trifft eam da Schlog. Dem Club, net dem Wehrschütz.
Und die Redakteure vom Profil sollen sich schleichen.
Wenn die noch einmal *hmhmmm* zum Punkt “Selenkyj hat seine Bevölkerung bisher noch in keinem Punkt auf mögliche Konzessionen vorbereitet”, sagen höre, grab ich screencaptures, von einem Monat nach Beginn des Krieges aus, in denen das Profil 10 fluff Artikel auf einmal auf der Hauptseite hatte (lauter Helden, überall, so richtig aspirational). Selbst scrollen half nichts.
edit: Ah. Lie at 10 minutes in. No you cant “join the alliancies you want to join” (NATO). You get invited to talks, if you declare interest. Maybe. And then all members have to come to a unanimous decision on your candidate status.
NATO’s “open door policy” is based on Article 10 of its founding treaty. Any decision to invite a country to join the Alliance is taken by the North Atlantic Council on the basis of consensus among all Allies. No third country has a say in such deliberations.
Why thats called “open door policy” is beyond me, when even the open door part (to the foyer mind you) is conditional, but oh well, words. As part of public policies.
But its good to see the process of keeping the public narrative at least somewhat congruent.
Selenskyj: Können nicht gesamtes Staatsgebiet zurückholen
Die Ukraine wird Präsident Wolodymyr Selenskyj zufolge das von Russland in den vergangenen Jahren eingenommene Staatsgebiet nicht komplett mit Gewalt zurückholen können. “Ich glaube nicht, dass wir unser gesamtes Territorium mit militärischen Mitteln zurückgewinnen können”, sagte er in einem Interview, das sein Büro am Samstag in voller Länge ins Internet stellte. Bei einem solchen Vorgehen würden Hunderttausende Menschen getötet.
Das Interview wurde am Freitag im niederländischen Fernsehen gesendet.
Nach über drei Monaten Krieg. Nach hunderten Newsmeldungen, dass Selenskyj für Friedensverhandlungen wäre, mit einer Medienlandschaft, die erst in der letzten Woche erkannt haben will, dass Selenskyj nie die territoriale Integrität als Vorbedingung für Friedensverhandlungen aufgeben wollte - die jede Aussage bezüglich “Selenskyj pocht auf Friedensverhandlungen”, seit dem ersten Monat, nur um den Teil gekürzt wiedergegeben hat. Während es in den Quellen-Interviews, die referenziert wurde, immer vorgekommen ist.
Jetzt kommt die Berichterstattung, dass Selenskyj erstmalig seinen Kurs geändert hat.
Nach Monaten der Heldenstilisierung.
Nach dem Abdrucken von Kommentarbeiträgen aus dem Mercator Umfeld die Precht (Pragmatisus) und Franzobel (Pazifismus) als nicht gangbare Meinungen im Ukraine Konflikt öffentlich abqualifiziert haben.
Nach einem Monat schwerer Waffen-Forderungen, die dem spezifischen Wording nach, nach einem Aufruf des Atlantic Councils mit zwei Tagen Verspätung von ukrainischen Regierungssprechern übernommen wurden. Vor Butscha.
Nach einem Davos Gipfel auf dem die Schwellenländer Europa als “emotional agierend” umschrieben haben. Mehrheitlich.
Nach einer kompletten öffentlichen Abwertung der Position Deutschlands und Frankreichs in Davos (“man solle nicht popularisieren, dass die Ukraine den Krieg gewinnen könne” (im Sinne von “auch der letzte russische Soldat muss das ukrainische Territorium verlassen, bevor wir verhandeln”)).
Kommt Selenskyj - UNDMITIHM die gesamte westliche Medienlandschaft drauf, dass das hunderttausende Menschenleben kosten würde.
Hat ihm das vorher niemand gesagt, oder…
Diese Gesellschaft ist das abgrundtief Letzte.
Zuerst haun wir euch mit der tiefsten Propaganda (für Friedensverhandlungen aber nur, wenn die Ukraine die Krim zurück erhält, mit Papst im Land, und Panzer fordernd, in einer Woche), und de facto Hetze gegen Alternativpositionen zu. Aber später übernehmen wir die Meinung die wir nie auch nur zulassen wollten, dann doch, weil jetzt hat sie ja der Held formuliert…
Holy, f*cking shit.
