückenfunktion zwischen Ost und West gerühmt, dafür brauchte man gute Beziehungen zu Moskau. Aber: Wir leben im Jahr 2023. Nun gibt es Krieg in Europa, und wir können nicht mehr zurück zum Status quo ante. Das erfordert ein schmerzhaftes intellektuelles, emotionales und auch ökonomisches Umdenken. Und da erlaube ich mir noch einmal, einen Appell für Qualitätsjournalismus in die Runde zu werfen. Darüber muss debattiert werden. Und dafür müssen die Bürgerinnen und Bürger Zugang zu guten Information haben, was vor sich geht und wie die Welt sich ändert. Ohne erstklassige Informationsquellen, ohne Qualitätsjournalismus ist das nicht möglich.
Großbritanniens Botschafterin in Österreich, Lindsay Skoll muss es entgangen sein, dass in Österreich keine Qualitätszeitung mehr existiert die in ihrer Blattlinie nicht auf “die Ukraine muss gewinnen, da verlieren keine Option ist” eingeschwenkt ist. Die Wiener Zeitung war die letzte.
Hier der damalige Leitartikel in der Wiener Zeitung: click
Er sollte dann aber dazusagen, was das bedeutet. Ein EU-Land, das nicht bereit ist, mit den Partnern für Frieden und Freiheit zu kämpfen, gehört nicht zum inneren Kern einer Gemeinschaft.
Wie kann man die Bevölkerung eigentlich noch verarschen?
Die Ukraine muss weiter kämpfen, weil sie ohne die Gebiete im Osten nicht überlebensfähig wäre? ACH.
Ist ja erstaunlich.
Kennen wir auch von der westlichen Medienberichterstattung. Aber die haben alle auf die ukrainische PR - und lieber nicht auf eine zeitnah erschienene Studie der Rand Cooperation gehört.
Laut dem Avoiding a Long War - RAND Corporation Bericht der Rand Corporation ist die “besondere ökonomische Bedeutung der Landbrücke” tatsächlich erfunden.
Referenzen:
Table 3
linke Seite (Benefit):
Greater ukrainian territorial control is possible
rechte Seite (Explaination):
Benefits of greater Ukrainian territorial control are moderately or less significant (see Table 1).
sowie:
Table 1
linke Seite (Benefit):
Ukraine could become more economically viable, and less dependent on external assistance
rechte Seite (Explaination):
Areas under Russian control as of December 2022 are unlikely to prove hugely economically significant.
Auch der zweite Aspekt, dass man ja Sewastopol erobern müsse, da man ansonsten sein Getreide nicht verschiffen könne - kompletter Bullshit.
Diesmal übrigens nicht von der Ukraine, sondern von den US erfunden, wenn ich nach Chronologie gehe und der ersten Person mehr Glauben schenke die das Thema im Ukraine Diskurs in zeitlicher Abfolge angerissen hat. Überraschung: Jeffrey Sachs.
Das komplette Argument geht übrigens wie folgt:
Freien Warenverkehr kann man im Zuge eines Friedensvertrages aushandeln, und je nachdem wie der gestaltet wird, und wen man als Garanten dafür verpflichten kann (Türkei), kann das durchaus auch länger halten, als bis zur nächsten russischen Aufrüstung.
Und die Hafenstadt (Odessa) hat die Ukraine bereits. Dh. auch dort könnte man eine ukrainische Marine stationieren.
The Kakhovka Hydropower Plant incident will stop water supply to 31 cropland irrigation systems in the Dnepropetrovsk region and Kiev-controlled parts of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, which irrigated 584,000 hectares of land and yielded about 4 million tonnes of grains and legumes worth of about $1.5 billion in 2021, the Ukrainian media said with the reference to the Ukrainian Agrarian Policy Ministry.
Dass die aktuell von Russland besetzte Region reich an Rohstoffen und der Industriegürtel der Ukraine waren ist korrekt. Aber reich an Rohstoffen für die Ukraine bedeutet bei mehreren dort förderbaren Rohstoffen - “sie reichen trotzdem keine 30 Jahre für den Eigenverbrauch”. Dh. auch das ist relativ. Was uns wieder zu Rand bringt.
Also was ist hier das out? Glauben wir wieder nicht, dass ein Friedensvertrag halten kann? Na dann müssen wir halt weiterkämpfen, aber dann bitte nicht wegen einem komplett erfundenen “alternativlos” Argument.
