harlekin.me

Sie­he: click

Infra­struk­tur­auf­bau soll­te jetzt begin­nen, auch falls Russ­land den Krieg noch gewin­nen soll­te (dh. unab­hän­gig vom anti­zi­pier­ten Aus­gang des Krie­ges). Es bräuch­te Zuschüs­se (Grants) und kei­ne Kre­di­te. Die­se könn­ten über Import­steu­ern auf Gas in die EU ein­ge­ho­ben wer­den. Die EU allei­ne ist zu klein um die Wie­der­auf­bau­ar­beit zu stem­men. Neben dezen­tra­le Lage­r­infra­struk­tur, stellt man am bes­ten Luft­ab­wehr Waf­fen, und hofft dar­auf, dass Russ­land kei­ne Ver­tei­ler­kno­ten angreift. Auf das ein­ge­fro­re­ne Ver­mö­gen von Olig­ar­chen hät­te man über völ­ker­recht­li­che Mit­tel Zugriff, auf das des rus­si­schen Staa­tes (direkt) nicht. Der Infra­struk­tur­auf­bau müs­se jetzt begin­nen um den Export von Getrei­de und ande­ren Export­gü­tern über den Wes­ten zu ermög­lich. Das Pro­blem sind aber bereits Nach­fol­ge­ef­fek­te, wie dass Chi­na den Export von Phos­phat­dün­ger ein­ge­stellt hat, Russ­land den von Ammo­ni­um­ni­trat (sie­he: click), Euro­pa dann 40 Pro­zent sei­ner Stick­stoff­dün­ger­her­stel­lung wegen hoher Gas­prei­se (sie­he: click), Indi­en dar­auf­hin den Export von Wei­zen ver­bo­ten hat (sie­he: click), daher seit einer Woche die Rei­s­prei­se steil anstei­gen… (click)

Aber jetzt müs­sen halt die Inves­ti­tio­nen in Schie­nen­in­fra­struk­tur in der Ukrai­ne begin­nen, damit man den Wei­zen des letz­ten Jah­res expor­tiert bekommt. Die Ukrai­ne spricht in der Zwi­schen­zeit von einem mög­li­chen Kriegs­en­de in zwei bis sechs Mona­ten. Habeck glaubt dar­an ganz fest. (Sie­he: click)

Blin­ken spricht von einem Krieg der auch noch 2023 andau­ern könn­te (click).

Und die US Gene­ral­schaft vor dem Kon­gress von meh­re­ren Jah­ren. (sie­he: click, sie­he auch: click)

Hof­fen wir mal das die Nahrungsmittel-Produktion im nächs­ten Jahr nicht von aktu­ell expo­nen­ti­ell anstei­gen­den Dün­ger­mit­tel­prei­sen beein­träch­tig wird… Da wir jetzt bereits jetzt dar­an den­ken Infra­struk­tur für den Export der ukrai­ni­schen Ern­te des letz­ten Jah­res zu bauen.

edit: Irgend­wie auch ein biss­chen toll, die Land­wirt­schafts­kam­mer Rheinland-Pfalz muss­te in der Zwi­schen­zeit bei den Ska­len­ni­veaus und beim Zeich­nen der Kur­ven krea­tiv wer­den: click

the bub­blies of mind rea­ding Putin for­tu­ne tel­lers. “Becau­se he’s a KGB ope­ra­ti­ve, he knows you have to have con­tin­gen­cy planning.”

(edit: Video wur­de mitt­ler­wei­le off­line genom­men, hier (im ein­ge­bet­te­ten Video) ist noch ein Teil zu sehen: click)
(edit: Das Video wur­de in einer ande­ren Fas­sung wie­der in vol­ler Län­ge online gestellt. Video­link im Bei­trag wur­de von mir ersetzt. Das hier war der alte.)