Und wenns ernst gemeint ist - fällt mir trotzdem ein Stein vom Herzen.
edit: Achso… Es ist wohl doch nur das geänderte öffentliche Narrativ, da die US heute MLRS shipments freigegeben haben. Und es bald ein wenig komisch anmuten würde, wenn man mit Multiple Launch Rocket Systems Städte (dh. russische Positionen in Städten) angreift, und gleichzeitig das “wir können erst aufhören, wenn die staatliche Integrität der Ukraine wieder hergestellt ist” messaging verbreitet. Na dann…
edit2: Wow! Standard diesmal nur drei Tage zu spät irgendwo im Ticker…
USA liefern moderne Raketensysteme an die Ukraine
Die US-Regierung liefert der Ukraine im Rahmen eines neuen Sicherheitspakets moderne Mehrfachraketenwerfer zur Verteidigung gegen den russischen Einmarsch.
Mehrfachraketenwerfer mit größerer Reichweite als die Artillerie der Russen, natürlich nur zur Verteidigung. Ob die nach Nato Designation als Defensivwaffen geführt werden?
Was sagt da eigentlich der Editor des ‘Breaking Defense magazine’ laut der BBC dazu?
But can a missile really be “defensive”?
“Any weapon is defensive if you’re using it to defend yourself or your country,” says Colin Clark, editor of Breaking Defense magazine. “And since Putin is the aggressor here, if we supply weapons to those fighting against him they are, by definition, defensive.”
But equally, if President Putin supplies the rebels with arms “he might simply say he is ‘defending’ the rights of Russians,” Clark adds.
Looking at it this way, it would seem almost any weapon could qualify as “defensive” - rendering the term meaningless.
In practice, however, “there are distinctions” says Clark. In Ukraine, for instance, the US is unlikely to supply any arms which might “turn the tide of war” and allow Ukrainian troops to advance or invade opposition territory.
Oh.. der BBC Artikel selbst war die Reaktion auf einen Report von drei US Think Tanks, die mehr Anti Tank missiles für die Ukraine gefordert haben? Also Javelins?
A report by three US think-tanks this week calls for more non-lethal aid - such as drones, secure communications equipment and armoured Humvees - but also “defensive” lethal assistance, specifically anti-tank missiles.
Ah, also gehts jetzt doch nicht um diese Designation hier? -
US is unlikely to supply any arms which might “turn the tide of war” and allow Ukrainian troops to advance or invade opposition territory
Na nur gut, dass Mobile Multiple Raketenwerfer mit größerer Reichweite als russische Artillerie nicht dazu eingesetzt werden können “große Explosionen zu verursachen und viele Menschen zu töten”. -
Fighter jets, heavy artillery and ground troops would all fall into this category [offensive weapons]. But anti-tank missiles - such as the Javelin missile requested by Ukrainian military - “would not be much use if you wanted to attack someone” says Clark. “They can blow holes in armour but they’re not going to cause huge explosions and kill lots of people.”
Sonst müsste man dem Standard glatt vorwerfen hier die Bevölkerung zu verarschen.
moderne Mehrfachraketenwerfer zur Verteidigung gegen den russischen Einmarsch
Offensivwaffen (Designation) zur ausschließlich defensiven Nutzung, im eigenen (ukrainischen) Staatsgebiet, wo nach Definition Medien jede Nutzung defensiv ist. Geliefert von einer Schutzmacht, die sich nie einmischen würde um den Ausgang des Krieges signifikant zu verändern.
Denn würden sies tun, wäre der Ukraine Krieg per Definition ein proxy war.
Proxy wars are conflicts in which a third party intervenes indirectly in a pre-existing war in order to influence the strategic outcome in favour of its preferred faction. - Oxford Dictionary of Politics and International Relations (4 ed.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKp92a07nQ0
[edit: Davos Press Conferences are now hidden from public view.]
Kuleba at Davos.
Kuleba: There are now no preconditions for entering peace negotiations, apart from Ukraine “feeling” that “they are held in good faith”. And “russia will only come forward to hold peace negotiations [no in good faith used in that phrasing] - if they are starting to lose, and are covering their losses, that I can promise you.”
Selenskyjs requirements for peace negotiations on May 7th (Chatham House speech):
Ukraine will only reenter peace talks with Russia if the Kremlin guarantees the restoration of preinvasion borders and returns thousands of Ukrainians who were forcefully evacuated to Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday.
Selenskyjs requirements for peace negotiations on May 24th (the same World economic forum Kuleba is speaking at today):
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selensky insists on direct talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. In an address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, he again rejected consultations through mediators. If Putin understood reality, there would be a chance to find a diplomatic way out of the conflict. The leadership in Moscow should withdraw its troops to the lines before it began its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, Selenskyj demands. “This could be a first step towards talks.” Ukraine will fight until it has regained all its territory, he said.
I’m sure no media outlet will report any contradiction here.