Warum nimmt man eigentlich ukrainische Propaganda überhaupt noch als Grundlage für irgendetwas? Ist ja nicht so, dass die ökonomischen Rahmenbedingungen in dem Fall nicht auch andere Institute beurteilen könnten.
- Jetzt wirds mit der Länge des Videos aber auch nicht besser -
denn Werner Fasslabend zeigt noch mal eindrucksvoll, dass man zwar Murmansk in seine Folien nehmen kann -
Im Norden gibt es den Hafen Murmansk. Er liegt im skandinavischen Teil Russlands und ist dank des Golfstroms eisfrei, aber sowohl militärisch als auch handelstechnisch gesehen sehr weit ab vom Schuss.
aber den dann fälschlicher Weise als den wichtigsten eisfreien Hafen Russlands bezeichnen kann, während man den in Sewastopol VOLLKOMMEN ignoriert.
Sewastopol auf der Krim: eisfreier Hafen, strategisch günstig gelegen
Das ist nicht erst seit Wladimir Putin so, sondern im Grunde schon seit dem 18. Jahrhundert, als Russland die Halbinsel im Krieg mit dem Osmanischen Reich unter seine Kontrolle brachte und 200 Jahre lang behielt.
Die Krim ist für Russland deshalb so wichtig, weil der dortige Hafen Sewastopol einer der wenigen eisfreien Häfen Russlands ist – zumindest auf der europäischen Seite.
[…]
Sewastopol: militärisch und wirtschaftlich für Russland von großer Bedeutung
Da ist sie ja wieder, die lustige selektive Selbstzensur, wenn man heute - nach einem öffentlichen Auftritt - noch Teil der Debatte bleiben möchte…
Und welche unmögliche Quelle (neben der US eigenen RAND Corporation) habe ich da schon wieder zitiert? SWR - Wissen, Geostrategie. Unfassbar, wie konnte ich nur.
Naja, als Werner Fasslabend muss man das natürlich nicht wissen, ich mein das ist einfach nicht sein Fachgebiet.
edit: Oh sorry, ich sollte vielleicht auf auf die Reaktion des Publikums kurz eingehen. Also bitte: Klatschklatschklatschklatschklatsch.
Anne Applebaum: “Tim wanted one last word, so I will give it to him.”
Timothy Snyder “I think that was a beautiful summation by Serhii, I just wanted to say what is new is often old, I mean, that the thing that we are seeing in the form of president Selenskyj, but not only, is the unashamed articulation of values - right? The unashamed articulation of values. And that is an ancient tradition. I mean, thats a classical tradition. To speak and to exemplify physical courage, and to associate taking risks with democracy, is a classical tradition. Its very old, but its new in the sense, that we’ve forgotten about it. It’s new in the sense, that the way the russians have treated everything as critique, everything as subject to be undermined, and how we have kind of gone for that too, we’ve come to accept, that maybe nothing is really true, and maybe nothing is worth sacrificing, and maybe ethics dont really matter - and so I think what is one of the things that is new in this war is something that is actually very old. The recognition, that some things are worth fighting for, and that while you are fighting for them its worth trying to say what they are.”
The thing that hits you right over the head here as soon as the talk starts is that the composition of the panel is off.
Because you have three historians who all do the same thing, and start layering their “arguments” with almost random emotionally charged phrases - all ending up in different places, giving different emotionally charged, constructed arguments, trying to pick up and establish different buzzwords, and the result is that you can easily clue in on what is happening here.
So if you ever wanted to know how mass propaganda is crafted, this is how. The entire event has the feeling of a sermon, half of the audience is clinked out after the first 20 minutes, but its mostly important that you film Wolfgang Ischinger parttaking in the event.
Just understand that this is prefaced by Applebaum to be a talk of three of the most important historians of our time -- and then try to pick up on what they argued this war is, or was about nine months ago, and how much is actually relevant now that you look at the video nine months later.
It was a sign of Snyder’s standing that the YES conference was only the second-highest-profile stop on his Kyiv itinerary. The main reason for his trip, Snyder told me, during one of three long conversations we had recently, was a private meeting with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Just so you see what the prominent historians actual performance is, and how its portraied in the Guardian in this case.
Its… Really quite something.
Victor Pinchuck Foundation.
edit: Now all thats left to do is to hope for a Rauscher at the austrian newspaper Der Standard, to craft opinion pieces for three weeks in a row (1,2,3), that the austrian government, as well the austrian opposition listens to the wrong experts in the Ukraine case, and that they’d need to listen to Snyder, and Fiaona Hill (1,2) and Krastev (nothing against Krastev) instead.
