DW news story:
Germany must cut reliance on Russian gas, minister says
Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned against Europe’s No.1 economy becoming a “pawn” in Russia’s game. Natural gas stockpiles across the EU are at their lowest in years as tensions over Ukraine intensify.
What did Habeck say?
“We must improve our preparedness for next winter,” the Green Party politician told the newspapers of the Funke Media Group and the French regional daily Ouest-France.
Habeck said the Ukraine crisis is forcing Germany to “create other import opportunities and to diversify its supply, including infrastructural issues.”
“We have to act here and better secure ourselves. If we don’t, we become a pawn in the game [of Russia].”
[…]
Germany remains reliant on Russian gas for over a third of its needs as it phases out coal and nuclear energies.
14th paragraph from the top:
He went on to criticize the gas market for being completely deregulated and hinted that the government may have to play a greater role.
src: click
Why is this important?
Because this is how RT (via fefe, don’t read them otherwise :)) is reporting the same story:
Gazprom hat den Gashahn wieder aufgedreht.
while some EU officials are accusing Gazprom of deliberately withholding supplies. However, Gazprom says additional supplies were not booked before February 2.
Na sowas. Stellt sich raus: Wenn man bei denen was kauft, dann liefern die das auch. Und zwar fristgemäß und in voller Höhe.
Können wir vielleicht jetzt aufhören so zu tun, als sei das Schuld der Russen, dass unsere Konzerne die für unsere Bürger gemeinten Gasreserven zwecks Profitmaximierung auf dem Spotmarkt verhökert haben?
src: click
RT goes into more detail as well:
Gazprom has resumed gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine, booking 109 million cubic meters of daily pipeline capacity, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. Under the five-year contract, which expires in 2024, the company is expected to deliver 40 billion cubic meters of gas per year to Europe via Ukraine. The news triggered a long-anticipated decline in gas prices, with March futures dropping below $900 per thousand cubic meters.
January sales of Russian natural gas outside the former Soviet Union saw a massive drop of 41.3% year-on-year, while the country’s overall production has increased, Russian energy major Gazprom reported on Tuesday.
European inventory levels have reportedly sunk to historic lows over the past several months, sending energy prices in the region soaring, while some EU officials are accusing Gazprom of deliberately withholding supplies. However, Gazprom says additional supplies were not booked before February 2.
“The Company’s gas deliveries are carried out as requested by consumers in full compliance with contractual obligations,” Gazprom said in a press release.
Gazprom said earlier this month it hadn’t booked any monthly transit capacity via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline [the one going through Ukraine] for February. However, the company may still book the route via daily auctions.
The pipeline, which usually accounts for about 15% of Russia’s annual gas exports to Europe and Turkey, has been working in reverse mode since late December, putting additional pressure on European energy prices.
Meanwhile, working gas inventories in Europe’s underground gas storage facilities were lagging behind last year’s level by 27.2% as of January 30, Gazprom said on Tuesday, citing data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.
Over 81% of the fuel delivered during the summer is already pumped out from the facilities, according to the company, while “the total amount of working gas inventories in European UGS facilities was as low as 38.1 billion cubic meters on January 30, falling by 2.7 billion cubic meters below the historical minimum for this date.”
Meaning, as gas prices soared, european providers stopped ordering, because they were betting on lower prices on spotmarkets, because it was indicated, that the price shock had external causes, part of which would have been related to acts of nature beyond human control. So there was an expectancy of prices falling again, over time. Russian gas wasnt going through the Ukraine for that period of time, because russia had enough capacity over the remaining pipeline network to deliver the booked amounts without shipping them through Ukraine. This now changed, on the same day, or the day after (unclear) european suppliers increased orders.
Three more steps to fully understand the logic here.
Energy prices for gas increased in the US as well, (opening up the Yamal-Europe pipeline actually increased them further), as - again acts of nature beyond control are cited to be a cause there as well. In fact, U.S. Natural Gas Prices Jumped by 10% on Wednesday alone, cited cause: “Frigid weather”.
That was following the single most rapid climb in gas prices ever, in a single day in the US, a week earlier.
Opening up the Yamal-Europe pipeline has also increased the gas price - after a mini slump, because again russia saw 41.3% less demand year on year, despite hitting an all time high in gas production. (What dropped according to RT were the futures, so speculation on long term price increases.)
At the same time this happens:
The Global Gas Crisis Has Made American LNG Hot Again
The global gas crunch and skyrocketing prices in Europe and Asia are laying the foundations for a revival in final investment decisions in new liquefied natural gas (LNG)
src: click
That was step one.
Step two is now looking at Habecks quote in context.
Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned against Europe’s No.1 economy becoming a “pawn” in Russia’s game. Natural gas stockpiles across the EU are at their lowest in years as tensions over Ukraine intensify.
Who stopped ordering gas?
“We must improve our preparedness for next winter,” the Green Party politician told the newspapers of the Funke Media Group and the French regional daily Ouest-France.
Habeck said the Ukraine crisis is forcing Germany to “create other import opportunities and to diversify its supply, including infrastructural issues.”
“Diversifying”, is only possible if American LNG markets are setting investment decisions right now, and they are setting them based on:
The Global Gas Crisis Has Made American LNG Hot Again
The global gas crunch and skyrocketing prices in Europe and Asia are laying the foundations for a revival in final investment decisions in new liquefied natural gas (LNG)
src: click
As well as the 14th paragraph from the top for DW.com:
He [Habeck] went on to criticize the gas market for being completely deregulated and hinted that the government may have to play a greater role.
src: click
Third step is to understand the “new role governments should play in co-regulating energy markets”.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States released a press statement two days ago.