Second point: In the press conference with Kuleba, he put a new spin on the “we need time to integrate the brainwashed people in the temporary occupied territories” messaging Selenskyj has put forward in the Zakaria inteview before, and spun it into “it will take time to find people who would be willing to live in regions next to russia again, which is why it is hard to gage how long a process of rebuilding Ukraine will take”.
Two aspects. First the areas currently occupied by russia are now extending into Ukraine past more than half of said border territory. Second “we need to find people who want to live there”, sounds much nicer, right?
Third point. Kuleba is now openly for other nations engaging in helpful diplomatic talks that could bring about the end of the war. It is just that “they cant impose “new lines of contact””, or “touch the territorial integrity of Ukraine, as a whole - at all”.
Apart from this being a perfect quagmire on its own, three days ago Politico published the following:
Poland’s president told Ukrainian lawmakers that “only Ukraine has the right to decide about its future,” in a speech that was the first in-person address by a foreign head of state at Ukraine’s parliament since the Russian invasion.
“Nothing about you without you,” Andrzej Duda told the assembly in Kyiv on Sunday, while slamming the “worrying voices” that have been calling on Ukraine to make concessions to end the war.
Duda received a standing ovation and photos posted on Twitter showed him embracing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Poland has welcomed around 3.5 million Ukrainian refugees and supports Ukraine’s bid to join the EU.
Duda’s comments came as Ukraine said it would refuse a cease-fire and will not give up territory to Russia. In an interview with Reuters, Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak said concessions would backfire and only encourage Russia to hit harder.
“The war will not stop [after any concessions]. It will just be put on pause for some time,” said the presidential adviser.
“After a while, with renewed intensity, the Russians will build up their weapons, manpower and work on their mistakes. … And they’ll start a new offensive, even more bloody and large-scale,” he said.
With this (pressure to not influence ukrainian decision making) being the cause both for the german governments position of “the Ukraine has to decide on its own, when it wants to contemplate ending the war”, as well as the same position featured in the UvdL speech in Davos yesterday.
Those are responses to that voiced need to not be influenced by outside pressures which now doesnt exist anymore according to Kuleba, as long as those outside pressures dont try to negotiate a new contact line, or touch the territorial integrity of the Ukraine.
Also the argument of the Ukrainian negotiator you might notice, calls for a severe deterioration of russian military capability (usually the phrase “so they cant contemplate a similar attack for at least 30 years” is used). Which coincidentally is the US position Nina Khrushcheva stated that she hears from US generals in private conversations, but not when they are speaking to media.
Now wait to read none of this in tomorrows newspaper. Because they are our heroes.
Speaking of the usual heroes, just for reference, here is Kissingers Position from two days ago: click
And here is the ukrainian response.
But dont worry, that was just another old guy responding who was brought up on the notion, that Nato expansion was a threat.
edit: Short aside on italys peace talks initiative being rejected by russia.
“If they hope that the Russian Federation will seize on any Western plan, then they haven’t understood much.”
So the russians aren’t exactly interested in peace negotiations either.
Kulebas position on the italian peace plan in Davos can be found in the video at 28min in. And it actually was what prompted Kuleba to go into laying out “his new rules for peace negotiations, facilitated by other countries”. Prefacing that with “Luigi Di Maio is a friend, so in principal I will not have anything against [something] proposed by a friend”.
In totally unrelated news, german president Frank-Walter Steinmeier was quoted saying the following yesterday:
German President to Putin: “Withdraw your troops!”
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to withdraw from Ukraine immediately at the Katholikentag in Stuttgart. “Respect Ukraine’s sovereignty, stop the fighting,” Steinmeier appealed at the opening ceremony of the church festival on Wednesday evening.
We have to be a moral power. We have to stop compromising. We have to understand this as a chance. We have to let us be guided by values. We have to be strong. We have to be forceful and not let ourselves be divided. With an honorable mention for the representative of the european commission making a pledge, that she doesnt want to hear the word appeasement anymore.
ECB brings in the immense power of pensionfunds that still could be leveraged to a much greater extent. And sees the usual dangers of economies that are too exposed to international trade.
So lets go through this. Moral power means, lets go back to a world where we have economic blocks. And not ask the Khashoggi question, because at least those issues dont touch our moral sphere, by virtue of being far enough away from our borders. It also means to look more closely into the current Xinjiang leaks, because our new public MO is that of being moral, strong and united. We have to stop compromising means, removal of vetos or the unanimity principal, in matters of EU foreign and security policy. We have to let us be guided by values means -- something, something legal tradition. We have to be strong means, to use this moment to establish the notion of becoming an international military power as well (helping the Nato 80% but also being able to conduct our own interventions, and securing our own borders), because of the potential upheavals we cant dodge anymore as a result of the current war, thats pretty much a given, we have to be forceful and not let ourselves be divided is the new mantra for my generation. Because you have to see this as a chance, right? No appeasement is the new position of the european commission, because if you’d go the appeasement route, all the other nice catchphrases wouldnt work. And game theory is for pussies.