After the opinion journalist has been invited to the IWMVienna, and then namedroped there from the stage.
Sagt der Erste: Ich bin Robert Treichler, Leiter Ressort Außenpolitik, “profil” - ich habe im bisherigen Kriegsverlauf folgende Interviews und Leitartikel produziert:
profil fragt den US-Generalleutnant a. D. Ben Hodges, wie riskant die Lage ist: Steht die Welt vor einem Atomkrieg? Oder blufft Putin?
Treichler: Was erwarten Sie militärisch in den kommenden Monaten? Wird der Vormarsch der Ukraine durch den Winter gestoppt?
Hodges: Das glaube ich nicht. Die Ukrainer sind ja nicht aus Florida, so wie ich. Sie werden versuchen, den Druck auf die russischen Kräfte aufrechtzuerhalten, damit die sich nicht neu aufstellen können. Die Russen sind erschöpft und verwundbar, auch auf der logistischen Ebene. Ich vermute, die Ukraine wird die russischen Streitkräfte bis zum Ende dieses Jahres auf die Linie zurückdrängen, wo diese vor dem 24. Februar waren. Und Mitte des kommenden Jahres werden die ukrainischen Soldaten auf der Krim sein.
Es zeichnet sich ab, dass der Autokrat im Kreml nichts von dem, was er gewaltsam anstrebte, erreichen wird. Die Ukraine wird ein demokratischer, prowestlicher Staat bleiben und irgendwann der EU beitreten. Sie ist zudem drauf und dran, ihr Staatsgebiet zurückzuerobern. Die territorialen Gewinne, die Russland am Ende verzeichnen könnte, werden, wie es aussieht, minimal sein – vielleicht auch inexistent.
Doch etwas sprach immer dagegen, dass jemand wie Wladimir Putin langfristig Erfolg hat. Zwei Tage nach dem Einmarsch Russlands in die Ukraine schrieb ich im profil-Leitartikel: „Glücklicherweise hat die Autokratie einen inhärenten Haken. Autokraten sind, weil sie ohne Opposition, ohne politischen Wechsel und damit ohne Kontrolle und Gegengewicht agieren, fehleranfällig, rücksichtslos und deshalb am Ende verhasst.“
src: click
[In der Tat, was für ein Glück. Desshalb können Autokratien ja auch nicht erfolgreich sein.]
Jetzt geh ich auf nen Dessertwein als Absacker ins Cafe.
Sagt der Zweite: Ich bin Ralph Janik: Völkerrechtler, mit Jugend in Mercatornähe, ich war die erste Person in Österreich die in Kommentaren im Standard, nach einem Statement des ECFR im März 2022 Pazifisten (Franzobel) und außenpolitische Realisten (Precht) öffentlich verhetzt hat.
Dazu passen auch die unterschiedlichen Aufrufe in Richtung Ukraine, sich doch besser zu ergeben. Frieden schlägt Gerechtigkeit, man müsse der Realität eben ins Auge sehen: Waffenlieferungen an einen unterlegenen Staat ziehen den Krieg und das damit verbundene Leid nur unnötig in die Länge, wie der Philosoph Richard David Precht oder der Schriftsteller Franzobel kritisieren. […]
Viel Anlass zur Skepsis, wenig Hoffnung auf Frieden. Die Forderungen, aufzugeben, sagen wohl mehr über uns als über die tatsächlichen ukrainischen Handlungsoptionen. (Ralph Janík, 3.4.2022)
Ich bin auch der Jurist der der österreichischen Bevölkerung erklären durfte, dass auch wenn die österreichische Regierung keine Zahlen im Bezug auf Beitragszahlungen im Rahmen der europäischen Friedensfazilität veröffentlicht, dank der Vertragskonstruktion der “Konstruktiven Enthaltung” definitiv kein österreichischer Euro in Waffenkäufe für die Ukraine investiert wird:
Sagt der Moderator Walter Feichtinger (Präsident, Center für Strategische Analysen) -
Burschen, so jung kommen wir nicht mehr zusammen, wann schaffen wir die Österreichische Neutralität ab? Ich mein wir sind europaweit eh nur mehr 4%, damit man das mal versteht!