Might be a bit unfair, becau­se it is Fio­na Hill (the BEST of the mind rea­ding Putin for­tu­ne tel­lers), but nevertheless… (Her four stone sta­tu­es theo­ry of how Putin real­ly thinks at the end of the talk is priceless…)

Nar­ra­ti­ve goes as fol­lows: Becau­se it was the ide­al moment to attack from the rus­si­an per­spec­ti­ve, and Putin was unab­le to fathom a dif­fe­rent out­co­me, becau­se he defi­nes natio­na­li­ty eth­ni­cal­ly and not ideo­lo­gi­cal­ly, he inva­ded, and was cer­tain, this would be a repeat of the annex­a­ti­on of cri­mea, which is also why he sent in poli­ce for­ces -- but then wait for it, he doesnt think that its gone hor­ri­b­ly wrong, becau­se as a KGB ope­ra­ti­ve, he knows you have to have con­tin­gen­cy plan­ning, and - this is also, why he doesnt want to end the war, becau­se if he ends the war now, it would be a hor­ri­ble dis­as­ter, and, yet he belie­ves he can still win it becau­se of his cra­zy­ness and all the con­tin­gen­cy plan­ning. Got it?

With his goal still being to des­troy the nati­on­hood of Ukrai­ne, one way, or another.

Also of note, becau­se of his iso­la­ti­on rid­den mind, and him being kept out of the loop in terms of actu­al mili­ta­ry strength, pro­bab­ly stu­dy­ing for­mer maps of the soviet uni­on, under cand­le light, during the covid cri­sis -- that gave Putin this grand con­cept of what should be, which is obvious­ly cra­zy (I agree) - and he saw all the indi­ca­tors that poin­ted at euro­pe and the west being in a weak sta­te, and right­ful­ly so (by Hills admission/understanding), he then came up with an attack plan, that then also con­tai­ned con­tin­gen­ci­es, and becau­se he thought, that his mili­ta­ry was so over the top effi­ci­ent, and as he was obvious­ly cra­zy - he sent in poli­ce for­ces, not his mili­ta­ry, as part of the first attack on Kiew.

Nevertheless - the last mili­ta­ry inter­ven­ti­ons of Rus­sia, were aimed at res­to­ring buf­fer ter­ri­to­ry to safe­guard against poten­ti­al inva­si­ons (in geo­stra­te­gic logic - see Zei­han, or others), more so than empi­re buil­ding - as rus­sia is in a demo­gra­phic decli­ne (mea­ning, no peop­le for empi­re buil­ding, which by other experts accounts is also why rus­sia is so unin­te­res­ted in lea­ving any infra­st­ruc­tu­re inta­ct in Ukrai­ne cur­r­ent­ly, becau­se they can’t mobi­li­ze enough poten­ti­al sett­lers in the after­math any­how - but I dig­ress) -- obvious­ly, when the US (nego­tia­ting for Euro­pe) in Decem­ber wasnt wil­ling to budge on Ukrai­ne and Geor­gi­as Nato mem­bers­hip per­spec­ti­ves, which was the key rus­si­an demand at that time, exten­ding his for­mer mode of ope­ra­ti­on, was an insa­ne, cra­zy, covid iso­la­ti­on dri­ven mis­cal­cu­la­ti­on, that no one could have seen com­ing, except the ame­ri­can intel­li­gence ser­vices for mon­ths, from someo­ne who couldnt fathom the con­cept of ideo­lo­gic natio­na­lism, but then he doesnt think he has lost the war yet, becau­se he always had con­tin­gen­ci­es and…

Sor­ry, whe­re do you get you infor­ma­ti­on from again?

… also, its Putin who cant live with a thri­ving demo­cra­cy next to crumb­ling rus­sia (demo­gra­phic and eco­no­mic decli­ne), becau­se - if we go by poli­ti­cal talk show logic, that was the real rea­so­ning behind Putins, now all of a sud­den pret­ty cal­cu­la­ting mind.

Oh, and that Putin publicly shun­ned the lea­der of his for­eign intel­li­gence ser­vice, and then went with the exper­ti­se of the natio­nal intel­li­gence ser­vice ins­tead (posi­ti­on Fio­na Hill holds in this video), first was a dis­play of his utter insa­ni­ty (becau­se he publicly humi­lia­ted the guy), but then also a signal - accord­ing to Julia Iof­fe (state­ment given in the same week). But then, in the past, when he took over cri­mea, parts of the ukrai­ni­an mili­ta­ry in the regi­on tur­ned, becau­se of brib­ing cam­pai­gns spear­hea­ded by the for­eign intel­li­gence office, as he couldnt ima­gi­ne how ideo­lo­gi­cal natio­na­lism works -- but then after he publicly shun­ned the head of the for­eign intel­li­gence office (SVR), becau­se he didnt belie­ve in his reports any­mo­re, and had con­tin­gen­cy plans for what would hap­pen if the SVR fai­led in their brib­ing cam­pai­gns, well - that then was obvious­ly the iso­la­ti­on rid­den, covid fea­ring mind of a mad­man, who couldnt fathom, what would hap­pen, when the ukrai­ni­ans, and much less the euro­peans would stick tog­e­ther, except for that he had con­tin­gen­ci­es, and cur­r­ent­ly is on a PR tour in nordafrica.