(Which btw. is also what the prime minister of slovakia seems to have learned almost exclusively from the current crisis - he is very into this idea. To the point, where he pushes it to become the second to last point of rhetorically constructed applause lines.)
The ECB is now at the point, were it wants to leverage pension funds more forcefully and also is into reducing exposure to international trade, because of increased risk of instability (climate change, food security), because of the US not caring about securing trade routes for free anymore, and because of everyones favorite term, resilience. So essentially the aspects that climate activism was allowed to promote in Davos in the past years.
There is also another trend you can gage from the people that have been put on the panel, and that is - make northern european countries, and the countries in the east exposed to russia, matter more within the european union to keep german and french interests in check. “Do you believe that germany will take the role, to bind all those interests together to make a cohesive european union” - was one of the rhetorical questions asked, to which the answer of course was “we have to - at least when it comes to the defense union”.
(Higher dependency in terms of energy produced by northern european states, higher dependency in terms of the security infrastructure provided by northern states, more permanent NATO troops (planned) in the eastern european states, raising their profile within the NATO alliance, as well as the EU…)
And then end on an inspirational “we know this is not easy, we know we cant take democracy for granted, so lets do this”!
Climate risks, food security issues, and the US not caring about securing trade routes all over the world, particularly, is a hell of a combination.
edit2: Hearsay comment that france and germany are privately promoting “we should not be saying that the Ukrainians can win this” stance in Davos (at 8:48 in).
So just to get things straight here. The moderator doesnt know what the current end goal of the war is, every reporter questioned dodges the question except for the very invested ukrainian reporter who really conjures up an argument of “we cant loose any cities anymore - because that would mean that more people have to suffer through what Butcha (a liberated city) suffered through”. Now thats great logic, that certainly rectifies an endless war. Without mounting any opposition, or giving any clarification on that argument, naturally.
Half of the panel admits that reporting in their country is one sided, but takes it with a smile.
The german participant has a very succinct way of explaining what good journalistic performance is. “Bild was surprisingly good here, because they went on guided, embeded journalism tours (my wording, but its discussed later on, on the panel) into the warzone, and hired ukrainian journalists, and even journalists from alternative russian media. So thats “good journalism” in her mind. She repeats it three times - hiring people close to one side, and then taking the press trips, organized by one side - makes it, per definition, excellent journalism.
The group then later gets into the discussion that they dont have any reporting on the other sides action, but that would of course only be the case, because russia doesnt allow for embedded journalism on their side of the warzone, and because russia has denied journalists visas who tried to travel into russia for reporting purposes, and has enacted draconian laws against journalists working within the country (up to 25 years of prison for publishing the wrong word).
So one sided reporting is fine I guess (not my interpretation, but the interpretation of three people on the panel).
And to counteract it, and the emotional priming and good/bad narratives, and not explaining any actions taken by political actors in any sort of depth, or providing any sort of context or pro/contra arguments on likely outcomes, that at least one journalist in the panel laments, is totally fine - because journalism will “reflect on it” once the war is over.
Sadly, the moderator doesnt quite understand what that means (“the war being over”, so what state has to be reached), and she has a conceptual problem with it, but after you see half a dozen reporters simply dodge that worry, put into an actual question for the panel, in a row - you start to be ok with it, right?
Oh, and the other reason named for the factual one sidedness of reporting is “we as a nation, and especially the public took a side in this conflict, very early on”.
So any journalistic criteria goes out of the window -- of course. Because we can take sides.
So let me summarize what happens, until journalism finds its way to evaluate its maybe one sided performance, after the war.
Energy costs double. Growth rate is reduced by 0.5% points per year. About 100 people die every day (currently), what “winning the war means” is unclear. But everyone is for it. Because there is no alternative. Because values. We are on the verge of a new global hunger crisis, if the EU and Nato dont get out Ukraines next harvest via land routes going through poland, or shipping from Ukraines black sea ports (Negotiations are in progress at the UN level - because its fairly unlikely, that they will start using the searoute, that the russians just opened (cleared of mines) from Mariupol), we cant talk about initiatives to end this war, if that means, that Ukraine doesnt get total territorial integrity back. Chinas manufacturing sector going offline currently will increase inflation spikes, green transitioning as a project takes the backseat to enabling energy security, and the state minister of foreign affairs of Pakistan just stated in Davos, that if this means, that her country gets into another hunger crisis, sticking to values, to her doesnt seem like the right move here… And of course - talking about compromises right now, would just embolden the aggressor, so we needed to make that a tabu as well. Until the Ukrainian leadership reached their military goals, which are unclear. Or unlikely. Or super fair, but we cant find out, because we cant talk about them, because we need to let them decide, without outside influence. Just with outside weapon shipments.