Sagt niemand im Saal: Das hier war der Einsatz der Österreichisch Amerikanischen Gesellschaft in dem Zusammenhang:
Und um eine neue Sicherheitspolitik in Sinne aller Beteiligten zu realisieren, brauchen wir jedoch zuerst eine neue geopolitische Theorie, denn die drei aktuellen Schulen widersprechen uns in dem was wir konzeptuell wollen diametral (Realismus, Liberalismus, Konstruktivimus) - aber dafür haben wir ja extra Ursula Werther-Pietsch verpflichtet, Mitunterzeichnerin der alpbachnahen Initiative “Unsere Sicherheit”. (Die sich gegen die österreichische Neutralität ausspricht, und bisher zwei offene Briefe verfasst hat, die dann später Johannes Kopf (selbst ebenfalls Teil der Initiative) beworben hat, und das bereits eine Woche nachdem er zu einem Panel in der Österreichisch Amerikanischen Gesellschaft geladen wurde (Future of work, you know… - um es im kopfschen Duktus zu sagen). Weil Kopf und Denker, das passt ja gut zusammen. Also in der öffentlichen Betrachtung.
Die Gründung einer neuen Schule des Multilateralismus, die realistische und idealistische Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik vereint, wird zur Diskussion gestellt.
Geopolitik nicht als Leitmotiv sehen
Internationale Beziehungen sollen nichts anderes als den täglichen Bedürfnissen im politischen Leben dienen; ihr innenpolitischer Bezug ist daher evident. Allerdings nicht aus der üblichen Perspektive, nämlich dem “Lippenablesen”, um “politisch zu punkten” unter dem Deckmäntelchen des Bürgers als Souverän. Nein, umgekehrt soll Geopolitik, also das Spiel von Machtinteressen auf globaler Ebene, als integraler Teil von menschlicher Sicherheit gesehen werden, als eine gewichtige Dimension, nicht aber als Leitmotiv oder gar übergeordnetes Axiom.
Nein, Moment - stellt sich keine Frage mehr. Das wars.
Soll ich jetzt den Rechtspopulisten in Österreich viel Glück wünschen, damit das in der medialen Betrachtung nicht einfach nur unter den Tisch gekehrt wird?
Oh ich habs! Ich nehms mit meinen letzten drei Psychologen! Beschäftigen sie sich einfach nicht so sehr mit dem Thema! Dann wird alles besser!
edit: Oh, noch etwas - was sagt eigentlich Precht, den man bei dem Thema aus der öffentlichen Debatte gedrängt hat?
Oh das hier:
bei 1:18:00 in. (Den Rest der Veranstaltung ertrage ich teilweise nicht, aber Precht spricht hier zum Thema.)
- and I wanted to ask if the OSCE could maybe become a non consensus based dispute settlement organization!
Oh, dear Lady with the Fulbright fellowship from the institute across the street -
The Fulbright Program, including the Fulbright–Hays Program, is one of several United States Cultural Exchange Programs with the goal of improving intercultural relations, cultural diplomacy, and intercultural competence between the people of the United States and other countries through the exchange of persons, knowledge, and skills.
- of course we can think about making what the OSCE does non consensus based, and only based on majority decisions maybe, but we have to leave in a few organisational systems that also induce trust.
Huh, would the US benefit from a mediation organization to work alongside the new “value based trading system”, they want to replace the WTO based system with? A non consensus based OSCE maybe?
Its always wonderful to see, that as soon as a Fulbright fellow makes a suggestion on restructuring your international organization, there suddenly is this constructive “can do” spirit filling the room.
Och nichts Wichtiges, die deutschsprachigen Medien berichten wie üblich nur “Je länger dieser Mensch im Kreml ist, desto größer wird die Katastrophe” - und lassen den Rest der Rede einfach mal unter den Tisch fallen. Die Selenskyj diesmal wieder auf russisch gehalten hat, um die russische Bevölkerung einen Tag nach dem Putsch noch schön mit seinen manigfaltigen Argumenten zu überzeugen zu revoltieren - also hören wir ihm doch einfach mal zu:
Automatisch generierte Untertitel übersetzt mit Deepl.com:
I wish you health, dear Ukrainians I wish health to all the people of the world.
Today is a day where there is definitely no silence and definitely the world needs leadership today. We saw that the masters of Russia do not control anything at all, just complete chaos, complete lack of any predictability and this is on Russian territory which is heavily armed.
We all remember when in the year 21, when the Russian leader threatened the the world with some kind of ultimatums.
He was trying to show some kind of strength.
The year 22 showed that he was confused with the power of his illusion and the lies he was fed by the Kremlin.