Let me end this the fol­lowing way. 

Putin is mocked (thats fair, by the way) for having to switch nar­ra­ti­ves, from “all Ukrai­ni­ans are nazis” to “the Nato would have atta­cked us in the future any­how, so we had to take this step as a pre­ven­ta­ti­ve mea­su­re” (public nar­ra­ti­ve). Which is obvious­ly very pain­ful for rus­sia, becau­se Putin real­ly belie­ved in his own pro­pa­gan­da nar­ra­ti­ve first of all (the one you actively set up, so rus­si­an sol­di­ers have an enemy image (out­group) in their mind, and can be made to shoot at their “bro­ther­ly neigh­bors, spea­king their own lan­guage”), as you start belie­ving your own pro­pa­gan­da after a while, and will now have huge issu­es con­vin­cing the rus­si­an public, that this was all about Nato, now that con­tin­gen­cy plans are in play. So very dif­fi­cult to switch nar­ra­ti­ves, mid war.

Not as if cra­zy Putin, now more and more would beco­me that cal­cu­la­ting Putin with con­tin­gen­cy plan­ning, signa­ling that he suspec­ted the SVR heads brib­ing ope­ra­ti­ons to have fai­led all along.

I mean, you are an expert right? So cra­zy and belie­ving your own his­to­ri­cal pro­pa­gan­da in the moment you deci­de to enga­ge in war, in a small group of eli­tes, so not on your own, but cal­cu­la­ting and cru­de from that point for­ward. So cal­cu­la­ting in fact, that we know, that you know, that we know, that he wouldnt esca­la­te to the use of tac­ti­cal nuclear wea­pons, until rus­sia per­cei­ves its­elf being under risk of being struc­tu­ral­ly defea­ted, and resorts to this as a last response.

Even though three quar­ters of ger­mans a mon­th ago fea­red a nuclear con­fron­ta­ti­on - but that had not­hing to do with the insa­ne mad­man nar­ra­ti­ve that was spread, at the moment Ukrai­ne nee­ded more hea­vy wea­pon­ry (Mul­ti­ple rocket laun­chers, anyo­ne? Sure, tho­se would be grand!), which was set in moti­on by the Atlan­tic coun­cil befo­re Butscha - but then on the talk show cir­cuit was becau­se Selen­skyj beca­me con­vin­ced, that this would be the way for­ward, after Butscha.

Got it? Great.

edit: Uh, uh, (at 10:20 in) Fio­na Hill picked up on the fact, that he actively used the term Novorus­sia in his encra­zed speech, decla­ring the war - but in her explana­ti­on, this is still the cra­zy covid angst rid­den Putin mind fol­lowing his own encra­zed logic, not the his­to­ri­cal con­cept taught in rus­si­an schools for the past fif­ty years or so, that gets the rus­si­an public in line with the “get­ting ukrai­ne back to the mother­land” nar­ra­ti­ve! And thats so obvious, becau­se when Putin then had the cra­zy lea­der of the rus­si­an ortho­dox church expand that into the RUS nar­ra­ti­ve, they were sprea­ding, it was obvious­ly (other experts btw, for­got­ten who exact­ly), the patri­arch of the rus­si­an ortho­dox church hol­ding a spell over Putins cra­zy covid angst rid­den mind, that also had come up with con­tin­gen­cy plan­ning, wit­hin a small group of eli­tes. Except that Fio­na Hill belie­ves the oppo­si­te. So Novorus­sia nar­ra­ti­ve is still cra­zy Putin, but RUS nar­ra­ti­ve is alrea­dy cal­cu­la­ting con­tin­gen­ci­es crafting.