No worries though, journalism will reevaluate their reporting, once the war is over.
Oh, and one more thing. The Ukrainian journalist in the panel got it established, that “embedded journalism” in conflict zones, really is the only kind of journalism thats even morally rectifiable, because of the inherent danger to lives, and the risk of otherwise retraumatizing people journalists might interview. With those kinds of arguments you can get a “you are so right” out of the critical minds at Presseclub Concordia - every day of the week.
Next time on Presseclub Concordia, we invited two high rank US diplomats to tell us what the US is doing in this war, and what its goals are… (9th of June 4pm MEZ, keep the date.)
Because we didnt watch to see what Nina Khrushcheva stated on this very topic six days ago…
Ich muss jetzt aber nicht heucheln und so tun als sei das alternativlos, oder für die Bevölkerung das Beste, oder die Corporate social Responsibility in Davos, die das einleiten wird, oder bereits eingeleitet hat, oder? Oder muss ich? Ich weiß das heute nicht mehr so genau.
Des is so erstaunlich wie intellektuell elastisch die heutige junge intellektuelle Elite Österreichs so ist…
Stell dir vor du beginnst dein politisches Leben als Eventmanager bei der IG Alpbach Wien (kein Beleg, die IG Webseite auf archive.org auf Änderungen zu durchstöbern, war mir dann doch irgendwie zu stalkerisch…), dann wirst du irgendwann mal Präsident der selben Vereinigung, dann gehst du in die Presse und verlautbarst, dass du als einer von zwei Gründern Fridays for Future Österreich mitgegründet hast “Weil wir sowas in Österreich auch brauchen”, also im Jahr nachdem die Oppenheimer Funds in Alpbach den Kamintalk mit dem Schlussfazit “Zu viele Investoren glauben noch Klimaschutz sei Philanthropie, wir haben noch viel Arbeit vor uns” gehalten haben, als dann Greta populär wurde. Du machst dann (im Jahr darauf) dafür die Facebook PR und freust dich zusammen mit dem Organisator des Forums darüber “dass Fridays for Future (die du ja mitgegründet hast) auch ihren Weg nach Alpbach gefunden haben”, stell dir einfach vor die Qualitätszeitungen schreiben das ab. Stell dir vor, zwei Jahre später sitzt du bei einem Klima Panel in Alpbach, und antwortest auf eine Publikumsfrage, einfach so richtig schön mit ordentlich viel Bravado, dass wenn beim Klimaschutz nichts weitergeht, man die Unternehmen einfach zwingen wird müssen. Stell dir vor dich pfeift dann das Panel zurück, weil das dann für eine Demokratie doch zu aktivistisch war, und muss dann deine Aussagen öffentlich relativieren. Was heißt relativieren… Zurücknehmen. Stell dir vor du gehst dann in deiner Rolle als Klimaaktivist so richtig auf, und wirst fortan von brutkasten.com (die in Alpbach im letzten Jahr engagiert wurden um die Morgenrunden zu produzieren und zu moderieren) als “drei Datenaktivisten und Klimaschützer Johannes Stangl” geführt, weil du Taferl hochhalten und über ökologische Nachhaltigkeit sprechen kannst, wie kein zweiter.
Stell dir vor Alpbach featured dich in ihrem Newsletter, weil du auch auf die COP in Saudi Arabien fahren und von dort berichten wolltest.
Stell dir vor du machst dann mit den Datenaktivisten ein Klimadashboard (immer noch brutkasten) und malst nebenbei Blumen neben Balkengraphen und das gefällt Complexity Science Hub Vienna, also denen die in der Plenary session des EFATEC Programms in Alpbach 2021 den Chair der Debatte zu “The complexity of great green transformations” stellen, also, was heißt stellen, mit ihrem Präsidenten besetzen - also denen gefällt das so gut, dass sie dir gleich eine Forschungsstelle am Institut bereit stellen, damit du dort deinen Doktor machen kannst.
Stell dir vor es vergeht ein Jahr.