The Kremlin is capable of any kind of terror, they are capable of any stupidity, but they can’t provide a fraction of the necessary control and the problem is that in one day they have actually lost a number of their cities and showed all the Russian bandits, mercenaries, oligarchs and anyone else how easy it is to capture Russian cities where there are likely arsenals of weapons.
It is very important now, that no one in the world is silent because they are afraid of this Russian chaos, all the actions of leaders can now be historic, every word of journalists is worth its weight in gold.
We must clearly name the source of the problem If someone in the world is trying to lull the situation: The illusion that the Kremlin is able to restore control, it only postpones the problem until the next breakthrough of chaos is even more dangerous.
We all know the first solution: The world should not be afraid, we know what protects us is protecting us.
Only our unity can protect Ukraine to protect Europe from any Russian forces, no matter who is in charge, commands them, we will protect the security of the eastern flank of Europe, it rests only on our defense and that is why every manifestation of support for our defense is support for your defense in the free world.
Ukrainian soldiers, Ukrainian guns, Ukrainian tanks, Ukrainian missiles - this is all that protects Europe from such marching forces like we see today on Russian territory and when we address the F-16 or the ATACAMS, we develop our common defense.
Implementation is what is needed now to provide all the weapons necessary for defense. [Selenskyj learned a new word - implementation. His language skills are getting better every day…]
Secondly, everything should be a real right.
It should be frankly said to everyone in the world that all Russia’s criminal actions against Ukraine were and are wrong and we all have to be guided by our common security priorities, NATO’s security priorities. NATO’s security priorities are not just a word though or a set of formal promises.
Promises, are a reliable guarantee for all that peace will not be destroyed without Ukraine. Such grandiose statements are worthless.
In July, the Freedom Summit is a historic chance for real decisions without looking back at Russia.
Any nation that borders on Russia really supports this, and I will say the third thing - in Russian:
In the Kremlin obviously the student is afraid and probably hiding somewhere.
He does not show himself, he is not sure that he is not in Moscow, he calls from somewhere to beg for something.
He knows something, he’s afraid because he created this threat, all the evil, all the losses, all the hatred, he’s the one and the longer he can keep running between his bunkers, the more you lose, you all lose.
What are we going to do? We are Ukrainians defending our country. We will defend our freedom. We will not be silent and will not be inactive.
It will be our victory in this war, unequivocally.
And what will you do until that?
The longer your [addressing russians in russian] troops are on ukrainian soil, the more destruction they will bring to Russia, the longer this person is in the Kremlin, the bigger the disaster will be.
Now I’ll switch to my native language. Thank you to our soldiers Thank you to everyone who is now defeating the occupiers. Thank you to the air force for protecting our skies. Glory to Ukraine.
Was für ein Friedensheld dieser Selenskyj doch ist. Ein Garant des Friedens.
Dann heute lieber doch nur einen Satz aus seiner Rede in den deutschsprachigen Medien drucken. Irgendwas Unverfängliches…
edit: Hey! Der Standard überrascht und bringt diesmal mehr! Wie kommts? Die Ukrainische Regierung hat ausgewählte Teile der Rede auf Englisch auf Twitter veröffentlicht.
und mit einer Söldnerarmee Richtung Moskau zu marschieren.
Gehn wir sie doch der Reihe mal durch.