Got it? Gre­at. Just make sure to keep the sto­ries strai­ght, of what was still cra­zy Putin, and what was obvious­ly cal­cu­la­ting KGB Putin with con­tin­gen­cy plan­ning in place, other­wi­se you could be con­si­de­red to have been wrong in the past.

Thank you Fareed Zaka­ria for thanking “I have a dream” guy, thats coor­di­na­ting Ukrai­ni­an rebuil­ding efforts, for intro­du­cing Timo­thy Sny­der, who will be sit­ting next to Kule­ba, next to Zan­ny Min­ton Bed­does. At a Bre­ak­fast Mee­ting of a pri­va­te poli­ti­cal foun­da­ti­on at the WEF in Davos.

With bonus Selen­skyj speech! Hoping for regime chan­ge! (So natu­ral­ly, thats not­hing you report on in wes­tern media. Zaka­ria is so unfa­ced by that, that he asks a “do you belie­ve that its pos­si­ble to nego­tia­te with Putin” ques­ti­on as a direct fol­low up! Soft­ball inco­m­ing! To which the ans­wer given then is “Ukrai­ne will not con­ce­de any ter­ri­to­ry”, becau­se non sequi­turs are so very fun.)

*wiping tears from my eyes..*

The grea­test speech is the one liner from the “open source manage­ment repre­sen­ta­ti­ve” who got con­nec­ted to Elon though. Told as an inspi­ring story.

Becau­se he tea­ches young folks the value of deve­lo­ping “open source soft­ware” (becau­se - you know, social respon­si­bi­li­ty is very popu­lar with the youth), and then get­ting instant­ly con­nec­ted to Elon Musk being pre­sen­ted as a valu­able anec­do­te at a bre­ak­fast mee­ting orga­ni­zed by a pri­va­te fund at the WEF in Davos. You know, doing some­thing good for socie­ty with open source soft­ware, exch­an­ging cell num­bers with Elon at Davos, name­dro­ping that, then having a CNN anchor to intro­du­ce Sny­der to be sit­ting next to Kule­ba at this pri­va­te gathe­ring, next to Min­ton Bed­does, asking soft­ball ques­ti­ons as fol­low ups to the sto­ry of the day (Selen­skyj hopes for regi­me­chan­ge and would pre­fer not to have to nego­tia­te with Putin, which you then dont publish) - is such a boon, but only if you can end that with the speech of a busi­ness donor, fin­ding it impos­si­ble to dif­fe­ren­tia­te the start of WW2 from a world, whe­re rus­sia suf­fers from popu­la­ti­on decli­ne (demo­gra­phi­cal­ly) and has nuclear weapons.

But the grea­test aspect of all, in all of this is, that they were able to buck the you­tube trend, and get three comments in the­re, on you­tube, of young peop­le fin­ding all of this very inspi­ring - and thought pro­vo­king. And not sta­ged at all, even though every per­son was just put on sta­ge long enough to say one sen­tence, and then had to lea­ve for the next “panel” --

Its like the best socie­ty has to offer inte­gri­ty wise, and inspi­ra­tio­nal­ly - combined!

[Switch to german.]

Eine Fra­ge hab ich noch, wie­so war der Rau­scher vom Stan­dard eigent­lich nicht mit dabei, der der öster­rei­chi­schen Regie­rung und der Oppo­si­ti­on (SPÖ), nach sei­nem Besuch beim IWM­Vi­en­na wochen­lang Sny­der emp­foh­len hat, der im Gegen­satz zur deut­schen Bun­des­re­gie­rung und der deut­schen Oppo­si­ti­on (CDU/CSU), die von Revan­chis­mus als Kriegs­grund aus­ge­hen, eine Neo­ko­lo­nia­lis­mus The­se ver­tritt? Dass sich der Rau­scher das bie­ten lässt…

edit: Falls wer den direk­ten Beleg braucht, dass Man­gott im ZIB2 inter­view die Posi­ti­on Selen­sky­js falsch wie­der­gibt - das ist das Video das das ohne jeden ver­blei­ben­den Zwei­fel belegt. Zaka­ria stellt die Fra­ge direkt und unver­klau­su­liert und bekommt eine direk­te Ant­wort. Man ist ja unter Freunden.