Stell dir vor du gibst dann Pressekonferenzen, also - so mehr jetzt, also aktuell, und zwar dazu wie sich die Europäische Union sehr wohl ein Gas Boykott gegen Russland leisten könne - und zwar in indem du der Bevölkerung folgendes rätst:
Laut den Forschern um Anton Pichler und Stefan Thurner lassen sich aus den Ergebnissen klare Empfehlungen ableiten. Durch eine gleichmäßige Verteilung des übrigen Gases in Europa und den Import von Flüssiggas aus den USA oder den Golfstaaten könnte der Wegfall der russischen Importe zu einem großen Teil abgefedert werden.
Insgesamt ergebe sich dadurch für jedes Mitgliedsland ein durchschnittlicher Engpass von 17,4 Prozent. Damit würde es Staaten geben, die ihren Verbrauch reduzieren müssen, obwohl sie selbst kein Gas aus Russland importieren. Trotzdem mache es Sinn, besonders exponierte Länder wie Österreich zu schützen, sagt Mitautor Johannes Stangl. “Die wirtschaftlichen Einbrüche pflanzen sich ja über den gemeinsamen Markt fort.”
Großes Potenzial besteht laut den Forschern auch bei der Umstellung von Gaskraftwerken auf Öl. Insgesamt könnte Österreich damit rund zehn Prozent des Gasverbrauchs reduzieren. Und auch Privathaushalte könnten ihren Beitrag leisten: Senken sie ihre Raumtemperatur um ein Grad, würde Österreich 1,2 Prozent des Verbrauchs einsparen. Indirekt könne man so wirtschaftliche Einbußen verringern und Arbeitsplätze sichern, betonen die Autoren. Daher brauche es Anreize für die Bevölkerung, sich aktiv am Gassparen zu beteiligen.
Verluste in “begrenztem Ausmaß”
Auch wenn die EU-Staaten kooperieren, wären die Verluste durch einen Gaslieferstopp Russlands oder ein Embargo für die österreichische Wirtschaft “spürbar”, sagen die Forscher. Sie würden aber “in begrenztem Ausmaß” ausfallen. Die Produktionsverluste würden sich pro Monat auf 1,11 Milliarden Euro belaufen und wären damit “signifikant kleiner als die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der ersten Welle der Covid-19-Pandemie”.
Seit Kriegsbeginn hat die EU russisches Gas im Wert von rund 24 Milliarden Euro importiert. Vier Milliarden Euro gingen an finanzieller und militärischer Unterstützung an die Ukraine. “Auch Wiederaufbaukosten werden auf Milliarden Euro geschätzt, ganz zu schweigen vom menschlichen Leid in der Ukraine”, sagt Thurner. Angesichts der immensen Schäden des Krieges könne ein EU-weites Embargo daher auch eine “wirtschaftlich vertretbare Strategie sein”.
Mehrere Studien
In den vergangenen Monaten haben auch andere Institute Studien zu einem möglichen Gasstopp veröffentlicht. Im April berechnete etwa die Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OenB), dass ein kompletter Ausfall russischer Gasimporte 3,1 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) kosten würde. Bei einem prognostizierten Wachstum von 3,5 Prozent wäre die Bilanz demnach aber immer noch leicht positiv.
Von einem etwas stärkeren Einbruch ging zuletzt der wirtschaftsliberale Thinktank Agenda Austria aus. In einem “optimistischen Szenario” komme es demnach zu einem Rückgang der Wirtschaftsleistung um 1,5 Prozentpunkte, in einem “pessimistischen Szenario” zu einem Rückgang um 4,5 Prozentpunkte. Die Wirtschaft würde im Fall eines Gasembargos laut Agenda Austria “bestenfalls stagnieren”. (Jakob Pflügl, 24.5.2022)
Ich bin so neidig auf diese Prinzipientreue, dass ich mir gerade die Hand abkaue.
Zeitenwende.
Diese Gesellschaft ist das Letzte.
edit: Es fehlt noch die dumme Frage des Tages, vielleicht an einen Komplexitätsforscher - in Österreich. Ob das den Selenskyj sehr freut wenn dank 20 Jahresverträgen bald kein russisches Gas mehr durch die Ukraine fließt? Wobei, die haben ja selbst Vorkommen… (edit: Für 15 Jahre. 1.09 Billionen / 73 Milliarden )
*räusper*
Die Ukraine ist der sechstgrößte Erdgasverbraucher der Welt, ihr Verbrauch beträgt etwa 73 Milliarden Kubikmeter jährlich. Etwa 25 Prozent ihres Erdgasbedarfs produziert die Ukraine selbst, weitere 40 Prozent bezieht sie über Russland aus Turkmenistan. Der Rest kommt aus russischer Produktion.