EU-US Energy Cooperation to Address Climate Change
In 2022, the biggest existential threat to the health, prosperity, and existence of humans on Earth is climate change. Massive efforts are needed to urgently mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and, in parallel, support adaptation measures for those already affected by its negative impact. On the occasion of the EU-US Energy Council meeting in February 2022, it is useful to recall the dramatic impact of the European Recovery Program—the Marshall Plan—on the reconstruction of Europe; that the financial, technical, and political support of the United States to both former friends and foes in Europe were essential in re-establishing democracy and growth in a Europe devastated by internal strife and war. Seventy-five years since Secretary of State George Marshall announced the plan, and 50 years since the German Marshall Fund was established to build greater transatlantic and international cooperation, it is a timely moment to reflect on how the European and American powers can work together globally to address climate change immediately, adequately, and innovatively to ensure global prosperity and democracy. The cooperation of the transatlantic powers to transfer regulatory best practices and new technologies in the clean energy transition can help all global partners attain net-zero emissions by 2050. In addition, technical and financial assistance to those suffering most from the consequences of climate change must be provided to help them to urgently take measures to adapt and protect themselves.
[…]
Hydrogen
Following on from better management of electricity grids and greater supply of renewable energy, “excess” renewable electricity can be used to generate clean hydrogen. The United States and the EU have already begun cooperating bi- and multilaterally on driving forward a hydrogen market and need further impetus from regulatory, infrastructure, and investment perspectives to ensure that this component of the energy mix is in place and operational at scale. Hydrogen storage can be used to offset variability in renewable electricity.
With respect to hydrogen generated from natural gas, better and more efficient carbon capture and storage technologies at a lower cost should be encouraged to ensure that “blue” hydrogen can be ramped up as a transition fuel in parallel to the development of “green” hydrogen. The cost-benefit analysis will depend to a large degree on the market prices of natural gas; its availability; carbon capture, use, and sequestration (CCUS) costs; and alternative sources for hydrogen production. Nonetheless, for many countries, hydrogen will be an important part of the future energy mix and efforts to encourage and help with regulatory and technology improvements can drive forward this development.
Natural Gas
Natural gas will continue to play a key role as a transition fuel in the clean energy future. Replacing coal with natural gas can halve greenhouse gas emissions, but access to supply, and at a reasonable price, will be an important factor. Given the current high cost of natural gas in many parts of the world, greater supply at lower cost will be needed to encourage that displacement.
Gas as a storage and back-up fuel for electricity supply will also continue to be important during the transition period, and joint efforts to reduce methane emissions (as announced at COP26) will be crucial in creating greater public acceptance of natural gas use while ramping up the generation of renewable sources.
Sourcing natural gas and the role of international markets are essential to the smooth functioning and application of natural gas as a transition fuel; the United States and the EU should both continue to reinforce regulatory provisions to encourage the efficient functioning of those markets.
src: click
Now - how is what Habeck is doing not simply lying to people? How is what DW is doing not simply copying lies, without setting them in context?
“The truth”, should it exist, is somewhere is burried in the 14th paragraph in the article, while the fact, that soaring gas prices are enabling LNG production to begin with, is not even mentioned. German Marshal Fund of the United States is stating that for the green transition moderate gas prices are paramount, and Habeck is “increasing energy security” for germany by making “diversification of sources” mandatory?
This only makes sense, if you accuse Gazprom of intentionally increasing gas prices, for political reasons (which no one does openly, btw - otherwise, fact checking would come in), to the point where they’ve lost 41.3% of exports year on year - and from then on it stops making sense, because if you diversify by building out LNG terminals or try to procure large quantities from other sources, you do that with a price expectation of todays price levels of gas. Not lower ones. US is participating in this trend to the fullest extent (Interestingly enough OPEC didn’t flood the market with cheap natural gas this time around, to compensate for “market prices”, with expert opinion mostly stating, that this had occured in large parts because “green transition” as the foremost goal in their most important consumer markets made them bind together with russian energy producers). Markets so far dont care about political intervention in the least, that goes for the US as well (or at least?). At the same time Habeck promotes “higher energy prices” as a way to accelerate the transition towards green energy” publicly, while the people responsible for his actual policies (how could that be missed by now…) outright state, that lower natural gas prices would be needed in the mid term, to enable the energy transition. And if you think “diversifying natural gas procurement” means something other than higher gas prices - think again.
UK Gas Production Could Plunge 75% By 2030
The UK could become much more vulnerable to price shocks and geopolitical events unless new offshore fields are approved and developed—and the UK’s gas production could plummet by 75 percent
src: click
Diversifying natural gas procurement, means higher natural gas prices. Is only possible with higher natural gas prices in place. Is not in the interest of russia (If not for increasing the price of natural gas overall.). And according to Habeck was caused by market mechanisms. (Paragraph 14 in the DW article.) Because what was in the interest of russia, was fulfilling their standing obligations, and doing so within one or two days after the order amounts increased again. (At a higher price, but look at US gasmarkets at the same time at least - when making the statement that diversifying procurement would be the way out of this.)
This time I provided the throughline. I hope everyone is happy with it as is. I just cant stand the lies anymore.