- Delegitimierung der russischen Führungseliten check
- Eröffnung einer Querfront mitten in einer ukrainischen Gegenoffensive check
- Verunsicherung der russischen Streitkräfte an der Front und über die gesamte Führungsstruktur hinweg check
- Delegitimierung der Strukturen russischer Militärmacht im globalen Süden, durch die meuternde schillernde Persönlichkeit selbst check
- Veröffentlichung der Marschroute auf westlichen Social Media Kanälen check
- Aufsplitterung der Operationsplanung in mitten einer Gegenoffensive check
- Ausdünnung der Verteidigungskraft der Russen im Süden der Ukraine wo demnächst der Übergang über den Dnjpr so sehr trocknet, dass du da mit Sandalen drüberhüpfen kannst. In wenigen Wochen. check
- Russland das jetzt andere Probleme hat als sich um 15km weggeschwemmte Minengürtel und neue Stellungen im Süden zu sorgen. check
- Verunsicherung der Krimbevölkerung bezüglich der Legitimität des russischen Machtanspruchs, während ihr das Wasser ausgeht. check
- Den dümmsten Trottel aller Zeiten für eine Rebellenoperation ausgewählt - wenn er das was er aktuell behauptet tatsächlich ernst meint. check
Prigoschin - paraphrasiert:
“Wir marschieren nur gerade gegen Moskau, weil Schoigu, der geflohen ist wie eine Frau, mich und meine Männer mit Raketen beschossen hat, worauf ich sie dazu gebracht habe zu meutern, nachdem ich 2000 Leichen aufgebart habe um sie zu motivieren, und wir haben eine der 10 größten russischen Städte eingenommen, weil wir ja immer noch auf der Seite von Putin sind, aber gegen Schoigu marschieren, weil ich dann denke - nach dem Powerstruggle von der russischen Führung mit offenen Armen zum obersten Militärführer berufen zu werden, weil ich mich durch meine rationale und strategische Operationsführung auch so sehr dafür empfohlen habe, dass da eigentlich alle der selben Meinung sein werden, während denen gar keine Wahl bleibt. Desshalb bin ich auch auf das Narrativ aufgesprungen, dass Russland massenhaft seine eigenen Soldaten tötet, was ja wirklich eine Schande ist, und was wir bei Wagner niemals selbst machen würden ---”
wobei einen großen Vorteil hat das natürlich. Man bekommt als Prigoschin endlich seine Home Story im Standard! click
- Nach der “vollkommen rationalen” Aktion im Sinne seiner Einheit, noch kurz verlautbaren “Wir werden alles um uns herum zerstören”, weil man ja damit rechnet in Moskau zum nächsten Militärführer ernannt zu werden. check
- Kiews Propaganda zu fördern, dass man in der Ukraine davon ausgehe, dass sich Russland seit heute im Bürgerkrieg befinde. check
Ich würde sagen, noch nie war eine verdeckte Aktion Moskaus so eindeutig als solche zu erkennen, oder?
Also Freunde eines nicht allzulangen Aufreibungskrieges, es geht wohl demnächst auf die Krim, denn das von Wagner eingenommene Rostow am Don ist ein wichtiger Versorgungshub der selbigen.
Schoigu habe angeordnet, die Leichen von 2.000 Wagner-Kämpfern in einer Leichenhalle zu verbergen, sagte Prigoschin weiter. “Wir waren bereit, Zugeständnisse an das Verteidigungsministerium zu machen, unsere Waffen abzugeben”, sagte Prigoschin. Dennoch hätten “sie Raketenangriffe auf unsere hinteren Feldlager ausgeführt”.
Seine 25.000 Männer werden nun aufklären, warum solch eine Willkür im Land herrsche. “Wer versucht, uns Widerstand zu leisten, den werden wir als Bedrohung betrachten und sofort töten”, drohte Prigoschin. Seinen Angaben zufolge ist Schoigu extra an die nahe der ukrainischen Grenze gelegene Millionenstadt Rostow-am-Don gekommen, um die Operation zur Vernichtung Wagners zu leiten. “Um 21.00 Uhr ist er geflohen - feige wie ein Weib - um nicht zu erklären, warum er Hubschrauber hat abheben und Raketenschläge durchführen lassen, um unsere Jungs zu töten. Dieses Biest wird aufgehalten”, so Prigoschin.
edit2: Ende einer fröhlichen Expedition Richtung Moskau?
Prigoschin will offenbar nicht weiter vorrücken
Das wären spektakuläre Nachrichten: Nach Angaben des belarussischen Präsidentenbüros hat Wagner-Chef Prigoschin zugestimmt, die Truppenbewegungen der Wagner-Söldner in Russland einzustellen. Eine Bestätigung von Prigoschin selbst gibt es dazu vorerst nicht.
Dem Medium “Meduza” zufolge bestätigt Prigoschin, nicht mehr weiter vorrücken zu wollen. Die Wagner-Söldner drehen einer Audio-Botschaft von Prigoschin zufolge um.
Der russische Militärunternehmer Jewgeni Prigoschin beordert seine Wagner-Truppen zurück in ihre Stützpunkte. Damit wolle er Blutvergießen vermeiden, heißt in einer Audio-Botschaft von Prigoschin am Samstag. Nach den Angaben des belarussischen Präsidialbüros hatte sich Prigoschin zuvor bereit erklärt, den Vormarsch seiner Kämpfer in Russland zu stoppen. Er sei zu einer Deeskalation der Situation bereit, erklärt das Büro auf seinem offiziellen Kanal beim Kurznachrichtendienst Telegram.
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