Das macht dann die “CEOs für die Ukraine” Initiative des World Economic Forum mit Investments für Green Transitioning in die Ukraine wieder wett.
How dare the german government not tell us, that there is a Nato agreement not to deliver certain kinds of tanks to Ukraine!? We f*cking played the public for suckers for three months to the f*cking point, where anyone asking about if offensive weapons (as per Nato designation, thats a Nato term, that also never was explained to the public, but I f*cking digress) was seen as a moral offense, and now the german government DARES to put out, that there is such an agreement in a public statement!?
Not with this media at the helm! Nobody knows whats what anymore! The media laments. Thats the fault of the government!
I mean we just whipped the public up to demand everything it could, faster, to reach an outcome that it didnt understand, because of a hero, and now you say there are Nato agreements on this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFJsInqHgho
Not while Theo Kroll is in a commenting role!
And all you need to contextualize this news item is a snarky comment, really… Who the f*ck cares, why this agreement was put in place? Not the media, while Theo Kroll is still in a commenting role!
Sorry --- what? Henry Kissinger stated at Davos, that the Ukraine may have to concede some territory to russia in order to bring about lasting peace?
Lets go to our expert for everything and everyone - quickly.
Quote: “Well, the, tho optsh.., it’s ahm, nnn, I hesitate to quarrel with Henry Kissinger, but nevertheless, ..” let me double down on whatever position I’ve put out into the public for the past three months which is, that we, as the UK arent for regime change, but only for endless sanctions, that cant be relaxed unless there is regime change, and that the goal here is to humiliate russia so severely, that it never forgets that it can never have back Crimea for three generations at least, which then is obviously true, after the Ukraine has won the war, because Nato enlargement will prevent Russia from doing so.
So the fundraising effort for a ukrainian Marshall Plan is coming along well in Davos I hear? Look, Børge Brende was almost seen as having humanist tendencies, for the first time ever. Some say - even human tendencies, for the first time ever, …
But then the title of the Davos initiative surfaced… “CEOs for Ukraine.” Not that the Spiegel would comment on that these days - this is a classic news item you copy from asa/dpa and then move on to the next one.
“And it follows news earlier today, that president Selenskyj will not agree to a seize fire deal, that involves giving up any territory.”
YOUDONTSAY?!
News “earlier today” right?
Not for anyone actually following his speeches over the past three months. Like no f*cking journalist out there.
So lets summarize. We have a fixed public political position of “deliver the Ukraine the most bestest offensive attack weapons it could want”, while the country has just extended martial law to the end of august, and that includes a general draft policy (NYT “Ukraine’s Draft Dodgers Face Guilt, Shame and Reproach”). We have outsourced all of Europes decision making to “the Ukrainians have to decide when they want to stop on their own”. We’ve f*cking played the public for a sucker with CONSTANT “no, they just want the pre 24.02. position back”, until this very week. We’ve made a f*cking mockery out of people saying anything against heavy weapon shipments, because we didnt educate anyone, that this was an Atlantic council demand at first, which the Ukraine then copied, pre Butscha - or what supplying offensive weapons means for the development of the f*cking war. We’ve hardly gotten out there, that the US administration is HEAVILY involved in the daily operations of running this war, and went on a public stall out against the ukranian government, when they flirted with “independence of parts of their country” as a way to resolve the conflict - for even a week.
We have canaries in both the CFR and on the media front, that confirm, that the US might have done far too little not to escalate in the beginning (not letting the Ukraine become a part of Nato was never acceptable as a part of negotiations on their part), we have a public that is not educated, that you cant ask for Nato membership (they have no open door policy
European countries that wish to join NATO are initially invited to begin an Intensified Dialogue with the Alliance about their aspirations and related reforms. Aspirants may then be invited to join the Membership Action Plan, a programme which helps nations prepare for possible future membership. Participation does not guarantee membership, but is a key preparation mechanism.
src: click
The NATO, as a defense union is invitation based.), but that talks about it are “extended to you as an invite”, we have it on record, that those discussions in december concerning Nato extension never included european interests, and were unilateraly ended by the US - that month, while diplomatic venues were open until the end of february, but a change in positions was out of the question. On the media front, we have people like Nina Chruschtschowa on Democracy Now confirming that US generals she talks to are now telling her that the scenario they are aiming for now, is to produce a second Afghanistan for the Russian leadership, while the same generals dont say jack sh*t about that to media.
Media in general f*cked the public by telling it bullshit about Selenskyjs position in general and over time - up to and until this very week, and not just media, we have EU advisers to Josep Borrell putting out fake “what the Ukraine wants to contemplate an end of this war is the the borders of 23. 02. back” messaging this f*cking week. (Fake, because that was never the position of the Ukraine. Isn’t now, never was in the past.) Because they f*cking get “informed” through the same transatlantic friendship initiative channels, that dominate their public position.
No one fucking corrects this. No one fucking factchecks any part of it.
Now the media pivots towards “this (retaining the borders of Feburary 23rd would make it possible to engage in seize fire talks is not the defining position) is news from yesterday”, which just simply isnt true, it was inferred by the usual guests in the usual media channels, but it was never declared that way, at one time it was simply stated to be one of the prerequisites (edit: 25. 05.: die Wiener Zeitung schafft es ENDLICH nach drei Monaten in denen es übergangen wurde, die komplette Position Selenskyjs zu bestätigen. Wer den Teil warum Selenskyj sich unbedingt mit Putin treffen muss braucht, findet ihn, vor zwei Monaten, bei Zakaria.) -- but only in a configuration, where Selenskyj would then be able to talk to Putin and dictate to him a peace, where Putin would have all russian military leave the Ukraine and give up Crimea, to be molded into a self governed zone, as part of the Ukraine, for some time - while Selenskyj actively thinks about how to reintegrate the brainwashed people (his words on CNN, not mine)) and just a way to get the public back on track to anything resembling something close to reality -- after all the political positions are now fixed on the national and EU level…
And to summarize this in one paragraph, you only need to know, that the entire german speaking media system f*cking eat up the cool aid from transatlantic thinktank initiatives, for three months in a row, the ECFR pitched positions for a f*cking month that never were in the european interest longterm as “the future concepts for the european union”, and provided the f*cking “the public needs to be brought in line to be in favor of a prolonged war” agenda setting in f*cking headline articles their CEO wrote, which the f*cking newsmedia copied verbatim, without as much as leaving a f*cking word of comment on what they were publishing at a time. Which as part of their job ethics they arent allowed to. This is going agains journalistic best practices. You dont simply let someone else promote agenda setting items for an entire society at large, while giving them a platform, and not commenting in the least. And they did.
Or even shorter, if the US isnt running this war, and the entirety of EU decision makers, and much more the entire german and austrian media system didnt curl themselves up and into a corner and started to put out their emotional storytelling and propaganda for three months straight, failing to even listen to Selenskyj speeches in full -- it would be a f*cking monumental coincidence leading to the same outcome, that took place over the past three months.
Using US friendship initiatives as central incubators for now dominant narratives and positions on the topic, that were invented by other US thinktanks months prior.
Until the f*cking goal of “everyone who wanted to argue for a compromise - is publicly ridiculed and pacifists get hanged for being “oldfashioned” and crazy” and all the decision aspects got delegated to a ukrainian government (that got the “cut all the insane parts out of the speeches they are holding” treatment from the entire media system since the war started), was fulfilled --
and then, after the f*cking G7 meeting, and after you had every german official state in public, that the Ukraine itself has to choose every aspect, of when and how it wants to enter into peace talks, with a public still not noticing that the US is pumping in 12x the funds into a military solution of this war, than the EU, germany and france combined, the curtain drops.
Now Ukraine is “more outspoken, because they now think, they have everything they need to win!”.
Now you’ve gotten what you wanted all along. And everyone even taking the word “seize fire” in their mouth is a F*CKINGPARIA, thanks to german and austrian media.
Because, thats not what the Ukraine wants.
And winning, really is the only way out of it.
Thank you for fulfilling your democratic duty, media system, truly the institutional fourth pillar of democracy.
Diese Gesellschaft ist das Letzte. Das nächste Mal, wenn ihr die Gesellschaft für drei Monate verarschen wollt, setzt euch wenigstens ne lustige Kappe auf, dann hab auch ich dabei meinen Spass…
edit: Oh sorry, I f*cking forgot, the f*cking journalistic questions after f*cking bilateral press conferences between germany and the ukraine (held by Habeck, because - well, he isnt foreign minister, so of course you use him to pump the f*cking messaging on bilateral talks with Kuleba into the german public), that simply got dropped and not answered, when they dared to ask anything about this matter - two weeks ago… I guess some journalistic outlets did try. Its just that the public at large didnt notice, that that might be important work, so who the fuck cares, right?
SLEEPTIGHT! Don’t let the bedbugs bite! HOWMUCHDIDITTAKEFORYOUAS A JOURNALISTTOSWALLOWTHISINDIVIDUALLY? 2000 Euro? 1000 Euro? A dinner with transatlantic friends?
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